> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Leapmotor (9863 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Key Highlights Leapmotor is projected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with the analyst maintaining a **BUY** rating and a **target price of HK\$60.00**. The company is expected to deliver robust performance in FY26E and beyond, driven by its sales momentum and strategic partnerships, particularly with Stellantis and FAW. ### 1Q26 Earnings Performance - **Revenue** increased by **8% YoY** and **1% above forecast**, reaching **RMB10,820 million**. - **Gross margin (GPM)** fell to **9.4%**, **5.7 ppts lower than the previous quarter** and **2.4 ppts below forecast**, primarily due to lower other income and diseconomies of scale. - **SG&A and R&D expenses** were higher than expected, but offset by greater government grants. - **Net loss** was **RMB390 million**, **RMB23 million better than forecast**, indicating improved performance compared to initial expectations. ### 2Q26 Outlook - **Sales volume** is projected to be **0.24–0.25mn units**, with **GPM of 12–13%**. - This guidance is viewed as **positive**, and the company is expected to post an **all-time high net profit** in 2Q26E. - This gives more confidence in its **FY26E profitability**. ### FY26E Sales and Profit Forecast - **Total sales volume** is revised up by **8%** to **0.97mn units**, driven by **strong overseas sales**. - **Net profit** is forecasted at **RMB3.5 billion**, **3% lower than the previous estimate**, due to higher overseas sales. - **FY27E net profit** is revised up by **10%** to **RMB5.0 billion**, reflecting improved profitability expectations. ### Overseas Sales and Profit Contribution - **Leapmotor International JV** is expected to contribute **RMB871 million in FY27E** with **0.28mn units sold**. - **GPM for vehicles sold to the JV** is projected to increase from FY28E onwards, according to the **agreement with Stellantis**. - **Revenue from other automakers** may be **underestimated**, as Leapmotor has been **sacrificing profits** in overseas markets to build strategic partnerships. ### Valuation and Key Risks - **P/E ratio** for FY26E is **16.0**, while for FY27E and FY28E it is **11.3** and **7.5**, respectively. - **Key risks** include **lower sales or GPM than expected** and **sector de-rating**. ## Financial Overview ### Revenue Projections (RMB mn) | Year | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |-------------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue | 32,164 | 64,732 | 103,556 | 115,442 | 139,654 | | YoY Growth | 92.1% | 101.3% | 60.0% | 11.5% | 21.0% | ### Net Profit Projections (RMB mn) | Year | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |-------------|------|------|------|------|------| | Net Profit | 538.4 | 3,484.0 | 4,990.2 | 7,560.0 | ### Gross Margin (Gross Profit Margin) | Year | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |-------------|------|------|------|------|------| | Gross Margin | 14.5% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 14.0% | ### Operating Margin | Year | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |-------------|------|------|------|------|------| | Operating Margin | 0.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | ### Net Margin | Year | FY24A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |-------------|------|------|------|------| | Net Margin | 1.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | ## Shareholding and Financial Metrics ### Shareholding Structure | Shareholder | Percentage | |-------------------------|------------| | Mr. Jiangming Zhu and his concert party | 23.9% | | Stellantis N.V. | 20.0% | ### Stock Data | Metric | Value (HK$) | |------------------------|------------| | Market Cap | 64,294.4 million | | Avg 3 mths t/o | 507.7 million | | 52w High/Low | 73.50 / 38.26 | | Total Issued Shares | 1,421.8 million | ### Share Performance | Period | Absolute | Relative | |--------------|----------|----------| | 1-mth | -16.9% | -16.9% | | 3-mth | -0.1% | 2.7% | | 6-mth | -18.5% | -16.6% | ## Analyst Ratings and Outlook - **CMBIGM Rating**: **BUY** - **Target Price**: **HK\$60.00** - **Up/Downside**: **32.7%** - **Current Price**: **HK\$45.22** ## Key Financial Ratios | Ratio | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |--------------------|------|------|------| | P/E | 16.0 | 11.3 | 7.5 | | P/B | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | | P/CFPS | 2.3 | 4.4 | 2.7 | ## Summary of Key Points - Leapmotor is expected to maintain strong growth, with a **BUY** rating and **target price of HK\$60.00**. - **1Q26 earnings** were largely in line with expectations, with **net profit** better than forecast. - **2Q26 guidance** is **positive**, with **higher net profit** anticipated. - **Overseas sales** are expected to contribute meaningfully to **profit from FY27E**, despite lower GPM in FY26E. - **Strategic partnerships** with Stellantis and FAW are seen as key to long-term growth. - **Valuation** is based on **FY26E P/E**, with **key risks** including **lower-than-expected sales/GPM** and **sector de-rating**. ## Financial Highlights - **Revenue** is expected to grow significantly, with **60% YoY growth in FY26E**. - **Gross profit** is projected to increase, with **GPM improving** from FY26E to FY28E. - **Net profit** is expected to grow from **RMB3.5 billion in FY26E** to **RMB7.56 billion in FY28E**. - **Operating profit** is expected to increase from **RMB2.7 billion in FY26E** to **RMB6.02 billion in FY28E**. ## Analyst Contact - **Wenjing DOU, CFA**: (852) 6939 4751 | douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk - **Ji SHI, CFA**: (852) 3761 8728 | shiji@cmbi.com.hk - **Austin Liang**: (852) 3900 0856 | austinliang@cmbi.com.hk