20240425-IMF-At_the_Threshold_The_Increasing_Relevance_of_the_Middle-Income_Trap_39页_1mb

The IMF working paper investigates the existence of a middle-income trap (MIT) using Markov chains, mean passage times, and constant growth thresholds. The analysis finds that while capital-output ratios and human capital show upward mobility, there is limited upward mobility in relative Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which may hide behind convergence in other determinants. The mean passage times and transitions indicate slow convergence in relative TFP, contrasting with faster convergence in capital intensity and human capital. The research concludes that a distinct middle-income trap is not strongly evidenced, but the lack of convergence in relative TFP could become more apparent over time, increasing the relevance of the MIT. The findings suggest that factors like technological upgrading and human capital are crucial for escaping the trap.