2025年第四季度航空运输报告_27页_552kb

报告摘要

Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook Summary

Core Content

This quarterly air transport chartbook provides an overview of the global aviation industry's performance in Q4 2025, with a focus on economic conditions, fuel trends, and passenger and cargo traffic. It includes data and analysis from major economies and regions, highlighting growth, challenges, and policy developments.

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

Global GDP is expected to grow by approximately $3.2%$ in 2025 and likely remain around $3%$ in 2026, indicating unusual stability.
The World Uncertainty Index suggests ongoing geopolitical and policy challenges, but the global business cycle remains resilient.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut policy rates in June 2026, and Jerome Powell may not complete his term as Fed Chair.
Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) in the US was $2.5%$ YoY in January 2026, still above the target of $2%$. The US non-farm payroll showed a 3-month average of 73,000 monthly job creations, below the 100,000 threshold considered bullish.
China's GDP grew at $5.0%$ in 2025, but slowed to $4.5%$ YoY in Q4 2025. The country may reduce its growth target for 2026 to between $4.5%$ and $5.0%$.
Japan grew by $1.1%$ in 2025, up from $0.1%$ in 2024. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to $0.75%$, a 30-year high.
India is expected to grow at $7.4%$ in FY2025-2026, with the service sector growing at $9.9%$ and manufacturing at $7.0%$.
Brazil is experiencing economic slowdown, with GDP growth at $1.8%$ in Q3 2025 and likely to drop to $1.6%$ in 2026.

Aviation Fuel Trends

Crude oil prices averaged USD 63.7 per barrel in Q4 2025, down $8%$ from Q3 due to oversupply concerns.
Jet fuel prices remained stable, averaging USD 91.4 per barrel, with a crack spread widening by $30%$ to USD 27.7.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production reached 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, up from 1 million tonnes in 2024. It is projected to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026.
SAF purchase agreements totaled 39 in 2025, with 6 in Q4 2025, dominated by HEFA-based SAF (75%) and e-SAF (5%).
Co-processed SAF accounts for $10%$ of agreements and is currently allowed up to $5%$ in fossil fuel refineries under ASTM standards, though the UK has raised the limit to $30%$.

Passenger Traffic

Global RPK reached 2.4 trillion in Q4 2025, up $6.0%$ YoY, with a seasonally adjusted QoQ increase of $2.5%$.
Asia Pacific carriers contributed over $40%$ of global RPK growth, with a $7.4%$ YoY increase and a PLF of $84.7%$.
Middle Eastern airlines saw the second-fastest growth at $9.9%$ YoY, with a PLF of $81.8%$.
African airlines had the fastest regional growth at $11.8%$ YoY, with a PLF of $74.9%$.
North American carriers recorded the weakest growth at $1.0%$ YoY, with a PLF of $82.3%$.
International passenger traffic grew by $8.0%$ YoY, with economy class demand outpacing premium class growth ($8.1%$ vs. $6.7%$).
Global scheduled seat capacity is forecast to increase by $3.3%$ YoY in Q1 2026, with the Middle East leading at $6.1%$ and North America at $1.3%$.

Cargo Traffic

Global air cargo demand grew by $4.6%$ YoY in Q4 2025, reaching 76.4 billion CTK, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth.
Seasonally adjusted CTKs increased by $4.5%$ YoY, indicating sustained underlying momentum.
International air cargo traffic rose to 67 billion CTK, up $5.7%$ YoY, with all regions contributing to this growth.
Industry CTK is projected to grow by $3.0%$ YoY in the Asia Pacific region and $4.4%$ YoY in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Industry cargo load factor increased seasonally adjusted to $74.9%$ in Q4 2025, with international cargo load factor showing regional variations.

Key Information

The global business cycle remains stable, with GDP growth expected to stay around $3%$ for 2026.
SAF production is increasing, though policy fragmentation and low returns are hindering broader adoption.
Passenger traffic growth is uneven across regions, with the Asia Pacific and Middle East leading.
Cargo traffic is showing strong momentum, with sustained YoY growth and positive quarterly gains.
Geopolitical factors and economic policies continue to influence both passenger and cargo trends globally.