2012年-ECB欧洲央行_Recent_economic_and_financial_developments_in_EU_candidate_countries_18页_511kb

Summary of Recent Economic and Financial Developments in EU Candidate Countries

Core Content

This article examines the economic and financial developments in EU candidate countries and highlights the challenges they face on the path to EU membership. It emphasizes the importance of sustainable convergence and the role of monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in this process. The analysis is structured around the economic and institutional diversity of candidate countries, their performance before and after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, and the current monetary policy frameworks in place.

Main Points

1. EU Accession Process and Candidate Status

• Croatia is set to join the EU in July 2013, marking the seventh enlargement in the EU's history.
• Five countries (Iceland, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey) have official candidate status.
• Three western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo) are potential candidates.
• The ECB and Eurosystem central banks are actively involved in the accession process, offering technical support and monitoring economic developments.

2. Economic and Institutional Heterogeneity

• Candidate countries vary significantly in terms of economic structure, GDP per capita, and institutional maturity.
• Most candidate countries have service-oriented economies, with over 60% of GDP derived from the services sector.
• Agriculture remains more prominent in candidate countries compared to the EU10.
• Trade with the EU accounts for around two-thirds of their total exports and imports.
• Iceland has the highest GDP per capita among candidate countries, while the western Balkans lag behind in terms of institutional development and economic performance.

3. Economic and Financial Developments Before the Crisis

• Candidate countries experienced robust GDP growth between 2003 and 2008, with average annual increases ranging from 4.3% (Croatia) to 6.2% (Montenegro).
• Rapid financial expansion occurred, with significant increases in domestic credit as a percentage of GDP.
• External and domestic imbalances grew, leading to large current account deficits (ranging from 10% to over 50% of GDP in some countries).
• Inflation in some countries (Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey) was not aligned with local price stability targets.

4. Impact of the Crisis and Its Aftermath

• The global financial crisis led to a severe economic contraction in candidate countries, with real GDP falling by between 3.5% (Serbia) and 6.8% (Iceland) in 2009.
• Countries with high financial exposure, such as Montenegro and Iceland, were particularly affected.
• The drying-up of external finance exposed long-standing vulnerabilities, including reliance on foreign capital.
• Following the crisis, current account deficits narrowed in Croatia and Iceland, while Turkey saw a significant increase in its current account deficit.
• Fiscal positions deteriorated sharply in 2009, with public deficits and debt rising, and have since improved only modestly.

5. Monetary Policy Frameworks and Exchange Rate Regimes

• Candidate countries employ a range of monetary and exchange rate policies, from unilateral euroisation in Montenegro to inflation-targeting with a freely floating exchange rate in Serbia.
• Iceland and Turkey use inflation-targeting regimes, with Iceland also incorporating exchange rate stability as an interim target.
• Potential candidate countries also exhibit diverse frameworks, including a currency board in Bosnia and Herzegovina and unilateral euroisation in Kosovo.
• The ECB and Eurosystem NCBs provide technical assistance and support to candidate and potential candidate countries, including bilateral and regional programs.

Key Information

• Growth Before Crisis: Candidate countries saw strong GDP growth before the 2008-09 crisis, but this was often accompanied by financial and economic imbalances.
• Crisis Impact: The crisis caused significant economic contractions, especially in countries with high external financial exposure.
• Fiscal Challenges: Fiscal positions worsened during the crisis, and while some recovery occurred, fiscal fragility remains.
• Monetary Policies: Diverse monetary policy frameworks exist, reflecting varying degrees of economic integration and institutional development.
• EU Membership as a Goal: EU membership and the adoption of the euro are seen as means to achieve long-term convergence, stability, and prosperity, rather than ends in themselves.

Conclusion

The article underscores that while candidate countries have made progress in their economic and financial development, many still face significant challenges, particularly in terms of fiscal and monetary stability. Sustainable convergence and the eventual adoption of the euro require continued policy efforts, and the ECB plays a key role in supporting this process through monitoring, dialogue, and technical assistance.