2025年全球食品展望报告半年刊（谷物_油籽与油脂_糖_肉类_乳制品_鱼类）（英文）_151页_15mb

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Food Outlook is a biannual report published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), providing an in-depth analysis of global food markets. The June 2025 edition outlines the current and projected state of various food commodities, highlighting the interplay between production, utilization, trade, and prices, while also addressing broader economic and geopolitical factors affecting the sector.

Main Commodity Outlooks

Wheat

• Production: Expected to increase slightly in 2025/26, but not enough to offset rising utilization.
• Utilization: Growth in utilization will outpace production, leading to a drawdown of global wheat stocks.
• Trade: Global wheat trade is forecast to partially recover from the previous season's decline, driven by increased import demand in Asia.
• Prices: Prices are expected to be influenced by supply-demand dynamics and trade policies.

Coarse Grains

• Production: A rebound in production is expected in 2025/26, following a tight season in 2024/25.
• Prices: Coarse grain prices, particularly maize, are starting the 2025/26 season above average levels.
• Trade: Global coarse grain trade is anticipated to increase, with a partial recovery in stock levels.

Rice

• Production: World rice production is forecast to reach a new peak in 2025/26, provided favorable growing conditions.
• Utilization and Stocks: Continued growth in utilization and stocks is expected, supported by abundant harvests.
• Trade: International trade is expected to expand, despite declines in imports by Asian countries.

Oilcrops

• Production: Record soybean production in 2024/25 is expected to lead to increased stock accumulation of oilmeals.
• Oils/Fats: Output of oils/fats may remain tight due to subdued growth in palm, rapeseed, and sunflower oil.
• Trade: Oilmeal supplies are likely to continue rising, while oils/fats output may grow at a slower pace.

Sugar

• Production: Sugar production in 2024/25 is expected to decline due to lower outputs in major producing countries.
• Consumption: Global consumption is anticipated to rise only modestly, leading to a potential supply deficit.
• Trade: Global sugar trade is predicted to contract due to reduced export availabilities from key exporting countries.

Meat

• Production: Global meat production is forecast to increase modestly in 2025, with poultry meat leading the growth.
• Trade: Meat trade is expected to expand due to strong import demand.
• Prices: Tightening global supplies and robust import demand could lead to further price increases.

Dairy

• Production: World milk production is expected to continue expanding, albeit at a slower pace.
• Trade: Trade outlook is constrained by lower-than-expected demand recovery and rising prices.

Fisheries

• Production: Output from fisheries and aquaculture is projected to increase by 1.5% in 2025.
• Challenges: Higher tariffs, retaliatory measures, and exchange rate volatility are complicating market access and increasing operational costs.

Special Features

• High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI): A special article discusses its economic impacts and trade implications.
• Trade Flows: Changes in trade flows since the war in Ukraine are analyzed.
• Fertilizer Markets: An update on fertilizer markets, including the impact of reduced availability from Russia.
• Fish Fraud: Economic drivers behind fish fraud are explored.
• Decarbonization: The implications of decarbonizing the international maritime sector on net food-importing developing countries (NFIDCs) are discussed.

Market Indicators

• Futures Markets: Overview of recent developments in futures prices and volumes.
• Ocean Freight Rates: Analysis of freight rate trends.
• Food Import Bill: Summary of changes in the global food import bill by food group.
• Food Price Indices: Trends in the FAO Food Price Indices, including cereal, meat, and dairy indices.

Legal and Usage Notes

• The report is released under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence (CC BY 4.0), allowing copying, redistribution, and adaptation with proper citation.
• Users must include a disclaimer if they create translations or adaptations.
• The use of the FAO logo is not permitted.
• Third-party materials (such as images, tables, and figures) are not subject to the CC BY 4.0 licence, and users must seek permission for reuse.

Publication Information

• ISSN: 0251-1959 (Print), 1560-8182 (Online)
• ISBN: 978-92-5-139879-1
• Publisher: FAO, 2025
• Frequency: Published twice a year, in June and November.
• June Report: Contains detailed market analysis.
• November Report: Provides summary market assessments.

Structure

• Acknowledgements: XI
• 1. Markets at a Glance: 1–9
• 2. Market Assessments: 10–51
• 3. Special Features: 52–85
• 4. Market Indicators: 86–99
• 5. Statistical Appendix: 100–137 (Tables)

Key Information

• The global food market outlook is relatively optimistic, with most commodities expected to see increased production, except for sugar.
• The outlook is influenced by weather conditions, geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and economic uncertainties.
• FAO provides a comprehensive overview of market trends, including price indices, production data, and trade statistics.
• The report includes figures and tables for detailed analysis, as well as special features addressing specific challenges and trends in the food sector.

Risks and Uncertainties

• Economic instability and geopolitical tensions could negatively impact trade and prices.
• Exchange rate fluctuations and rising production costs are complicating the global food trade landscape.
• Supply-demand imbalances may affect stock recovery and price trends across different commodities.

Conclusion

The Food Outlook offers a detailed and structured analysis of global food markets, emphasizing the importance of production, trade, and price dynamics in shaping the future of food security. It also highlights the economic and geopolitical challenges that may influence market stability and food accessibility, particularly for net food-importing developing countries.