2025-06-02-Jefferies-专家邀请_了解轮胎的定价和分销杠杆_8页_217kb

Equity Research Report Summary

Date: June 2, 2025
Topic: Continental AG, Michelin, Pirelli

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Overview

• Event: An expert call invites Michael Caroglanian to discuss pricing and distribution levers in Tier 1 tyres.
• Ratings:
  • Continental AG (CON GR): HOLD • Target €80
  • Michelin (ML FP): BUY • Target €43
  • Pirelli (PIRC IM): BUY • Target €7.4

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Company Evaluations

Continental AG (CON GR)

• Rating: HOLD with €80 price target (current price €77.30).
• Metrics:
  • Market cap: €15.5B ($17.6B).
  • 2022 revenue: €39B.
  • Risks: Legacy portfolio, declining tire margins, value-destroying M&A.
  • Valuation: 7.9x EV/EBIT for RemainCo, 6.9x for LeaveCo.

Michelin (ML FP)

• Rating: BUY with €43 price target (current price €33.68).
• Metrics:
  • Market cap: €23.8B ($27.0B).
  • 2022 revenue: €28.6B from passenger and truck tires.
  • EV/EBIT 9x covers 2026E EV/EBIT projections.
  • Risks: Input cost inflation, competitive pricing, M&A risks.

Pirelli (PIRC IM)

• Rating: BUY with €7.4 price target (current price €6.30).
• Metrics:
  • Market cap: €6.3B ($7.2B).
  • 2023 revenue: €6.6B with 15.1% EBIT margin.
  • EV/EBIT 9x (2025E).
  • Risks: Input cost inflation, growth dependency on >18-inch tires, and competitive net pricing.

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Key Insights

• Pricing Power: Tyre manufacturers leverage pricing to offset volume losses, reflecting strong OE brand positioning.
• Distribution: Shifts in pricing and channel strategies impact retail and consumer preferences.
• Risks: Improved EV/EBIT multiples come with legacy portfolio constraints and input cost volatility.
• Growth: Pirelli and Michelin face growth dependency on premium segments and competitive challenges.

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Call Discussion Topics

• OE influence on product and pricing in retail channels.
• SKU management, product launches, and pricing frequency.
• Consumer loyalty drivers, especially first replacement cycles.
• Distribution model impacts on pricing and retail strategies.

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Analyst Credentials

• Michael Aspinall, Philippe Houchois, and Owen Paterson certify their views align with their personal analysis and compensation is independent of recommendations.

Disclaimer: Jefferies' ratings and price targets are based on multiple analyses, including DCF, EV/EBIT, and growth projections. Rankings and risks reflect company-specific contexts.