> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # SMIC (981 HK) Summary ## Core Content SMIC reported strong second-quarter 2026 results, with record revenue of **US\$3,006 million**, representing a **20.0% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ)** and **36.1% year-over-year (YoY)** increase. The gross profit margin (GPM) also exceeded expectations, reaching **25.3%**, up **5.2 percentage points (ppts)** QoQ and **4.9 ppts YoY**, surpassing both the company's guidance and Bloomberg consensus. The strong performance was primarily driven by **pricing increases**, particularly in AI-related and power management segments, as well as improved utilization and a more favorable product mix. The company raised its **FY26/27E revenue forecasts by 5.3%/9.2%** and **GPM estimates by 3.4/2.3 ppts**, maintaining a **BUY** rating and adjusting the target price (TP) to **HK\$119**, based on a **5x FY27E P/B** valuation. This TP is significantly higher than the **~4.0x** average of its peers. ## Main Points - **Revenue Growth**: - 2Q26 revenue rose to **US\$3,006 million**, up **20.0% QoQ** and **36.1% YoY**. - 2Q26 shipments increased by **14.4% QoQ**, supported by AI demand, customer pull-forward, and newly qualified capacity. - **GPM Improvement**: - GPM reached **25.3%**, **5.2 ppts QoQ** and **4.9 ppts YoY**, well above guidance and consensus. - The margin improvement was mainly driven by **ASP uplift** and **product mix**, not just by scale or wafer size. - **Net Profit**: - Attributable net profit hit **US\$479 million**, a **+142.7% QoQ** and **+261.7% YoY**, significantly beating the Bloomberg consensus of **~US\$257 million**. - Operating profit was **US\$534 million**, up **254.5% YoY**, indicating strong core earnings. - **Pricing Strategy**: - SMIC implemented **targeted price hikes**, focusing on **AI-related chips** and **power management**, rather than blanket increases. - The company emphasized **pricing discipline** and is not the most aggressive in raising prices. - **Demand Mix Shift**: - **Industrial & Automotive** demand increased to **16.5%** of wafer revenue, while **Smartphone** exposure declined to **16.9%**. - **Consumer Electronics** remained the largest category at **44.2%**, with **PC & Tablet** rising and **Connectivity & IoT** declining. - **Localization and Capacity**: - **China** accounted for **90.2%** of revenue, up **6.1 ppts YoY** and **1.3 ppts QoQ**. - **12-inch wafer revenue** increased to **78.2%**, reflecting the company's strategic shift to larger wafer production and a more localized customer base. - **Depreciation Impact**: - **Depreciation** in 2Q26 reached **~US\$1.2 billion**, with full-year depreciation expected to increase by **~30% YoY** to **~US\$5 billion**. - This is a **near-term margin headwind**, but management expects **depreciation to peak around 2027**. - **EBITDA**: - 2Q26 EBITDA margin reached **70.2%**, boosted by **FX gains** and **fair-value changes**, but is expected to remain healthy with **~95% utilization** and **stable ASP**. - **3Q26 Guidance**: - Revenue is expected to grow **2-4% QoQ**, and GPM is projected to reach **26-28%**, despite incremental depreciation and seasonal electricity costs. - **Investor Concerns**: - **Net profit** overstates **normalized earnings** due to **non-recurring items** like FX gains and fair-value changes. - **Utilization ceiling** limits further volume-driven upside, as **~5%** of capacity is reserved for R&D. - **Key risks** include **weaker pricing**, **slower capacity ramp**, and **geopolitical uncertainties**. ## Key Financial Highlights | Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (US$ mn) | 8,030 | 9,327 | 12,018 | 14,248 | 15,786 | | YoY growth (%) | 27.0 | 16.2 | 28.9 | 18.6 | 10.8 | | GPM (%) | 18.0 | 21.0 | 24.9 | 25.6 | 26.4 | | Net profit (US$ mn) | 492.7 | 685.1 | 1,927.4 | 2,574.8 | 2,953.2 | | YoY growth (%) | (45.4) | 39.0 | 181.3 | 33.6 | 14.7 | | Net margin (%) | 10.2 | 12.4 | 16.0 | 18.1 | 18.7 | | P/B (x) | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | ## Peer Comparison | Company | Ticker | FY26E P/B | FY27E P/B | FY26E EPS (US$) | FY27E EPS (US$) | FY26E GPM | FY27E GPM | |---------|--------|----------|----------|----------------|----------------|----------|----------| | CR Micro | 688396 CH | 3.3 | 3.0 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 28.1 | 29.6 | | Silan Micro | 600460 CH | 4.2 | 3.8 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 20.7 | 22.5 | | TSMC | 2330 TT | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.34 | 4.36 | 66.5 | 66.1 | | UMC | 2303 TT | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 33.4 | 37.7 | | ASE | 3711 TT | 6.7 | 5.8 | 0.58 | 0.87 | 21.2 | 23.7 | | VIS | 5347 TT | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 32.3 | 31.6 | | GFS | GFS US | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.89 | 2.56 | 30.2 | 33.3 | | Intel | INTC US | 4.8 | 4.4 | 1.46 | 1.96 | 41.7 | 43.9 | | Hua Hong | 1347 HK | 4.3 | 4.0 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 15.9 | 18.3 | ## Analyst Recommendations - **CMBIGM Rating**: **BUY** - **Target Price**: **HK\$119** - **Previous TP**: **HK\$110** - **Up/Downside**: **76.2%** - **Current Price**: **HK\$67.55** ## Key Risks - **Weaker pricing** in key segments - **Slower capacity ramp** than expected - **Geopolitical uncertainties**, particularly affecting the semiconductor industry ## Conclusion SMIC's strong 2Q26 performance, driven by **targeted pricing** and **increased utilization**, has led to a **revised positive outlook**. The company is expected to maintain **solid revenue growth** and **margin expansion** in the coming quarters, supported by **AI-driven demand** and **strategic capacity reallocation**. Despite **depreciation pressures** and **utilization ceilings**, the **BUY** rating and **higher target price** reflect confidence in its **strategic position**, **scale**, and **technology breadth** within China's foundry ecosystem. Investors should be cautious about **non-recurring items** affecting **net profit** and focus on **core operating performance**.