2006年-世界发展银行全球_Price_Effects_of_Preferential_Market_Access___Caribbean_Basin_Initiative_and_the_Apparel_Sector_19页_171kb

Summary of "Price Effects of Preferential Market Access: Caribbean Basin Initiative and the Apparel Sector"

Core Content

This article examines the impact of the U.S. Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) on the prices received by apparel exporters from the Caribbean and Central America. It emphasizes that preferential trade arrangements should be evaluated based on price effects rather than just the volume of trade. The CBI provides duty- and quota-free access to the U.S. market for 24 eligible countries, making it one of the most significant and heavily used unilateral preferences, particularly in the apparel sector.

Main Viewpoints

• Preferential Market Access and Price Effects: The study argues that preferential trade arrangements, like the CBI, should be assessed by their impact on export prices rather than just trade volume. The CBI's apparel preferences are especially valuable due to high trade barriers on non-preferred exports.

• CBI's Impact on Prices: CBI exporters capture about two-thirds of the preference margin, leading to a 9% increase in the relative prices they receive compared to non-preferred exporters. This is an upper bound, as some benefits are lost due to compliance costs and other market factors.

• Variation in Price Effects: The price effects vary across countries and over time. Countries specializing in higher-value apparel items capture a larger share of the preference margin. The implementation of NAFTA negatively affects the share of the preference margin captured by CBI countries.

• Rules of Origin and Compliance Costs: The rules of origin under CBI, which require the use of U.S. or domestic inputs, create administrative and production costs. These costs reduce the net benefits of the preferences. Anson et al. (2005) and Cadot et al. (2005) show that a significant portion of the price increase is due to these compliance costs.

• Multifibre Arrangement Quotas: The removal of Multifibre Arrangement (MFA) quotas on third countries like China and India has significantly reduced the benefits of CBI preferences, as it increased competition and eroded the price advantage of CBI exporters.

Key Findings

• Price Trends: The average price of U.S. apparel imports declined from $83 in 1991 to $52 in 2002, while CBI apparel exports remained consistently below this average, but the gap narrowed over time, reaching 90% in 1993 and 92% in 2002.

• Tariff Reductions: The preferential tariff margin for CBI countries dropped from 20.7% in 1989 to 5% in 2002, representing an average preference margin of about 13% in 2002.

• Estimation Methodology: A fixed-effects generalized least squares (GLS) approach is used to estimate the price effects of CBI preferences, controlling for quality, exchange rates, and transaction costs. The model uses country-, product-, and year-fixed effects to isolate the effects of preferential access.

• Pass-Through Effects: The study finds that the traditional tariff pass-through rate is about 75%, meaning that only 25% of the tariff reduction is passed on to exporters. The rest is captured by importers, highlighting the importance of market power in determining the distribution of preference rents.

Policy Implications

• Short-Term Benefits: While CBI preferences provide significant short-term benefits, especially in the apparel sector, they do not deliver the full potential gains due to compliance costs and the erosion of preference margins with the removal of MFA quotas and the implementation of NAFTA.

• Need for Transition: Recipient countries should not rely on preferential access for long-term benefits. Instead, they should aim to transition to a system where trade is determined by comparative advantage, such as by moving to higher-value products and leveraging geographic proximity to the U.S. market.

• Market Integration: CBI exporters can benefit from higher prices by integrating more closely with U.S. supply chains, particularly through just-in-time inventory systems, which require tighter production coordination.

Data and Methodology

• Data Source: The study uses detailed customs data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) for the period 1989–2002, classified at the eight-digit level of the Harmonized System.

• Sample Countries: The analysis focuses on the eight largest apparel exporters under the CBI: Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, and Nicaragua.

• Estimation Technique: A two-step feasible GLS estimation is used to correct for heteroskedasticity in the data. This approach allows for more accurate and efficient estimation of the price effects of preferential access.

Conclusion

The study concludes that while preferential trade arrangements like the CBI have had a measurable impact on export prices, the benefits are not fully captured by the exporters due to compliance costs and other market factors. The removal of MFA quotas and the implementation of NAFTA have further reduced the value of these preferences, indicating that long-term reliance on such arrangements may not be sustainable. The findings suggest that developing countries should aim for deeper integration into global supply chains and focus on improving product quality and competitiveness to fully benefit from preferential access.