2023-12-20-未来能源研究所-获取关键矿物以实现车辆运输电动化的政策挑战_25页_11mb

Key Findings on Policy Challenges for Accessing Critical Minerals

• Critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, and graphite are essential for electric vehicle batteries but face significant supply risks. These risks stem from high geographic concentration, with extraction and processing largely dominated by a few countries, particularly China (e.g., China supplies about 60-75% of processed critical minerals). This concentration poses threats to affordability, reliability, and national security.

• Geographic distribution issues are highlighted:

  • Extraction is highly concentrated (e.g., cobalt, lithium, and graphite extraction dominated by a handful of countries).
  • Reserves are also concentrated in a small number of countries and fragile or conflict-affected regions, which are often outside the US.
  • US reserves and production are minimal, making domestic sourcing limited unless exploration or innovation increases reserves.

• US Policies and Their Limitations:

  • The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides tax incentives for EVs using domestically sourced or FTA-mined critical minerals, but it may not resolve supply constraints given current international dependencies and price volatility.
  • International partnerships like the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) aim to diversify supplies but face challenges in enforcing ESG standards and competing with China's low-cost processing.
  • Domestic policies, including permitting reforms, address delays in mine development (e.g., lengthy approval processes), but reforms lack comprehensive data and stakeholder engagement strategies.

• Policy Recommendations and Conclusions:

  • Prioritize global diversification of critical mineral supplies over increasing US production, due to limited US reserves and the time lag for new mine development (often decadal).
  • Strengthen international cooperation to promote sustainable mining practices and reduce geopolitical risks.
  • Address knowledge gaps, such as improving data on federal land reserves and FDI in the sector.
  • Explore investment incentives for new processing facilities to counter China's dominance, despite economic uncertainties.

This report underscores that ensuring reliable critical mineral supplies for electrification requires a multi-pronged approach, combining domestic efforts with international collaboration and policy innovations.