2026-01-16-中银国际-12月新增贷款回稳_货币政策释放宽松信号_5页_1mb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Michael MENG (852)39886433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance Last close % 1D % YTD HSI 26,924 (0.3) 5.0 HSCEI 9,267 (0.5) 4.0 HSCCI 4,154 0.4 3.4 MSCI HK 14,490 0.3 5.9 MSCI CHINA 87 (1.0) 5.0 FTSE CHINA A50 15,340 0.0 0.2 CSI 300 4,751 0.2 2.6 TWSE 30,811 (0.4) 6.4 SENSEX 83,628 (0.3) (1.9) NIKKEI 225 54,111 (0.4) 7.5 KOSPI 4,798 1.6 13.8 ASX 200 8,821 (0.1) 1.7 DJIA 49,442 0.6 2.9 S&P 500 6,944 0.3 1.4 FTSE 100 10,239 0.5 3.1 * US data as of 15 Jan 2026 Commodity Price Performance Last close % 1D %YTD Brent Crude (US$/bbl) 64 (4.1) 4.8 Gold (US$/oz) 4,616 (0.2) 6.9 Copper (US$/t) 13,189 0.2 6.2 Aluminum (US$/t) 3,203 (0.5) 7.9 Nickel (US$/t) 18,495 5.8 12.1 CH domestic steel rebar 25 (RMB/t) 3,244 0.1 0.1 CH domestic high speed wire (RMB/t) 3,700 (0.0) 0.3 CH domestic hot rolled steel (RMB/t) 3,287 (0.1) 0.5 CH domestic cold rolled steel (RMB/t) 3,800 (0.1) (0.1) BDI (index) 1,608 0.0 (14.3) * US data as of 15 Jan 2026 Key Macro and Earnings Releases Con-sensus Last actual Retail Sales YoY (CH) 19/1 1.1 1.3 Industrial Production YoY (CH) 19/1 5.0 4.8 Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY (CH) 19/1 (3.1) (2.6) Property Investment YTD YoY (CH) 19/1 (16.5) (15.9) Residential Property Sales YTD YoY (CH) 19/1 -- (11.2) Surveyed Jobless Rate (CH) 19/1 5.2 5.1 GDP YoY (CH) 19/1 4.5 4.8 GDP YTD YoY (CH) 19/1 5.0 5.2 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (CH) 20/1 3.0 3.0 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (CH) 20/1 3.5 3.5 PCE Price Index YoY (US) 22/1 -- 2.8 Core PCE Price Index YoY (US) 22/1 2.8 2.8 Personal Income MoM (US) 22/1 0.4 0.4 Personal Spending MoM (US) 22/1 0.5 0.4 GDP Annualized QoQ (US) 22/1 4.3 4.3 S&P Global US Services PMI (US) 23/1 52.8 52.5 U. of Mich. Sentiment (US) 23/1 54.0 54.0 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (US) 23/1 52.0 51.8 BOJ Target Rate 23/1 0.8 0.8 Key BOCI Events Corp Access Date Tony Li - Consumer Sector Marketing (1x1) BJ 16 Jan 中银国际在线专家会-中国基座大模型技术与商业化近况更新(Tencent Meeting at 4:30pm) 16 Jan 中银国际在线专家会-潮玩市场：2026年焦点在哪？(Tencent Meeting at 4:30pm) 19 Jan 中银国际2026年中国投资展望 19-20 Jan 中银国际在线专家会-比亚迪黑科技前瞻与2026年全链条战略展望(Tencent Meeting at 5:30pm) 21 Jan Please register with your BOCI sales rep. # MORNING INSIGHTS # New loans stabilised in December as policymakers sent # loosening signal # Zhang Wan/Penny Peng Macro & Strategy | China Economy (i) New loans in December reached RMB910bn, down RMB80bn YoY. December new loans were relatively stable, narrowing the YoY decline from $-32.8\%$ in November to $-8.1\%$ . (ii) In December, corporate short-term loans, medium-and long-term loans as well as bond financing bounced up YoY while credit demand of household sector remained sluggish. (iii) The monetary policymakers announced a series of incremental loosening policies of structural monetary tools, including lowering the refinancing interest rate, increasing the quota and expanding the usage areas. The monetary policymakers also sent relatively loosening signals through indicating the room of further RRR cut and policy rate cut. # 12月新增贷款回稳，货币政策释放宽松信号 # 张婉/彭助 (i)12月新增贷款9,100亿元人民币，较去年同期少800亿元，同比跌幅从11月的 $32.8\%$ 收窄至 $8.1\%$ ，表现有所趋稳。但新增社融继续受到新增政府债券融资大幅减少的拖累，同比下降 $22.6\%$ 至2.2万亿元。 (ii) 12月企业中长期、短期贷款和债券融资均表现较好，但家庭部门信贷需求持续疲弱。 (iii) 货币政策制定者同时宣布了一系列结构性政策工具的宽松政策，包括下降再融资利率，增强再贷款额度以及优化使用范围。同时政策制定者明确表示降息降准仍有空间，释放相对宽松信号。 # TSMC - BUY (TT & ADR) (2330 TT/NT$1,690.00, TP: NT$2,420.00 ↑; TSM US/US$327.11, TP: US$445.00 ↑) # Haofei Chen/Freya Ren Target Price Change | TMT (i) TSMC delivered a strong 4Q25 beat with EPS $8\%$ above consensus on superior margins, while guiding 1Q26 sales/margins ahead of Street expectations. The robust 2026 outlook projects sales growing close to $30\%$ YoY with elevated US\$52-56bn CAPEX, surpassing pre-result consensus and effectively quenching skepticism regarding an imminent AI bubble burst. (ii) Management materially lifted its long-term guidance, targeting $25\%$ / mid-to-high 50s Group / AI sales CAGR (2024-29) and a structural gross margin of $56\%$ . Expansion focuses on N2 capacity expansion, expected to double annually to nearing 200k wpm by end-2027, alongside strategic CoWoS-L growth to support larger reticle-size AI packaging demand. (iii) We maintain $\text{BUY}$ and raise target prices to $\text{NT}\\(2,420 / \text{US}\$ 445 $, based on 24x 2026-27 P/E and a $16\%$ premium to reflect the rising clarity of AI demand longevity. With AI projected to comprise two-thirds of sales by 2030, TSMC's unique "Everyone's Foundry" model justifies a premium valuation in the Foundry 2.0 era. # 台积电-全面達標，AI藍圖完美跨越2026年(买入-TT&ADR) # *2330.TT *TSM.US # 陈昊飞/任雅茜 (i) 台积电 4Q25 业绩表现强劲，凭借优异的利润率表现，EPS 较市场一致预期高出 $8\%$ ，且 1Q26 收入/毛利指引亦优于市场预期。其强劲的 2026 年展望预估营收年增近 $30\%$ ，资本支出提升至 520-560 亿美元，这不仅超越了业绩发布前的市场共识，也有力消除了关于人工智能泡沫即将破裂的疑虑。 (ii)管理层显著上调了长期发展指引，目标设定为在2024至2029年间实现 $25\% / 50\%$ 区间中高段的集团/AI销售年复合增长率，并将结构性毛利率目标定为 $56\%$ 。扩张重心在N2制程产能扩张上，预计其产能将以每年翻倍的速度增长，到2027年底将达到每月近20万片晶圆；同时，公司也将战略性地发展CoWoS-L先进封装技术，以支持更大光罩尺寸的人工智能芯片封装需求。 (iii)我们维持“买入"评级，并将目标价上调至2,420新台币/445美元，基于24倍的2026-27年预期市盈率且ADR享有 $16\%$ 的溢价，以反映人工智能需求长期性的日益明朗。预计到2030年，人工智能相关业务将贡献公司三分之二的销售，台积电独特的"Everyone's Foundry"商业模式，使其在"晶圆代工2.0时代"理应获得估值溢价。 # Li Ning - HOLD # (2331 HK/HK$19.37, TP: HK$18.90) # Tony Li, CFA/Penny Peng Company Update | Consumer Products (i) Li Ning's 4Q25 retail sell-through was down LSD YoY, still impacted by weak consumer sentiment. Mgmt. suggested that full-year 2025 results were in line with guidance, with revenue achieving marginal growth and NPM approaching the upper end of HSD, yet we see this implied surprises for the full year earnings to be released in Mar 2026. (ii) Looking ahead, despite its recent attempt to lift brand images, we believe Li Ning's inflection point may take longer, as athleisure remains in adjustment and Olympic marketing investments may take time to boost sales. (iii) Overall, we view the current valuation of $17\mathrm{x} / 16\mathrm{x}$ 2025/2026 P/E appears full. Maintain HOLD. # 李宁 - 2025 年四季度：全年指引达成，但压力仍存（持有） # *2331.HK # 李嘉豪/彭助 (i) 李宁 2025 年四季度零售流水同比下降单位数，持续受到疲弱的消费者情绪影响。管理层表示，2025 年全年业绩符合指引，收入实现小幅增长，净利润率接近高单位数区间的上限。我们认为这意味着将于 3 月公布的全年业绩可能会超出部分市场预期。 (ii)展望未来，尽管李宁近期努力提升品牌形象，但我们认为其业绩拐点仍需时间。运动生活品类仍在调整阶段，而奥运相关的营销投入可能需要更长时间才能有效转化为销售增长。 (iii)整体来看，我们认为当前17倍/16倍的2025/2026市盈率估值已较为充分，维持“持有”评级。 # Uranium sector – Strong start with more policy tailwinds ahead # Tony Fei, CFA/Jolin Liu News Alert | Energy Transition (i) Uranium started the year strong, with spot price up US $2/lb to US$ 83.5/lb and major uranium ETF rallying $22\%$ YTD. (ii) On 14 Jan, the White House issued a proclamation asking for addressing the reliance on imports of critical materials. This could potentially lead to supportive policies, such as an import price floor for uranium, further improving uranium investment sentiment, in our view. (iii) We remain positive on uranium sector in 2026. Our sector top pick remains Kazatomprom on attractive valuation and exposure to uranium price upside. We also like CGN Mining and Cameco. # 天然铀行业更新-开年强势，东风可期（消息快报） # 费云青/刘卓琳 (i) 年以来，天然铀表现强势。现货铀价上涨2美元至83.5美元/磅，主要天然铀ETF年初至今已上涨 $22\%$ (ii)当地时间1月14日，白宫发布声明努力解决美国关键原材料依赖进口的情况。这可能会带来更为积极的政策，如声明中提及的最低价格政策，我们认为可能进一步提振天然铀投资情绪。 (iii)我们维持对天然铀行业的乐观看法。首选标的仍是估值吸引、铀价敞口高的哈原工，并继续推荐中广核矿业和卡梅科。 # CMOC Group – 2025 earnings slightly missed; guides for decent copper output growth in 2026 (3993 HK/HK$ 22.04, HOLD; 603993 CH/RMB24.05, NR) # Lawrence Lau, CFA/Rainey Dai News Alert | Metals & Mining (i) CMOC expects its net profit to reach RMB20.0-20.8bn in 2025, up $48 - 54\%$ . Its copper output grew $14\%$ YoY to 741k tonnes in 2025 and it guides for $3 - 11\%$ YoY growth in copper output in 2026. (ii) The company's 2025 profit is $4 - 8\%$ below our forecast although its copper output is $5\%$ above our forecast. It implies either higher cost or higher hedging loss. Its target 2026 copper output is $6 - 14\%$ above our forecast. (iii) At this stage, we leave our forecasts and HOLD rating unchanged. The market may react positively to its output guidance. # 洛阳钼业-2025年盈利小幅低于预期；指引其2026年铜产量有不俗增长 (消息快报) *3993.HK *603993.CH # 刘志成/戴东云 (i) 洛阳钼业预计其2025年净利润将达到200亿至208亿元人民币，同比增长48-54%。其2025年铜产量同比增长14%至74.1万吨，并预计2026年铜产量将同比增长3%至11%。 (ii)尽管该公司2025年的铜产量比我们预测高出 $5\%$ ，但其利润仍比我们预测低 $4\%$ 至 $8\%$ 。这意味着成本上升或套期保值损失增加。其2026年铜产量目标比我们预测高出 $6\%$ 至 $14\%$ (iii) 目前，我们维持对该公司预测和“持有”评级不变。市场可能对其产量指引做出积极反应。 # Certifications and Important Disclosure All views expressed in this material reflect the personal views of each analyst about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. In addition, no part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this material. 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