20260514-招银国际-腾讯控股-00700.HK-Resilient_1Q26_earnings_growth_despite_AI_investment_solid_AI_progress_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Tencent (700 HK) Summary

Core Content

Tencent reported its 1Q26 earnings, showing resilient growth despite increased AI investment. The company maintained a strong performance across its core businesses and demonstrated solid progress in AI. The financial metrics and forecasts suggest continued growth and stability in key areas.

Main Points

Earnings Performance

Total Revenue: Grew by 9% YoY to RMB196.5 billion, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate.
Non-IFRS Operating Income: Increased by 9% YoY to RMB75.6 billion, in line with expectations.
Non-IFRS Operating Profit Excluding AI Investment: Rose by 17% YoY to RMB84.4 billion, indicating strong operating leverage.
Earnings Impact from AI Investment: c.RMB9 billion in 1Q26, consistent with management's guidance of over RMB36 billion for FY26E.
Earnings Forecasts (FY26E–FY28E): Remain largely unchanged, with a target price of HK$750.0.

Core Business Growth

Games Revenue: Grew by 8% YoY to RMB64.2 billion, with domestic games up 6% and international games up 13%. The growth decelerated due to the later Spring Festival timing.
Marketing Services Revenue: Increased by 20% YoY to RMB38.2 billion, driven by AI improvements in ad performance and pricing. AIM+ already powers c.30% of total marketing spending.
Fintech and Business Services Revenue: Grew by 9% YoY to RMB59.9 billion, with business services up 20% YoY, supported by cloud and e-commerce growth. Commercial payment volume also increased.

AI Progress

LLM & Agentic AI: Tencent made solid progress in the development of HY3 Preview and WorkBuddy.
HY3 Preview: Ranked top in token usage on OpenRouter (23 Apr–12 May), showing comprehensive intelligence and strong cost efficiency.
WorkBuddy: Achieved solid user growth with over 80% retention rate among paying users and is now the most popular productivity AI agent service in China by DAU.
Future Focus: The LLM team will build larger parameter models using a bigger and more quality dataset, enhancing the HY model's competitiveness and expanding use cases.

Margins and Valuation

Non-IFRS OPM: Flattish YoY at 38.5%, but excluded AI investment, it expanded by c.3ppt to 43.0%.
Valuation: The SOTP-derived target price of HK$750.0 is based on core business valuations and strategic investments.
Current Valuation: 15x FY26E non-IFRS PE, which the firm considers attractive in terms of risk-reward.

Key Information

Financial Highlights

Revenue (FY26E): RMB823.8 billion
Adjusted Net Profit (FY26E): RMB276.5 billion
EPS (Adjusted): RMB30.4
Consensus EPS (FY26E): RMB30.4
P/E (FY26E): 15x

Shareholding and Stock Data

Market Cap: HK$4,147,430.1 million
Average 3-Month Turnover: HK$13,422.3 million
52-Week High/Low: HK$677.50 / HK$457.20
Total Issued Shares: 8,965.5 million

Shareholding Structure

MIH TC: 22.8%
Advance Data Services Limited: 7.8%

Share Performance

1-Month: -5.6% (Absolute), -8.2% (Relative)
3-Month: -13.0% (Absolute), -12.0% (Relative)
6-Month: -29.5% (Absolute), -27.7% (Relative)

Valuation Breakdown (HK$)

Games Business: HK$349.5 (based on 24x 2026E PE)
SNS Business: HK$31.3 (based on 3.5x 2026E PS for Tencent Video and other services)
Marketing Services Business: HK$150.1 (based on 22x 2026E PE)
Fintech Business: HK$105.7 (based on 4.5x 2026E PS)
Cloud Business: HK$33.4 (based on 4.5x 2026E PS, at a discount to the industry average)
Strategic Investments: HK$71.1 (based on current market value and book value, with a 30% discount applied)
Net Cash: HK$8.7

Valuation Per Share (HK$)

Core Business: HK$678.7
Strategic Investments: HK$71.1
Total Valuation: HK$750.0

Conclusion

Tencent's 1Q26 results show resilient earnings growth, with strong performance in core businesses like games, marketing services, and fintech. The company is making significant progress in AI with products like HY3 and WorkBuddy, and its operating leverage remains robust despite increased AI investment. The current valuation is seen as attractive, and the firm reiterates its BUY recommendation.

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