2008年-世界发展银行全球_Africa_Development_Indicators_2007_180页_2mb

Summary of Spreading and Sustaining Growth in Africa (2007)

Core Content

This document, Spreading and Sustaining Growth in Africa (2007), is a comprehensive report by the World Bank on the economic and social development of Sub-Saharan Africa. It outlines the region's economic growth trends, key development indicators, and the role of policy and governance in shaping these outcomes. The report emphasizes the importance of spreading and sustaining growth across the continent to improve living standards and meet development goals.

Main Views

Economic Growth Trends

• Positive Growth Shift: African economies have shifted from collapse (1975–85) and stagnation (1985–95) to a path of faster and more stable growth since the mid-1990s.
• Average Growth: In 2005 and 2006, the average growth rate in Sub-Saharan Africa was 5.4 percent. The consensus projection for 2007 is 5.3 percent, and for 2008, 5.4 percent.
• Growth Drivers: Oil and mineral exporters led the growth due to high global prices. However, 18 non-mineral economies, representing over a third of the population, also showed strong performance.
• Growth Volatility: Growth in Africa has been more volatile than in other regions, often fluctuating between strong growth and severe declines, which has hindered long-term progress.

Key Economic Indicators

• GDP and Incomes: GDP growth has been rising in tandem with global averages. Per capita income is increasing, aligning with other developing regions.
• Investment and Productivity: Investment increased from 16.8% to 19.5% of GDP between 2000 and 2006. However, productivity remains low, especially due to high indirect business costs (18–35% of total costs in Africa compared to 8% in China).
• Trade Performance: Exports have grown significantly, with non-oil producers also showing improvement. However, growth rates for non-oil exporters are still not high enough to drive substantial export-led growth.
• Infrastructure and Investment: Infrastructure is under stress, and investment in human and physical capital remains low. Despite this, some countries have made progress in improving efficiency and productivity.

Policy and Governance

• Policy Reforms: There has been a notable improvement in macroeconomic management and trade policy over the past decade.
• CPIA Scores: The average Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) score for African countries increased from 2.8 in 1995 to 3.2 in 2006. More countries now meet the "good performance" threshold of 3.5 on a 1–6 scale.
• Doing Business Rankings: In 2006/07, the average rank of African countries in the World Bank's Doing Business indicators was 136 out of 178. Some countries, like Mauritius and Botswana, performed better than others.
• Business Environment Reforms: Forty-six Sub-Saharan countries introduced reforms in the past year, with Ghana and Kenya among the top global reformers. Burkina Faso, for instance, reduced business entry procedures from 12 to 8 and time from 45 days to 34.

Development Outcomes

• Human Development: Education and health outcomes have improved, but challenges remain. Life expectancy gains have stalled or retreated in some countries, and poor schooling hampers productivity.
• HIV/AIDS and Malaria: These diseases continue to pose significant challenges to development, especially in terms of health outcomes and economic productivity.
• Private Sector and Trade: The private sector is becoming more active, and trade integration is increasing. However, the business environment still needs improvement to support sustained growth.
• Regional Integration: Trade blocs and regional integration efforts are gaining momentum, though progress varies across countries.

Key Information

Growth Types

• Slow-Growth Economies: Represent 36.7% of the population, with GDP growth below 4% annually.
• Diversified, Sustained-Growth Economies: Represent 35.6% of the population, with GDP growth of 4% or more for at least 10 years.
• Oil Exporters: Represent 27.7% of the population, with some countries showing high growth rates (e.g., Equatorial Guinea at 30.8%).

Challenges

• Productivity Deficit: Africa's total factor productivity has been negative since the 1960s, and even in recent years, it has contributed little to growth.
• High Indirect Costs: Infrastructure and other indirect business costs are significantly higher in Africa than in other regions, limiting competitiveness.
• Sustainability of Growth: Growth pickups are often short-lived and followed by sharp declines, making it essential to sustain growth and avoid economic setbacks.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while Africa has made progress in economic growth, the sustainability of this growth is crucial. It emphasizes that improving policy and governance, enhancing the business environment, and addressing infrastructure and productivity issues are key to achieving long-term development. The World Bank highlights the importance of data in monitoring progress and making informed policy decisions.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: GDP growth rates by country type (1996–2005).
• Table 2: African export growth rates by country type (2003–2006).
• Table 3: Average ease of doing business rank by region (2006/07).
• Figures 1–12: Illustrate trends in per capita income, macroeconomic management, productivity, and trade performance.

References and Tools

• The document includes a foreword, acknowledgments, notes, and references.
• It also provides technical notes, indicator tables, and user guides for the Africa Development Indicators CD-ROM.
• Africa Development Indicators Online is introduced as a new tool for accessing and analyzing data on economic, social, and governance indicators.