20250617-开源证券-基础化工行业点评报告_聚酯瓶片工厂陆续宣布减停产计划_价差有望迎来向上修复行情_3页_322kb

Industry Analysis Summary: Polyester Bottle Film Sector

Key Developments

• Polyester bottle film manufacturers, including Yisheng, China Resources Material, Vanke New Materials, and Sinopec, have announced plans to reduce production by approximately 20% starting in July 2025. This involves capacities of around 259–490 million tons, with current average production load expected to drop to about 77%, down from a high of 94.3% in May 2025.

Price Dynamics

• Current price spreads for polyester bottle film are at deficit levels (around 291 yuan/ton as of June 16, 2025), partly due to high costs of raw materials like PTA and ethylene glycol, which have risen significantly. Reduced production is anticipated to tighten supply, potentially improving price spreads.

Industry Outlook

• Polyester bottle film industry expansion has largely ended after years of overcapacity, leading to supply excesses and industry-wide losses in 2024. A positive turnover point is expected in 2025, with some companies (e.g., Vanke New Materials) already reducing losses or achieving profitability.

Investment Recommendations

• Suggested beneficiaries include Vanke New Materials, China Resources Material, Sanfang Alley, Hengyi Chemical, and Rongsheng Chemical, supported by a "Strongly Recommended" rating.

Risks

• Vulnerability to crude oil price fluctuations and potential underperformance in downstream demand may offset gains.

This summary highlights a cyclical recovery in the sector, with production cuts aiming to address oversupply and stabilize pricing.