20230726-东方证券-扩大内需周观察_部分商场周末客流表现较弱_4页

Macro|
Dynamical Tracking Summary

1. City Subway & Congestion Index:

   |_ Cities |

   • Subway Traffic: 10 sample cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Wuhan, Nanjing, Xi'an, Chongqing, Suzhou) recorded an average of 60,939 trips per day in the past week, representing a 364% YoY growth. Among them, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Chengdu had the highest YoY growth rates.
   • Week-over-Week Change: Subway traffic declined by 1% week-over-week, while the six-city average congestion index increased by 45% YoY but dropped by 13% week-over-week.

2. Production & Transportation Index:

   |_ Highlights |

   • High-utilization Rates:
     • High-Furnace Rate: 57.3%
     • Long-Process Refinery Rate: 64.7%
     • PTA Rate: 78.3%
     • Halftread Tyre Output Rate: 71.0%
   • Half-turn Highlights:
     • Rise: Halfsteel tyre and long-process refinery rates increased.
     • Decline: PTA and cement transport rates remain on decline.
   • Traffic Indicators:
     • Railway cargo and domestic flight schedules maintained weekly increases.
     • Express delivery and highway freight volumes recorded weekly changes turning positive/negative.

3. Shopping & Consumer Spending (distinctive data derived from Baidu Maps):

   |_ Observations |

   • Short-term Mall Traffic Variations:
     • Weekday Data:
       • Beijing (Huijiu Cent.) & Century Source Mall: 96%-94% YoW Wed./Thu. traffic drop.
       • Beijing Global Mall, Shanghai Century Place Mall: Stable YOW traffic (97%-96%-104%).
     • Weekend Traffic Decline:
       • Chongqing Three Gorges Complex, Dlong. Times Tianjie: 90%-90% (tourist vs. non-tourist) YWK drop.
       • Xi’an Shenglong & Segē Malls: Exceeded pre-pandemic workday levels but slight week-over-week cooling over weekends.
       • Shenyang Lóngzhàoméng Mall: 107% Y OWK during weekdays, declined to 92% peak weekend.

4. Cinema Box Office Data (National & Key Cities):

   |_ Summary |

   • National Average: RMB 2.75B average weekly, exceeding 2019 levels by 70.6% (+39% week-over-week).
   • City-wise:
     • Shanghai & Beijing: Strong YoW growth at 140% and 129%, respectively.
     • Guangzhou & Shenzhen: 39% YoW growth, now stable at 7%-38%.
   • Industry Note: Content not explicitly discussed, only traffic and key city trends presented.

5. Hiring & Employment Market:

   |_ Highlights |

   • City-wise Recruiting:
     • New initial companies & postings: 25%/32% YoW growth in Tier-2 cities (excluding Beijing, Shanghai, HK, Shenzhen). Shanghai & Shenzhen experienced contraction (-2% YoW).
     • Strong support in cities like Nanjing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, etc.
   • Sector-specific Growth:
     • Leading Sectors ("Food, Metal", highlighted as accelerating): On average ~138.9% two-week growth rate.
     • Turnarounds:
       -钢铁，建材，纺织：改善显著，从负转正📈（钢铁+365%，建材+199%，纺织+179%）。
     • Declining Sectors: Leisure services (-82%) & Communication (-13%) are showing the sharpest negative YoW growth.