> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Global Luxury Goods # Global Luxury Goods: The Handbag Price & Mix Barometer - Tracking 2H25's changes and setting a baseline for 2026 Luca Solca +41582723126 luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Maria Meita +442071700540 maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA +442076766822 yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Eric Chen, CFA +852 2123 2628 eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com # Specialist Sales Alix Turner +442077624044 alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com New collections designed by new creative directors at Gucci and Dior are set to debut in 1Q26. This will provide an opportunity for soft luxury brands to re-adjust their product mix. To set a baseline for 2026 and to help assess these anticipated changes, we take a snapshot of each brand's product architecture at the end of 2025. Product price/mix adjustments in 2026 could help address soft luxury's challenges. A number of converging factors coalesced to wrong foot soft luxury mega-brands like Gucci, Dior, and Chanel in 2025 (see The Long View: Global Luxury Goods - The mega-brand paradigm crisis). To address these issues, luxury brands will need to re-engage with entry price customers. Igniting brand desirability with new creative leadership alone is insufficient; luxury brands also need to have the right product mix. We update our weekly handbag price and mix barometer, with data for five brands across six countries. We focus on Burberry, Gucci, Prada, Louis Vuitton and Dior, and collect weekly pricing data (starting from 07-Aug-25) for handbags listed on each brand.com in France, China, Japan, the UK, the USA, and the UAE. Note that we also collect similar data for Chanel and outerwear data for Moncler, albeit from a later starting point, but do not present the data in this report. Burberry's handbags remain the most accessibly priced. Dior's handbags are priced the highest. We refer to prices listed on each brand's French brand.com as the baseline and include an analysis on the interquartile range of each brand to aid comparability. Burberry's interquartile range lies wholly below the €2k price-point; Gucci's median is just above €2k; Prada and Louis Vuitton's core product mix are surprisingly similar in distribution with a €2k to €3k interquartile range and €2.6k median; Dior is a step above with a €2.6k to €4k interquartile range. We would not read too deeply into minimum and maximum price points: some brands include wallets and small clutches under 'handbags' while not all high-end products are listed on each brand.com. We estimate that $>60\%$ of Burberry, Gucci and Dior's current handbag SKUs are 'new'.<40% of their SKUs tracked in Aug'25 have remained consistently listed over the five-month period to end-Dec. Burberry has been actively re-adjusting the lower-end of its mix; Gucci the upper-end. In contrast, $>50\%$ of SKUs listed on Prada and Louis Vuitton's websites have been left unchanged, beyond late-Nov's LFL price increases at Prada (<50% are 'new'): reflecting relative creative stability at the two brands. We expect more churn in 1H26: Burberry is expected to tweak its product mix further as its 'Burberry Forward' strategy matures. Creative debuts at Gucci and Dior should accelerate product mix changes (for an early example, see the 'Dior Bow'), ideally at the bottom-end of each brand's price ranges. Whether this will catalyze turnover at Prada and Louis Vuitton remains to be seen: Louis Vuitton has started to build momentum around the centenary of its 'LV' monogram, 'Monogram Anniversary' has quickly replaced festive highlights on brand.com - Prada too will need to fight harder for its share of the spotlight, potentially aided by its accessible nylon products. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE <table><tr><td rowspan="2" colspan="3"></td><td colspan="3">2 Jan 2026</td><td rowspan="2">TTM Rel.</td><td rowspan="2" colspan="4">Adjusted EPS</td><td rowspan="2" colspan="3">Adjusted P/E (x)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2">Closing</td><td>Price</td></tr><tr><td>Ticker</td><td>Rating</td><td>Cur</td><td>Price</td><td>Target</td><td>Perf.</td><td>Cur</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2024A</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>BIRK</td><td>M</td><td>USD</td><td>41.77</td><td>55.00</td><td>(41.9)%</td><td>EUR</td><td>1.85</td><td>2.03</td><td>2.49</td><td>19.2</td><td>17.6</td><td>14.3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>BC.IM</td><td>O</td><td>EUR</td><td>95.30</td><td>121.00</td><td>(39.9)%</td><td>EUR</td><td>1.76</td><td>2.09</td><td>2.36</td><td>54.2</td><td>45.5</td><td>40.3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>BRBY.LN</td><td>O</td><td>GBp</td><td>1,300.00</td><td>1,500.00</td><td>3.0%</td><td>GBP</td><td>(0.15)</td><td>0.21</td><td>0.47</td><td>(87.9)</td><td>61.6</td><td>27.6</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>CFR.SW</td><td>O</td><td>CHF</td><td>172.95</td><td>200.00</td><td>(3.3)%</td><td>EUR</td><td>6.39</td><td>5.91</td><td>6.92</td><td>29.2</td><td>31.5</td><td>26.9</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>ZGN</td><td>O</td><td>USD</td><td>10.43</td><td>13.00</td><td>6.5%</td><td>EUR</td><td>0.33</td><td>0.35</td><td>0.45</td><td>(0.0)%</td><td>3.3%</td><td>9.7%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>EL.FP</td><td>M</td><td>EUR</td><td>263.40</td><td>250.00</td><td>(17.7)%</td><td>EUR</td><td>6.79</td><td>7.35</td><td>8.19</td><td>38.8</td><td>35.9</td><td>32.1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>RMS.FP</td><td>O</td><td>EUR</td><td>2,113.00</td><td>2,650.00</td><td>(37.3)%</td><td>EUR</td><td>43.87</td><td>41.99</td><td>47.70</td><td>48.2</td><td>50.3</td><td>44.3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>KER.FP</td><td>U</td><td>EUR</td><td>305.00</td><td>250.00</td><td>3.8%</td><td>EUR</td><td>10.68</td><td>5.65</td><td>8.26</td><td>28.6</td><td>54.0</td><td>36.9</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>MC.FP</td><td>O</td><td>EUR</td><td>642.80</td><td>700.00</td><td>(27.0)%</td><td>EUR</td><td>26.07</td><td>22.29</td><td>24.81</td><td>24.7</td><td>28.8</td><td>25.9</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>MONC.IM</td><td>M</td><td>EUR</td><td>54.46</td><td>55.00</td><td>(21.7)%</td><td>EUR</td><td>2.36</td><td>2.23</td><td>2.37</td><td>23.0</td><td>24.4</td><td>23.0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>1913.HK (Prada SpA)</td><td>O</td><td>HKD</td><td>43.30</td><td>58.00</td><td>(60.5)%</td><td>EUR</td><td>0.33</td><td>0.33</td><td>0.35</td><td>14.5</td><td>14.5</td><td>13.6</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>SFER.IM</td><td>U</td><td>EUR</td><td>8.14</td><td>4.40</td><td>(8.5)%</td><td>EUR</td><td>(0.41)</td><td>(0.51)</td><td>0.00</td><td>(19.8)</td><td>(15.8)</td><td>N/M</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>UHR.SW</td><td>O</td><td>CHF</td><td>172.00</td><td>160.00</td><td>(22.9)%</td><td>CHF</td><td>3.71</td><td>2.14</td><td>3.77</td><td>46.4</td><td>80.4</td><td>45.6</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>SPX</td><td></td><td></td><td>6,902.05</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>EDM</td><td></td><td></td><td>1,614.53</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>EMLSF</td><td></td><td></td><td>6,092.93</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>ASIAX</td><td></td><td></td><td>1,689.55</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></table> O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended ZGN valuation is Revenues (M) CAGR; BIRK, BRBY.LN, CFR.SW base year is 2025; Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. # INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Our base case scenario for FY26E anticipates a gradual recovery of global luxury demand with steady currency growth around $5\%$ . This assumes a slow U-shaped revival in China (despite fragile economic conditions), pricing architecture adjustment and product newness refreshes from the luxury brands, and a continuation of resilient performance at the high end driven by buoyant demand at the top. Given these premises, we would therefore structure our portfolio according to the following criteria: 1) We would anticipate a quantum of intra-sector rotation away from self-help and into high quality names like Hermès, Richemont, and LVMH, especially if positive surprises continue into FY26E. 2) Within high-quality, Richemont is our top preference due to strong jewellery momentum and leadership, with Hermès and Brunello Cucinelli also favored for their quality and potential mean reversion. 3) LVMH sits between high quality and self-help, supported by efforts in Dior's revival, cost efficiencies, and Louis Vuitton's strength, with potential for long-only inflows if growth surprises continue in 4Q25E. 4) Within self-help/high-beta stocks brand momentum should be the centre of focus, instead of the temptation of mean reversion. Short Kering / Long Prada seems a reasonable stance going into FY26E, while monitoring Gucci's potential performance and Versace's strategic communication as possible catalysts. Burberry is our preferred self-help story, due to a combination of tailwinds from consumer trading down, and a convincing turnaround plan that have yielded early encouraging results. # DETAILS EXHIBIT 1: Product mix adjustments are required to convert brand recognition and traffic into revenues and shareholder returns. We provide a snapshot of the handbag product mix for five key brands as of end-2025 Handbag Price Architecture - France, in EUR - (29-Dec-25) Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 2: Relative product mix positioning remains largely consistent across brands and across regions: Burberry's handbags are priced the most accessibly, followed by Gucci, Prada, Louis Vuitton and Dior. Handbag Price Architecture - China, in RMB - (29-Dec-25) Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates # PROPORTION OF SKUS ADJUSTED OVER TIME EXHIBIT 3: Price positioning of LFL SKUs = SKUs which have remained listed since Aug'25 Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 4: Price positioning of all handbag SKUs listed on brand.com's as of end-2025 Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 5: Comparing the relative proportion of unchanged (LFL) and new (non-LFL) SKUs by brand and price point highlights slight differences in each brand's product strategy. Burberry, Gucci and Dior have exhibited greater product mix adjustment over 2H25A as their strategies mature or adapt; Prada and Louis Vuitton remain relatively stable. Note that the total % calculated for Dior excludes price points affected by changes to the data collection process implemented in Oct'25 Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates # BOX PLOTS - OTHER REGIONS EXHIBIT 6: Handbag Mix - UK Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 7: Handbag Mix - USA Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 8: Handbag Mix - Japan Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 9: Handbag Mix - UAE Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates # HISTOGRAMS (COUNT OF SKUS AT EACH PRICE POINT), BY BRAND EXHIBIT 10: Burberry - Histogram - France Handbag Price Architecture - Histogram Burberry, in France - (29-Dec-25) Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 11: Gucci - Histogram - France Handbag Price Architecture - Histogram Gucci, in France - (29-Dec-25) Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 12: Prada - Histogram - France Handbag Price Architecture - Histogram Prada, in France - (29-Dec-25) Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 13: Louis Vuitton - Histogram - France Handbag Price Architecture - Histogram Louis Vuitton, in France - (29-Dec-25) Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 14: Dior - Histogram - France Handbag Price Architecture - Histogram Dior, in France - (29-Dec-25) Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates EXHIBIT 15: Chanel - Histogram - France Handbag Price Architecture - Histogram Chanel, in France - (29-Dec-25) Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis and estimates # TIME-SERIES STATISTICS - FRANCE We provide a snapshot of how product mix has developed between Aug'25 and Dec'25 for each of the brands. We focus on the four main markets (Europe = France, China, the USA, and Japan). Data for the UK and UAE is available upon request. Data for Chanel is also available upon request. Note that we adjusted the data collection process for Dior between Oct'25 and Nov'25. Data from Nov'25 captured a greater number of lower-priced SKUs. Data from Dec'25 are not directly comparable with data before Nov'25. EXHIBIT 16: Like for Like Prices - France Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 17: Average Prices - France Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 18: 1st Quartile - France Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 19: 3rd Quartile - France Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis # TIME-SERIES STATISTICS - CHINA Note that we adjusted the data collection process for Dior between Oct'25 and Nov'25. Data from Nov'25 captured a greater number of lower-priced SKUs. Data from Dec'25 are not directly comparable with data before Nov'25. EXHIBIT 20: Like for Like Prices - China Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 21: Average Prices - China Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 22:1st Quartile - China Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 23: 3rd Quartile - China Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis # TIME-SERIES STATISTICS - USA Note that we adjusted the data collection process for Dior between Oct'25 and Nov'25. Data from Nov'25 captured a greater number of lower-priced SKUs. Data from Dec'25 are not directly comparable with data before Nov'25. EXHIBIT 24: Like for Like Prices - USA Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 25: Average Prices - USA Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 26:1st Quartile - USA Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 27: 3rd Quartile - USA Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis # TIME-SERIES STATISTICS - JAPAN Note that we adjusted the data collection process for Dior between Oct'25 and Nov'25. Data from Nov'25 captured a greater number of lower-priced SKUs. Data from Dec'25 are not directly comparable with data before Nov'25. EXHIBIT 28: Like for Like Prices - Japan Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 29: Average Prices - Japan Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 30: 1st Quartile - Japan Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 31: 3rd Quartile - Japan Source: brand.com, Bernstein analysis # I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the "Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司, Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited and Sanford C. 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The Firm has established, maintains and relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas (i.e. the private side) within the Firm, and into other areas, units, groups or affiliates (i.e. public side) of the Firm DISTRIBUTION OF EQUITY RATINGS/INVESTMENT BANKING SERVICES <table><tr><td>Equity Rating</td><td>Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) and FINRA Rating Category</td><td>Global Rating Distribution</td><td>Investment Banking Relationships*</td></tr><tr><td>Outperform</td><td>BUY</td><td>51.4%</td><td>16.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Market-Perform (Bernstein Brand) Neutral (Autonomous Brand)</td><td>HOLD</td><td>34.7%</td><td>18.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Underperform</td><td>SELL</td><td>13.9%</td><td>13.4%</td></tr></table> * These figures represent the percentage of companies within each equity rating category for which affiliates of Bernstein have provided investment banking services within the previous 12 months. As of December 31, 2025. All figures are updated quarterly. # PRICE CHARTS/ RATINGS AND PRICE TARGET HISTORY This research publication covers six or more companies. For price chart and other company disclosures, please visit https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or you can write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. # CONFLICTS OF INTEREST Bernstein Autonomous LLP or BSG France SA, beneficially, has either a net long or short position of $0.5\%$ or more of the total issued share capital of a class of common equity securities of the following MiFID eligible securities: Burberry Group PLC. AB and/or its affiliates beneficially own $1\%$ or more of a class of common equity securities of the following company: Burberry Group PLC. SG and/or its affiliates beneficially own $1\%$ or more of a class of common equity securities of the following company: Burberry Group PLC. Bernstein and/or affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services in the past twelve months from Burberry Group PLC, Kering SA and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE. Bernstein and/or affiliates have received compensation for non-investment banking securities-related products or services in the previous twelve months from the following clients: Burberry Group PLC, Cie Financiere Richemont SA, EssilorLuxottica SA, Kering SA, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE and Swatch Group AG/The. Bernstein has received compensation for non-investment banking securities-related products or services in the previous twelve months from the following clients: Hermes International. Bernstein and/or affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Kering SA. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities of: Birkenstock Holding Plc, Brunello Cucinelli, Burberry Group PLC, Cie Financiere Richemont SA, EssilorLuxottica SA, Hermes International, Kering SA, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, Moncler SpA, Salvatore Ferragamo SpA and Swatch Group AG/The. Bernstein and/or affiliates had an investment banking client relationship during the past twelve months with Burberry Group PLC, Kering SA and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market maker or liquidity provider in the debt securities of: Cie Financiere Richemont SA, Kering SA and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE. 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