2009年-世界发展银行全球_Aceh_Growth_Diagnostic___Identifying_the_Binding_Constraints_to_Growth_in_a_Post-Conflict_and_Post-Disaster_Environment_77页_663kb

报告摘要

Aceh Growth Diagnostic Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Aceh Growth Diagnostic: Identifying the binding constraints to growth in a post-conflict and post-disaster environment, was published by the World Bank in July 2009. It analyzes the factors that are constraining economic growth and investment in Aceh, Indonesia, following the end of the 30-year conflict and the conclusion of the post-tsunami reconstruction program. The report highlights the need for the private sector to become a growth engine and emphasizes the importance of addressing both immediate and underlying constraints to investment and economic development.

Main Points

Economic Growth and Investment Trends

Aceh's economic growth has been slow and volatile, especially in the non-oil and gas sector.
GDP per capita in Aceh is close to the national average, but poverty remains high at 23.5% in 2008.
The non-oil and gas sector experienced growth of over 7% in 2006 and 2007, but this slowed significantly to 1.9% in 2008, well below the national average of 6%.
Investment as a share of GDP in Aceh was 13% in 2008, much lower than the national average of 24%.
Investment credit in Aceh is also low, accounting for less than 8% of GDP.

Constraints to Investment

The report identifies several key constraints to investment and growth in Aceh:

Access to Credit
- Financing is a significant problem.
- The cost of capital is high.
- Low savings and lack of access to external finance contribute to the issue.
- Poor intermediary functions by local banks hinder credit availability.
- Credit rationing by banks is also a concern.
Low Social Returns
- Infrastructure issues, particularly roads and electricity, are major constraints.
- The electrification rate in Aceh is on par with the rest of Indonesia, but reliability is poor.
- Businesses report frequent electricity interruptions, affecting manufacturing and agro-processing.
- Government spending on infrastructure has increased since 2004, but the quality and reliability remain inadequate.
Low Appropriability
- Macroeconomic risks and an unfavorable business environment hinder investment.
- Corruption and illegal taxation are significant concerns.
- Transaction costs, including security payments, add to the burden on businesses.
- Coordination and information failures in markets also impede investment.

Security and Conflict Legacy

Despite peace since 2005, the legacy of conflict continues to affect economic development.
Security concerns and illegal extortion are major deterrents to investment.
Businesses in Aceh report higher levels of security and conflict-related constraints compared to other provinces.
Violent incidents are linked to poorer firm performance.
Almost 25% of businesses report paying for extra security, indicating ongoing security challenges.

Key Recommendations

Improve Electricity Supply: Enhance the reliability of electricity from the Sumatra Interconnection System and consider private sector involvement in renewable energy sources.
Strengthen Rule of Law: Improve police and judiciary capacity to address security concerns and illegal extortion.
Promote Inclusive Growth: Focus on sectors that provide employment and benefits to the majority, especially the poor and vulnerable.
Support Agriculture and Fisheries: These sectors are crucial for inclusive growth, and efforts should be made to remove barriers and improve access to credit and assets.
Enhance Public Services: Improve extension services, irrigation, and other public goods to support the private sector and promote growth.

Conclusion

The report concludes that addressing the constraints to investment and growth in Aceh is essential for achieving sustainable and inclusive development. It stresses that the post-conflict environment and lingering security issues play a critical role in limiting investment and economic growth. The recommendations emphasize the need for both immediate and long-term strategies to improve the investment climate and ensure that the benefits of growth are widely shared.

Key Information

GDP per capita in Aceh is close to the national average, but the poverty rate is high.
Reconstruction efforts have driven growth, but the post-reconstruction period has seen a slowdown.
Private investment is crucial for long-term growth, but constraints such as access to credit and security concerns limit its potential.
Electricity supply is a major constraint, with frequent interruptions affecting business operations.
Security and illegal extortion are significant barriers to investment, especially in post-conflict areas.
Inclusive growth in agriculture and fisheries is key to reducing poverty and promoting stability.

Structure of the Report

Foreword: Highlights the current situation and the importance of addressing growth constraints.
Acknowledgments: Credits the team and organizations involved in the report.
Glossary of Terms: Provides definitions of key terms used in the report.
Executive Summary: Summarizes the main findings and recommendations.
Introduction: Explains the purpose of the report and the importance of private sector investment.
Methodology: Describes the use of the Growth Diagnostic Framework.
Understanding Investment and Growth in Aceh: Discusses the role of investment in economic growth.
Conflict and Post-Conflict Environment: Analyzes the impact of conflict on economic development.
Access to Credit: Examines the availability and cost of capital in Aceh.
Low Social Returns: Focuses on infrastructure and public services.
Low Appropriability: Looks at macroeconomic risks, corruption, and market failures.
Conclusions: Summarizes the main findings and policy recommendations.
References and Annexes: Includes additional data and analysis for reference.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Aceh's GDP per capita is very close to the national average.
Figure 2: Framework adapted from Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (2005).
Figure 3: Aceh has been growing at lower levels than Indonesia for most of the decade.
Figure 4: Provincial minimum wages in Aceh have increased more than in the rest of the country.
Figure 5: Violence in Aceh from January 2005 to December 2008.
Figure 6: Credit over GRDP is very low in Aceh.
Figure 7 and 8: Real and nominal investment lending rates in Aceh and national average.
Figure 9: GDP growth does not react to different interest rates.
Figure 10: Savings per GRDP for Indonesian provinces, 2006.
Figure 11: Government funds account for a high share of deposits in Aceh.
Figure 12: Construction and trade sectors receive a relatively large share of credit in Aceh.
Figure 13: How firms assess the condition of different types of infrastructure.
Figure 14: Government spending on infrastructure in Aceh has been increasing since 2004.
Figure 15: Aceh lacks the necessary idle power reserve to avoid supply disruptions.
Figure 16: Indonesia's business environment remained relatively poor in 2009.
Figure 17: Sectoral composition of the sample of the Asia Foundation / KPPOD survey.
Figure 18: Firm performance and violent incidents, per district.
Figure 19: Mobile phone subscribers in Aceh for the leading provider and number of "warnets".
Table 1: How the conflict could affect the economy.
Table 2: Employment creation in Aceh.
Table 3: Economic growth in Aceh.
Table 4: Aceh's poverty rate projections in five years.
Table 5: Investment and working capital credit as share of GRDP.
Table 6: Average nominal interest rates, December 2008.
Table 7: Investment and working capital credit as share of total credit.
Table 8: Income and wealth (men only).
Table 9: Infrastructure condition in Aceh and Indonesia, 2005.
Table 10: Road condition in Aceh, 2006.
Table 11: Aceh's electrification rate is on par with the rest of Indonesia.
Table 12: Educational attainment.
Table 13: Basic characteristics comparing ex-TNA, civilian victims, and non-victims (men only).
Table 14: Health and education professionals.
Table 15: Returns to education - predicted increase in wage.
Table 16: Corruption perception index.
Table 17: Type of livelihood (men only).
Table 18: Friends and business partners - comparison of ex-com groups (%).
Table 19: Aceh's non-oil and gas exports, US$.
Table 20: Constraints to growth in Aceh.

Boxes

Box 1: Disentangling the effects of the tsunami, reconstruction, and end of conflict on growth.
Box 2: Investment data.
Box 3: Revitalizing Aceh's agriculture.
Box 4: Is the conflict an impediment to accessing credit?
Box 5: New industries emerging in Aceh.

Final Notes

The report underscores that the conflict and its aftermath have had a lasting impact on Aceh's economy, affecting investment and growth. It suggests that a combination of policy reforms and improved public services is necessary to foster sustainable and inclusive growth. Ultimately, it emphasizes that addressing these constraints is not only crucial for economic development but also for maintaining peace and stability in the region.

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