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Summary of "Towards a Universal Arms Trade Treaty: Understanding Barriers and Challenges in South-East Asia"

Core Content

This report, conducted by RAND Europe and funded by the United Nations Trust Facility Supporting Cooperation on Arms Regulation (UNSCAR), aims to support the universalisation of the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) by identifying barriers and challenges to its ratification and implementation in South-East Asia and related regions. The study explores both national and regional factors that influence the adoption and enforcement of the ATT, and provides actionable recommendations for overcoming these challenges.

Main Objectives

• To identify barriers to the ratification and implementation of the ATT in South-East Asia and related regions.
• To generate proposals for action at national, regional, and international levels to support the universalisation of the ATT.
• To contribute to the strategic goals of UNSCAR, which include promoting the ATT's ratification and improving the effectiveness of assistance to member states (MS).

Key Findings

Global Arms Trade Overview

• The international trade in conventional arms is a global phenomenon, involving both major producers and importers.
• As of 2016, approximately 60 countries regularly export conventional arms, and over 150 import them.
• The global volume of conventional arms transfers has declined since the end of the Cold War, reaching a low in 2002, but has since increased again.
• In 2015, the estimated financial value of the global arms trade was at least $94.5 billion.
• The United States, Russia, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have historically been the largest arms exporters, while China and India have been the leading importers since the late 1990s.
• The trade in conventional arms involves many transit and transhipment countries.

Regional Arms Trade in South-East Asia

• South-East Asian countries traditionally rely on foreign-produced weapons and equipment, with limited domestic production.
• Major suppliers include the Russian Federation, China, the United States, Germany, and France.
• Smaller-scale imports also come from countries like the Republic of Korea and the Czech Republic.
• The region has seen a significant increase in arms imports, with the ASEAN region importing over $31 billion in conventional arms between 2010 and 2015, compared to just over $360 million in exports.
• The increase in military spending in the region is driven by rising security concerns, particularly in the South China Sea and due to the actions of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Arms Trade Trends and Impacts

• The growing availability of small arms and light weapons (SALW) has contributed to an increase in conflicts and insecurity.
• Civilian casualties in modern warfare are estimated to account for over 80% of all casualties, with some suggesting that up to 90% are caused by SALW.
• Illicit arms trafficking remains a significant issue, with its consequences often being disproportionately devastating.
• The ATT aims to prevent and eradicate the illicit trade of conventional arms and to establish common international standards for their transfer.

Challenges and Barriers

• Political, administrative, legal, budgetary, and technical barriers exist to the ratification and implementation of the ATT.
• The concept of 'national systemic readiness' is central to understanding these challenges, as it encompasses the preparedness of a state to implement the ATT effectively.
• The study highlights the need for alignment of timelines, budgetary planning, and harmonisation of requirements among ASEAN member states to facilitate joint procurement and industrial cooperation.

Recommendations

• Strengthening national legal frameworks and control lists is essential for effective implementation of the ATT.
• Enhancing transparency and accountability in arms trade is crucial to combat illicit trafficking and promote responsible action.
• Building capacity and promoting best practices can support the ratification and accession of non-signatories.
• Regional cooperation through initiatives like the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) can create synergies and opportunities for joint procurement and industrial development.

Methodology

• The study involved a mixed-methodology approach, including document review, stakeholder interviews, and participation in regional workshops.
• The analysis focused on ten Asian states, including seven South-East Asian countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and three from South and East Asia (India, Sri Lanka, Republic of Korea) as a control group.
• Document review included national reports, statements, press releases, and studies by NGOs and academics.
• Interviews were conducted under the Chatham House Rule using bespoke questionnaires.

Conclusion

• The ATT represents a significant step towards regulating the international trade in conventional arms.
• The report provides a detailed analysis of the barriers to its universalisation in South-East Asia and offers a framework for understanding and addressing these challenges.
• The findings suggest that while the ATT has the potential to enhance arms regulation and security, its implementation requires sustained political will, institutional capacity, and regional cooperation.

Key Information

• The ATT was adopted in 2013 and entered into force on 24 December 2014.
• It is the first international legally binding treaty to control the transfer of conventional arms.
• The study was supported by the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) and the United Nations Regional Centre for Peace and Disarmament in Asia and the Pacific (UNRCPD).
• The report contributes to the strategic goals of UNSCAR and the broader effort to universalise the ATT.

References

• Fleurant et al. (2016)
• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
• IHS Jane's (2016)
• Deloitte (2016)
• Hutt (2015)
• Kytomaki (2014)

Figures and Tables

• Figure 2.1: Trends in international exports of conventional arms
• Figure 2.2: Major importers of conventional arms, by region, 2006-2010 and 2011-2015
• Figure 2.3: Average value of military expenditure in the ASEAN Community
• Table 3.1: Participation of selected countries in East and South-East Asia in the ATT process

Acknowledgements

• The authors express gratitude to the donors of UNSCAR and the representatives of participating member states.
• Special thanks to Mr Tak Mashiko and Ms Katja Boettcher from UNODA and Mr Yuriy Kryvonos and his team from UNRCPD.
• Within RAND Europe, thanks are extended to Ms Sarah Grand-Clement, Mr Dan Jenkins, and Mr James Black for their support and feedback.