20231212-金石期货-资讯速递_3页_256kb

Commodity and Market Summary Report

Futures Market Insights

• Top Gainers: Leanhao 2403 +277%, Anthracite 2405 +254%, Urea 2405 +227%.
• Top Losers: Lithium 2407 -859%, Glass 2405 -183%, LPG 2401 -140% on 2023 Dec 12 data.

Agricultural Sector

• China Cotton Weekly Update (as of 2023 Dec 7): Cotton planting average, 99.9% adoption, sales rate 91% year-over-year decrease, processing rate 73.9% increase. But inventory compared to past years and national estimates show reduced sales volume, increased processed cotton.

Industrial Metals

• Lithium Production: November 2023 output at 365 kt, up 6.5% month-on-month due to factory recoveries and production adjustments. Most stable from Qinghai region.
• Silicon Iron Market: Prices held steady but pressured, with no new contracts and dropping demand; inventory loss.
• LME Prices: Contango on metals, declining discounts: copper -919$, aluminum -$47, zinc -$1075, tin -$224, nickel -$2175 per ton at close.

Energy and Mining

• Coal Explained: Port inventory 69,163 kt, down 1.1% despite cold weather. Demand remains刚需 (mandatory demand).
• Recycled Lead: One plant in Shanxi to resume operations by mid-December, producing 11,000 mt/year.
• Oil News: U.S. Permian basin productions bump by 5-15%, and stock buy-in; West Texas five drill spacing retained.

Economic and Automotive Data

• China Auto Sales (Dec 2023): Domestic sales up 243% year-over-year at 2.488 million vehicles. Exports fell to 482,000 vehicles, down 11% month-over-month but +463% year-over-year. High car market declaration.
• Federal Reserve Probabilities: Fed likely keep 5.25%-5.50% interest rate at 98.4%, small chance for changes.

Inflation and Federal Reserve

• U.S. Inflation Expectation: One-year estimate down to 3.4% since April 2021, three-year steady at 3%.
• Fed Projection: By February 2024, 94.4% change no interest rates, drop likely 25%.