2025-02-09-世界经济论坛-全球经济未来_2030年的生产力（英）_31页_8mb

Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030

Core Content

This white paper by the World Economic Forum and Accenture explores the future of productivity, a key factor in economic growth and living standards. It presents four scenarios for productivity in 2030, based on the interplay between technological development and human capital growth.

Main Viewpoints

• Productivity is critical for economic growth and living standards, but it has slowed significantly since the 2008 financial crisis.
• The productivity slowdown is attributed to a combination of factors, including structural barriers, slow technology adoption, and weak human capital development.
• Technology is a major driver of future productivity, with the potential to significantly boost output. However, the rate and impact of adoption vary by region and sector.
• Human capital is equally important, as it enables the effective use of technology and drives innovation. There is a growing gap in skills and leadership between high- and low-income economies.
• Scenario analysis is used to explore potential futures, helping decision-makers anticipate changes and develop strategies.

Key Information

• Productivity Growth Trends:

  • Global productivity growth has slowed, with total factor productivity (TFP) growth dropping from 1.6% in the early 2000s to 0.6% post-2008 financial crisis.
  • In low-income economies, TFP growth has fallen to near 0% since 2020.
  • Labour productivity in high-income economies is nearly 15 times that of low-income economies.
  • Asia, particularly Central, East, and South Asia, has shown higher productivity growth rates than the rest of the world since 2010.

• Technology and AI:

  • AI is expected to have a major impact on productivity, especially in information and technology services, financial services, and energy technology.
  • The adoption of AI varies by region and sector, with high-income economies adopting it more rapidly than low-income ones.
  • The potential productivity gains from AI depend on how effectively it is integrated into business models.

• Human Capital:

  • Human capital is essential for leveraging technological advances and driving productivity.
  • A lack of skills and visionary leadership is cited as the primary obstacle to AI adoption.
  • Education and training systems must adapt to new technological demands to ensure sustainable productivity growth.

• Four Scenarios for 2030:

  1. Productivity Leap: A virtuous cycle of innovation and human capital development leads to significant productivity gains and improved living standards.
  2. Automation Overload: Technology advances outpace human capital development, leading to wealth concentration and productivity gaps.
  3. Human Advantage: Human capital development outpaces technology, centering economic activity on people and relying on creative use of existing technologies.
  4. Productivity Drought: Simultaneous slowdowns in both technology and human capital development result in stagnation in productivity and living standards.

Industry Exposure and Implications

• 12 sectors are analyzed, with four broad clusters identified based on their exposure to productivity trends.
• Five sectors are examined in detail: information technology and digital communications, financial services, manufacturing, energy and materials, and education.
• Sectors like information and technology services, financial services, and energy technology are expected to benefit most from AI adoption.
• In low-income economies, agriculture and trade have had a significant impact on productivity slowdowns.

Strategies for the Future

To maximize opportunities and mitigate risks, the paper recommends the following strategies:

• Promote synergies between technology and human capital development.
• Strengthen anticipatory and data-driven decision-making.
• Future-proof education and training systems.
• Anticipate talent needs and develop workforce transition policies.
• Accelerate the adoption and diffusion of emerging technologies.
• Invest in the trustworthiness of emerging technologies.
• Strengthen critical infrastructure.
• Bridge regional and sectoral gaps to reduce productivity divergence.
• Strengthen resilience to geopolitical disruption.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to technology and human capital development to drive sustainable productivity growth. It encourages leaders to think critically about future trends and take proactive steps to adapt and shape the global economy.