BloombergNEF-加速电气化与可再生电力可助中国迈向碳中和目标（英文）-2020.11-27页_1mb

Summary of "China's Accelerated Decarbonization"

Core Content

This white paper explores China's potential pathways to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, analyzing two scenarios: the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) and the Accelerated Transition Scenario (ATS). It emphasizes the role of accelerated electrification and renewable energy deployment in reducing emissions and aligning with economic and climate goals.

Main Points

• China's Carbon Neutrality Goal:

  • China pledged to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
  • It is the world's largest carbon emitter, responsible for 28% of global emissions in 2018.
  • The country's path to carbon neutrality is challenging due to rising energy demand and emissions, but it has the potential to lead in renewable energy and clean technology manufacturing.

• Economic Goals:

  • China aims to become a "moderately developed economy" by 2035 and a "modern strong nation" by 2050.
  • GDP per capita is expected to double by 2035 and triple by 2050.
  • Economic growth will slow post-2035, with a focus on high-value manufacturing and services.

• Power Sector Decarbonization:

  • Around 90% of China's emissions come from electricity and heat production, industry, and transport.
  • The ETS predicts peak emissions in 2026, while the ATS accelerates this to 2024, with faster annual reductions (150 million tons vs. 133 million tons of CO2e).
  • In the ATS, electricity will account for 53% of final energy consumption by 2050, up from 43% in the ETS.

Key Scenarios and Results

• Power Demand:

  • In the ETS, power demand rises to 11,287TWh by 2044 and declines to 10,788TWh by 2050.
  • In the ATS, power demand is 36% higher, reaching 14,855TWh by 2050.
  • Electricity demand in the ATS does not peak before 2050.

• Power Supply:

  • Wind and solar account for 58% and 74% of total capacity in the ETS and ATS, respectively, by 2050.
  • In the ATS, zero-carbon sources dominate, with over 90% of electricity supply from renewables.
  • Natural gas and coal remain significant, but gas's role is expected to shrink, while hydrogen-fueled turbines will provide balancing power.

• Investment Requirements:

  • The ATS requires $7.9 trillion in investment for electricity generation over the next 30 years, double that of the ETS.
  • The focus is on solar and wind, with hydrogen-fueled turbines playing a critical role in balancing the grid.

Key Drivers for Decarbonization

• Renewables and Electrification:

  • Market dynamics and policy reforms are essential to increase renewable penetration.
  • Direct electrification of transport, buildings, and industry is a major enabler of the ATS.
  • EVs are expected to make up 77% of private cars, 78% of buses, and 100% of two-wheelers under the ETS by 2050.

• Industry Decarbonization:

  • Industry accounts for 64% of China's final energy demand.
  • Steel and aluminum production are expected to reach over 50% recycling rates under the ATS.
  • Energy efficiency improvements and material recycling have already contributed to emission reductions.

• Hydrogen:

  • Hydrogen-fueled gas turbines will play a key role in balancing the grid under the ATS.
  • China has set ambitious targets for hydrogen deployment, especially for heavy-duty transport.

• Challenges and Opportunities:

  • Reducing emissions from dispatchable generation remains difficult.
  • Policy uncertainty and unclear revenue structures are major obstacles for private investment in renewables.
  • China has the opportunity to lead in hydrogen technology and clean energy manufacturing, similar to its success with solar and EVs.

Opportunities

• Emission Reduction:

  • The ATS scenario leads to significant power sector emissions reductions, with 603 MtCO2 cut by 2050 compared to the ETS.

• Electricity:

  • Wind and solar will dominate the power mix, with offshore wind installations expected to grow 13 times by 2050.
  • Electricity demand will continue to rise under the ATS, driven by industrial and transport electrification.

• Electric Vehicles and Charging Infrastructure:

  • EVs are expected to make up 17% of total power demand in 2050 under the ATS.
  • China needs to expand its public and commercial vehicle charging infrastructure significantly to support this growth.

• Hydrogen:

  • Hydrogen will play a critical role in balancing the grid and supporting heavy transport.
  • Deployment targets for hydrogen-fueled turbines are aligned with the ATS, which envisions a major shift toward hydrogen-based energy solutions.

Conclusion

The ATS scenario presents a more ambitious and faster path to decarbonization than the ETS, requiring significant investment in renewables, electrification, and hydrogen technology. China's domestic market and policy-driven growth in solar, EVs, and batteries provide a strong foundation for this transition. However, challenges such as policy uncertainty, revenue predictability, and the need for market reforms remain critical to achieving the accelerated decarbonization goals.