2025-06-09-Jefferies-新阿姆斯特丹制药（NAMS）_关于两项更新的思考_竞争对手口服PCSK9_+_NAMS阿尔茨海默病数据_8页_123kb

Equity Research Summary: New Amsterdam Pharma (NAMS)

Overall Rating and Price Target

• Jefferies Equity Research recommends a "BUY" rating for New Amsterdam Pharma (NAMS) with a price target of $45.00, representing approximately +123% upside from the closing price of $20.14 on June 9, 2025. The market capitalization is $2.3 billion, and the stock has a 54.2% float with an average ADV of $14.39.

Key Updates and Highlights

• MRK Oral PCSK9 Data: Merck & Co Inc (MRK) reported positive Phase III results for its oral PCSK9 inhibitor, demonstrating statistically significant and clinically meaningful reductions in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. The primary endpoint showed LDL reductions, with the 24-week Phase III trial potentially yielding lower efficacy (around mid to low 50%) compared to prior Phase II data due to factors such as longer duration (6 months vs. 8 weeks) and compliance issues from a food effect requiring fasting conditions. This data could impact NAMS positively, but AZN's superior oral PCSK9 profile, with no food effect, may benefit more. MRK's ASCVD data is expected to be available soon and could be presented at future conferences.

• NAMS Alzheimer's Data: NAMS released positive results from the BROADWAY substudy, which examined the effect of its CETP inhibitor (obicetrapib) on Alzheimer's disease biomarkers, particularly p-tau217. The study demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in absolute change for p-tau217 in both the full intention-to-treat population (p<0.002) and ApoE4 carriers (p=0.0215). This data is viewed as a potential catalyst, overlooked by investors despite slow uptake of Alzheimer's treatments, and could enhance strategic interest for NAMS. NAMS had this substudy to highlight obicetrapib's benefits beyond cardiovascular outcomes.

Company Description and Valuation

• Company Overview: New Amsterdam Pharma is a SMID-cap biotechnology firm developing a novel CETP inhibitor pill for cardiovascular disease. It has strong Phase II data on LDL reduction and is advancing into multiple Phase III trials, including a large cardiovascular outcomes trial (CVOT).

• Valuation: Valuation is primarily based on a 50/50 blend of P/E and NPV methodologies, with a price target derived from discounted cash flow (DCF) and other metrics like EV/EBITDA and sector comparisons. It incorporates a 20% premium to the sector's 2026E P/E and a 10% discount to NPV sum-of-the-parts.

• Risks: Key risks include clinical trial outcomes, regulatory challenges, commercialization hurdles (e.g., adherence for oral PCSK9 candidates), competition, and regulatory or legal issues. NAMS faces competition from companies like AZN and MRK in PCSK9 space. Financial risks involve R&D costs, earnings quality, and potential generic threats.

Analyst Conclusions and Key Takeaways

• Jefferies analysts view MRK's PCSK9 data positively for NAMS but caution that AZN's competitorship may mitigate its impact. NAMS's Alz data is seen as a valuable add-on, though Alzheimer's drug development remains challenging given recent setbacks with other Alzheimer's therapies. The overall assessment supports a BUY rating due to NAMS's advancement in both cardiovascular and neurological indications, with a key issue being the step-down in placebo-adjusted LDL benefit from Phase II to Phase III. However, no specific investment recommendation changes are hinted for the immediate term.

Additional Analyst Notes

• Dennis Ding highlights that AZN's oral PCSK9 may gain greater market share at MRK's expense due to ease of use. The Alz substudy data is emphasized as a potential strategic asset against broader competition.