> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观经济深度研究 # 纵横捭阖：全球价值链重构与中国产业体系突破 # ——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之一 在国际环境错综复杂、变数叠加的背景下，“十五五”规划建议继续提出扩大高水平对外开放，释放出中国坚持开放合作、互利共赢的信号。自加入世界贸易组织以来，中国深度嵌入全球分工体系，快速发展为制造强国、贸易强国。这不仅昭示于产出与贸易规模的跨越式扩张，更深植于产业与贸易结构的嬗变之中。以全球价值链（Global Value Chain，GVC）为透镜，可以将贸易总额拆解为逐个生产环节的增加值，由此映射出中国产业体系跃迁的三点主要特征：第一，出口创造的增加值快速扩张；第二，产业体系完整且具备国际竞争力；第三，价值链位置向上游攀升。然而近年来，国际经贸秩序受到技术霸权以及贸易单边主义和保护主义的严峻挑战，全球价值链分工程度出现下降趋势。在变局之中，中国产业体系正施展“纵横捭阖”之策，以平衡内向升级之“纵”与外向布局之“横”。面对纵向断链风险，中国积极部署核心技术攻关和产业升级，并挖掘现代服务业潜力，全面向高附加值环节迈进。针对横向重构压力，中国企业全球布局从产品出海向跨国建链加速转变，同时以深化区域合作提供制度保障，共同增强产业体系的供应链韧性。在这种纵横交织的体系重构中，贸易创新深化和对外投资拓展将驱动中国产业体系实现深层次的战略突破，在不确定的外部环境中锻造出自主可控的强大韧性，并源源不断地提供迈向现代化的经济新动能。 以GVC框架解析中国出口的增加值沉淀，可以描绘出中国产业体系跃迁的三大关键特征：规模扩张、体系完备、链位上升。要理解这些变化的内在逻辑，需要先回到其所嵌入的GVC网络。GVC本质是一张跨国分工协作的生产网络——生产链条上的设计、研发、制造、组装、营销等环节分散在不同国家，价值在各环节的接力中不断累积，形成最终的产品供给。不妨举个简单的例子，A国向B国出口价值100元的中间品，B国稍作加工，将价值120元的最终品再卖给C国。按照传统贸易统计，三国的贸易总额达到了220元。但在GVC视角下，真正沉淀下来的是A国的100元与B国的20元增加值，最终都被C国吸收。所以，传统贸易数据因同时涵盖中间品与最终品的价值，难以避免重复计算，也容易掩盖真正的价值来源。GVC所提供的增值贸易（Trade in Value-Added，TiVA）数据可以拨开迷雾：一国的出口由国内增加值（DVA）、国外增加值（FVA）和重复计算部分（PDC）构成，其中唯有DVA才代表该国境内的真实产出贡献。基于此，下文将借助王直等（2015）的GVC分解框架，从总量、结构与技术三个维度，勾勒中国出口贸易与产业体系演进的内在轮廓。 2025年12月30日 程实，博士 (852) 2683 3231 shi.cheng@icbci.com 尹学钰，博士 (852) 2683 3864 sherry.yin@icbci.com # 相关研究： 12/23/2025：《中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向》 12/16/2025：《每一代人都有自己的Labubu——从新需求×新供给看中国消费新格局》 12/12/2025：《格物致知，成势在人——投资于物和投资于人的时代逻辑》 12/11/2025：《利率下行，风险上行——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评》 12/5/2025：《人工智能浪潮中的真实与泡影》 11/24/2025：《在临界中博弈路径——2026年全球大类资产展望》 11/21/2025：《在交汇中重塑平衡——2026年香港经济展望》 11/20/2025：《在变化中破局开新——2026年中国经济展望》 11/17/2025：《在混沌中构建秩序——2026年全球经济展望》 10/30/2025：《加速降息进行时——2025年10月美联储议息会议点评》 10/22/2025：《从安倍经济学到早苗经济学》 10/14/2025：《创新的力量——2025年诺贝尔经济学奖点评》 10/14/2025：《货币政策跨境传导的美元渠道》 9/30/2025：《顺应民心所向，激发内需动能》 9/18/2025：《规则之外，预期之内——2025年9月美联储议息会议点评》 9/11/2025：《老去的债务与新生的风险》 8/27/2025：《厚积薄发，静水流深-人工智能+的微观观察与宏观潜能》 图1：贸易多次跨境与价值重复计算示意图 资料来源：Ravikumar和Reinbold（2019）²及工银国际绘制 第一，出口创造的增加值规模快速扩张，中国已成为全球生产分工的关键枢纽。2000至2017年，中国在全球生产分工网络中迅速由边缘走向中心。近年来，随着科技创新与产业升级的加速推进，出口所沉淀的国内增加值再度实现快速扩张，并多年稳居全球首位。中国与更多经济体之间形成了更具韧性的双向贸易联系，从原本的价值链参与者逐步成长为全球生产体系的中枢之一，对全球贸易的稳定发挥着日益显著的支撑作用。 图2：中国在全球生产分工网络中确立枢纽地位 资料来源：ADB MRIO 数据库及工银国际计算 第二，产业体系完整，多项制造业门类跻身全球前列。中国是全球唯一拥有联合国产业分类下全部工业门类的经济体，这一“全谱系”特征构成了产业纵深的底盘。以DVA衡量，2024年中国跻身全球前十的制造业行业数量已超过德国、美国等传统制造强国，完整体系与规模优势清晰可见。更重要的是，这些行业的全球增加值份额平均达到 $22\%$ ，显著领先其他经济体，显示出扎实的市场竞争力。其中，纺织品和皮革制造业的全球份额均逾五成，电气设备制造业亦占据全球 $35\%$ ，体现出中国产业集群在全球市场中的稳固位置。 图3：中国产业“全谱系”优势及重点行业全球增加值份额（2024年） 资料来源：ADB MRIO 数据库及工银国际计算 第三，在贸易升级和科技创新双轮驱动下，价值链位置稳步向上游攀升。一般而言，生产活动中的价值分布呈现“微笑曲线”4：上游的研发设计与下游的品牌服务价值密度最高，中游的制造组装附加值相对有限。改革开放初期，加工贸易的“两头在外”模式承载了中国迈向世界工厂的第一步。随着贸易自主性提升、产业结构迭代加快，加工贸易在出口中的占比不断回落——从2000年的 $55.2\%$ 下降至2025年前11个月的 $18.8\%$ 。与此同时，高技术制造业增加值持续跑赢制造业整体，高新技术产品在出口中的比重由2000年的 $15\%$ 升至2025年前11个月的 $25\%$ ，科技含量与复杂度显著提升。从GVC角度看，这意味着中国正由依赖进口中间品的后向（backward）参与稳步转向自主供给中间品的前向（forward）参与。这种转变体现在GVC位置的持续攀升上，GVC位置衡量的是一国作为上游中间品供应商的程度（前向价值链长度）与作为下游加工者的程度（后向价值链长度）之比，取值越大表明越靠近上游。当前，中国的GVC位置位于美国、德国、英国等发达经济体与越南、泰国、印度等发展中经济体之间，并沿着“微笑曲线”左侧持续向上，向着更高的价值分配空间迈进。 图4：国内增加值占比与全球价值链位置的“微笑曲线”（2024年）5 资料来源：ADB MRIO 数据库及工银国际计算 然而，随着中国的GVC位置不断向上游攀升，纵向价值链的断链风险随之凸显，中国掌握主动权的关键在于推动产业向高附加值环节全面升级。全球价值链的分工模式可以抽象为两个基本类型，纵向（蛇形）与横向（蜘蛛形），不过现实世界多呈混合形态<sup>6</sup>。纵向价值链以商品从上游到下游的顺序流动和逐级增值为主要特征，强调垂直专业化分工和高效率的全球资源配置。不过，在地缘竞争不断升温的当下，这种模式由于依赖单一来源或关键节点，脆弱性可能放大。所谓“卡脖子”，正是源于上游关键技术、原材料、专用设备的垄断者，借助出口管制、实体清单等行政工具，对下游价值链实施针对性约束，尤其对中高端制造业构成掣肘。 图5：纵向、横向、混合型价值链示意图 资料来源：Jones等（2019）7及工银国际绘制 5气泡大小代表总出口规模。 $^{6}$ Baldwin, R., & Venables, A. J. (2013). Spiders and snakes: Offshoring and agglomeration in the global economy. Journal of International Economics, 90(2), 245-254. <sup>7</sup> Jones, L., Demirkaya, M., & Bethmann, E. (2019). Global value chain analysis: concepts and approaches. J. Int'l Com. & Econ., 1. 因此，中国的中高端制造业将加速向产业链上游迈进，重点聚焦研发与核心技术突破。从微观企业实践来看，路径已经十分清晰：不只停留在传统加工制造的中游，而是持续向上游的研发设计、核心零部件制造升级。出口结构的变化便是最直观的写照，2017年，中国通过出口获得的国内增加值中，中间品只占最终品的三分之一，到2024年，这一比例已升至过半，显示出出口结构快速向价值链上游转变。技术端的突破，为这一跃升提供了坚实支点。2025年，中国首次进入全球创新指数前十，在人工智能、新能源、生命健康等重点领域储备的一批高价值核心专利夯实了产业突破的技术底座。随着基础研究投入持续加码、关键核心技术攻关不断深化，中国在高性能芯片、操作系统、光刻机、航空发动机等技术领域陆续取得突破，进口替代稳步推进。 不仅如此，现代服务业正成为推动价值链整体跃升的新动力。生产性服务业积极向价值链下游的品牌服务拓展，生活性服务业持续扩容提质。工业设计、技术咨询、品牌运营等服务嵌入制造，为制造业捕获更高的利润空间，带动整个链条向高端延伸。潮玩品牌泡泡玛特（9992.HK）便是典型案例，以实物商品销售为主营业务，实质上依托知识产权运营和品牌经济，其价值创造早已跳出了传统制造的范畴。更广泛的层面上，商务部的研究显示，单位服务贸易出口带来的国内增加值远高于货物出口<sup>8</sup>。随着入境游增长、信息技术研发扩张、数字内容走向全球，中国在GVC中的价值获取能力将被进一步激发。 面对贸易保护主义下的横向价值链重构风险，中国构建韧性的关键则在于优化全球布局和深化区域合作。横向价值链分工模式依赖于将全球分散生产的零部件集中组装，主要特征为结构可重构、环节可替代。但近年来，单边主义、保护主义抬头却推高了另一种选择：企业将海外生产环节迁回本土的回岸生产（reshoring）不断增加，以求缩短供应链并稳住就业；向地理更近的地区迁移的近岸外包（nearshoring），以及向地缘政治更友好的地区迁移的友岸外包（friendshoring）。基于上市公司财报电话会议文本的微观证据表明，这三类动作的提及频次明显升高（Alfaro和Chor，2023）。宏观数据也给出了呼应，2017—2020年和2021—2024年间，在友岸外包等逆全球化趋势上升的阶段，全球贸易的FVA含量连续下降，表明跨境分工程度降低。国际贸易距离随之变短，GVC长度收缩，最直接的结果是制造业外迁加速，而各经济体的比较优势在更短链条里难以充分展开。 图6：回岸生产、近岸外包、友岸外包词频增加与跨国分工程度降低 资料来源：Alfaro 和 Chor (2023) ${}^{9}$ 、ADB MRIO 数据库及工银国际测算 ${}^{10}$ 在此趋势下，中国企业正在以主动布局来化解风险，实现从产品出海到跨国建链的过渡。越来越多具有竞争力的中国企业正主动加快“走出去”的步伐，在海外落地生产、组装与营销基地，构建多点分布的产业网络。海外工厂的形成不仅是产能的外延，更是一种风险的分散，帮助企业保持更强的供应链韧性。虽然从贸易统计口径看，海外产能的增加值计入产地国，但价值链的源头并未因此外移<sup>11</sup>。大量高附加值的核心零部件、关键中间品与生产设备仍由中国母公司提供，研发、品牌与知识产权等高价值环节依旧掌握在总部手中。例如，TCL电子（1070.HK）在越南建立模组整机一体化智能制造基地，比亚迪（002594.SZ/1211.HK）在泰国投建首个海外乘用车工厂，正是这种转型的缩影。 与此同时，中国正在以区域合作的深度化，为全球布局注入制度性的稳定力量。《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）与共建“一带一路”倡议，使中国与东盟及其他伙伴国之间的经贸联结更加紧密。自2023年起，东盟已成为中国第一大贸易伙伴。2025年前11个月，中国同东盟贸易占同期中国外贸总值的 $16.6\%$ 。双向投资也持续扩大，截至2025年7月，中国同东盟累计双向投资超4500亿美元。2025年前11个月，中国对“一带一路”国家的出口占比提升至 $50.5\%$ ，显著拓宽了市场腹地，也降低了贸易成本。在这种多层级、多通道的连接之下，中国与区域内经济体形成了更高程度的协同与互补，使全球价值链重构不再是风险因素，而是成为稳定基础和增量来源。 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其裁明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2025版权所有。保留一切权利。 # UK This communication is sent on behalf of ICBC International Securities Limited, being a subsidiary of ICBC International Holdings Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Hong Kong (collectively with other subsidiaries of ICBC International Holdings Limited, the "ICBCI Group"). 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