20171009-法国巴黎银行-FX_QUANT_DAILY__BNP_PARIBAS_STEER_16页_777kb

BNP Paribas FX Strategy Summary - 9 October 2017

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the BNP Paribas STEER™ model's trading signals and insights for the foreign exchange market as of 9 October 2017. It outlines the current positions, target levels, stop losses, and returns for various currency pairs across G10, Emerging Markets (EM), and Latin America (Latam) regions.

Trading Signals

New Signals

• SHORT EURHUF
  • Entry Rate: 312.10
  • Target: 310.54
  • Stop Loss: 312.88
  • Return: 0.00%

Closed Signals

• SHORT USDZAR

  • Entry Rate: 13.6708
  • Close Rate: 13.7562 (06-Oct-17)
  • Return: -0.62%

• SHORT USDMXN

  • Entry Rate: 18.4956
  • Close Rate: 18.5723 (06-Oct-17)
  • Return: -0.41%

Existing Signals

• SHORT USDCAD

  • Entry Rate: 1.2578
  • Target: 1.2390
  • Stop Loss: 1.2687
  • Return: 0.28%

• SHORT EURNOK

  • Entry Rate: 9.3752
  • Target: 9.2618
  • Stop Loss: 9.4320
  • Return: -0.02%

• SHORT EURSEK

  • Entry Rate: 9.5247
  • Target: 9.4567
  • Stop Loss: 9.5750
  • Return: -0.01%

Recently Closed Signals

• SHORT USDTRY

  • Entry Rate: 3.5762
  • Close Rate: 3.5898 (06-Oct-17)
  • Return: -0.38%

• SHORT USDCLP

  • Entry Rate: 630.95
  • Close Rate: 632.95 (05-Oct-17)
  • Return: -0.32%

Key Insights

• The USD is considered overvalued against both G10 and EM currencies.
• In EM, ZAR, IDR, and CLP are seen as undervalued relative to the USD.
• G10 commodity currencies have underreacted to the rise in oil prices.
• EURSEK is identified as overbought, with a potential for further decline.
• EURHUF's STEER has declined due to the rise in Hungarian 2y yields, suggesting the recent rally was overdone.

Deviation from Short-Term Value (Z-Score)

G10 Currencies

CEEMEA & APAC

Latin America

Driving Factors

• The USD is seen as overvalued.
• G10 commodity currencies have underreacted to rising oil prices.
• EURSEK and EURHUF have been overbought, with potential for correction.
• ZAR, IDR, and CLP are undervalued against the USD in EM.
• EURSEK's rally is considered overdone based on short-term fundamentals.

Global Strategy Contacts

Emerging Markets FX & IR Strategy

Legal and Distribution Notes

• This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• It is intended for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties under MiFID.
• No liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on this document.
• The document may contain back-tested performance data and is for informational purposes only.
• It is not a prospectus or public offering and does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice.
• The information is confidential and may not be distributed without prior consent.
• BNP Paribas may engage in transactions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in this document.

Disclaimer

• This document is for information purposes only.
• It does not constitute an offer to sell or issue, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy.
• All information is subject to change and may not be accurate or complete.
• No assurance is given that any returns or results will be achieved.
• BNP Paribas and its affiliates may have financial interests in the securities mentioned.
• The indicative prices and terms are based on internal models and may vary significantly from other sources.