> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook Summary ## Core Content This quarterly air transport chartbook provides an overview of the global aviation industry's performance in Q4 2025, with a focus on economic conditions, fuel trends, and passenger and cargo traffic. It includes data and analysis from major economies and regions, highlighting growth, challenges, and policy developments. ## Main Points ### Global Economic Outlook - **Global GDP** is expected to grow by approximately $3.2\%$ in 2025 and likely remain around $3\%$ in 2026, indicating unusual stability. - The **World Uncertainty Index** suggests ongoing geopolitical and policy challenges, but the global business cycle remains resilient. - The **Federal Reserve** is expected to cut policy rates in June 2026, and **Jerome Powell** may not complete his term as Fed Chair. - **Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)** in the US was $2.5\%$ YoY in January 2026, still above the target of $2\%$. The **US non-farm payroll** showed a 3-month average of 73,000 monthly job creations, below the 100,000 threshold considered bullish. - **China's GDP** grew at $5.0\%$ in 2025, but slowed to $4.5\%$ YoY in Q4 2025. The country may reduce its growth target for 2026 to between $4.5\%$ and $5.0\%$. - **Japan** grew by $1.1\%$ in 2025, up from $0.1\%$ in 2024. The **Bank of Japan** raised its policy rate to $0.75\%$, a 30-year high. - **India** is expected to grow at $7.4\%$ in FY2025-2026, with the service sector growing at $9.9\%$ and manufacturing at $7.0\%$. - **Brazil** is experiencing economic slowdown, with GDP growth at $1.8\%$ in Q3 2025 and likely to drop to $1.6\%$ in 2026. ### Aviation Fuel Trends - **Crude oil prices** averaged USD 63.7 per barrel in Q4 2025, down $8\%$ from Q3 due to oversupply concerns. - **Jet fuel prices** remained stable, averaging USD 91.4 per barrel, with a **crack spread** widening by $30\%$ to USD 27.7. - **Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)** production reached 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, up from 1 million tonnes in 2024. It is projected to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026. - **SAF purchase agreements** totaled 39 in 2025, with 6 in Q4 2025, dominated by **HEFA-based SAF** (75%) and **e-SAF** (5%). - **Co-processed SAF** accounts for $10\%$ of agreements and is currently allowed up to $5\%$ in fossil fuel refineries under ASTM standards, though the UK has raised the limit to $30\%$. ### Passenger Traffic - **Global RPK** reached 2.4 trillion in Q4 2025, up $6.0\%$ YoY, with a **seasonally adjusted QoQ increase** of $2.5\%$. - **Asia Pacific** carriers contributed over $40\%$ of global RPK growth, with a $7.4\%$ YoY increase and a **PLF** of $84.7\%$. - **Middle Eastern airlines** saw the second-fastest growth at $9.9\%$ YoY, with a **PLF** of $81.8\%$. - **African airlines** had the fastest regional growth at $11.8\%$ YoY, with a **PLF** of $74.9\%$. - **North American carriers** recorded the weakest growth at $1.0\%$ YoY, with a **PLF** of $82.3\%$. - **International passenger traffic** grew by $8.0\%$ YoY, with **economy class** demand outpacing **premium class** growth ($8.1\%$ vs. $6.7\%$). - **Global scheduled seat capacity** is forecast to increase by $3.3\%$ YoY in Q1 2026, with the **Middle East** leading at $6.1\%$ and **North America** at $1.3\%$. ### Cargo Traffic - **Global air cargo demand** grew by $4.6\%$ YoY in Q4 2025, reaching 76.4 billion CTK, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth. - **Seasonally adjusted CTKs** increased by $4.5\%$ YoY, indicating sustained underlying momentum. - **International air cargo traffic** rose to 67 billion CTK, up $5.7\%$ YoY, with all regions contributing to this growth. - **Industry CTK** is projected to grow by $3.0\%$ YoY in the Asia Pacific region and $4.4\%$ YoY in Latin America and the Caribbean. - **Industry cargo load factor** increased seasonally adjusted to $74.9\%$ in Q4 2025, with **international cargo load factor** showing regional variations. ## Key Information - The **global business cycle** remains stable, with GDP growth expected to stay around $3\%$ for 2026. - **SAF production** is increasing, though **policy fragmentation** and **low returns** are hindering broader adoption. - **Passenger traffic** growth is uneven across regions, with the **Asia Pacific** and **Middle East** leading. - **Cargo traffic** is showing strong momentum, with **sustained YoY growth** and **positive quarterly gains**. - **Geopolitical factors** and **economic policies** continue to influence both passenger and cargo trends globally.