2017年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_Developments_in_2016___Policy_Uncertainty_Weighs_on_World_Trade_26页_4mb

2016 Global Trade Developments Summary

Core Content

2016 marked the fifth consecutive year of sluggish trade growth and the weakest trade performance since the 2008 global financial crisis. Trade growth in goods and services was estimated to range from 1.9% to 2.5%, but preliminary data suggested that merchandise trade volumes grew by only about 1%. This slowdown affected both advanced and emerging economies, unlike previous post-crisis years where emerging economies typically drove growth.

Main Views

What Is Happening?

• Trade growth in 2016 was the lowest since the 2008 crisis.
• Goods and services trade values have diverged since 2008, with services trade showing more resilience.
• Merchandise trade volumes almost stagnated in 2016, while services trade showed signs of recovery.
• Emerging economies' trade dynamism declined in 2016 due to falling commodity prices and China's economic rebalancing.

Why?

• Structural factors such as the maturing of global value chains (GVCs) and slower trade liberalization contributed to the trade slowdown.
• Cyclical factors included slow global growth, low commodity prices, and China's shift from export and investment-driven growth.
• Economic policy uncertainty had a significant negative impact on trade growth, with a 1% increase in uncertainty associated with a 0.02-percentage point reduction in trade growth.
• Policy uncertainty may have reduced trade growth by about 0.6 percentage points in 2016, accounting for 75% of the decline from 2015 to 2016.
• Protectionism was not the main driver of the trade slowdown, but trade policy uncertainty likely contributed to overall economic policy uncertainty.

Does It Matter?

• The trade slowdown is linked to the maturation of GVCs and may explain part of the recent productivity slowdown.
• There is a positive association between labor productivity and vertical specialization in GVCs.
• A 10% increase in GVC participation increased average labor productivity by 1.7%.
• The slowdown in GVC expansion may be due to policy choices, as the benefits of past trade reforms have matured and new reforms have not advanced.

Key Information

• Trade Growth:

  • 2016 saw the lowest trade growth since 2008.
  • Goods trade growth was estimated at 1.9%–2.5%, with merchandise trade volumes growing by only about 1%.
  • Services trade showed more resilience and signs of recovery.

• Structural Determinants:

  • Maturing GVCs and slower trade liberalization contributed to the trade slowdown.
  • The long-term trade elasticity to GDP declined from over 2 in the 1990s to near 1 in the 2000s.

• Policy Uncertainty:

  • Economic policy uncertainty negatively affected trade growth.
  • It may explain up to 75% of the trade slowdown in 2016.
  • Trade policy uncertainty was likely a component of the broader economic policy uncertainty.

• Global Value Chains (GVCs):

  • GVCs have been a key driver of trade and productivity growth.
  • The slowdown in GVC expansion may be the reason behind the productivity slowdown.
  • GVC participation increased labor productivity by 1.7% with a 10% increase.

• Trade Agreements:

  • Trade agreements have significantly contributed to world trade growth.
  • Without trade agreements, world trade growth would have been about 2 percentage points lower annually.
  • WTO membership increased trade by 65%, while preferential trade agreements more than doubled trade between members.

• Productivity and Trade:

  • Productivity growth slowed from an average of 2% (1994–2008) to 1% (post-crisis).
  • Trade, especially through intermediate inputs, enhances productivity.
  • The slowdown in trade growth is partially due to the deceleration in GVC expansion.

Conclusion

The trade slowdown in 2016 is attributed to a combination of structural and cyclical factors, with policy uncertainty playing a major role. GVCs have been a key driver of trade and productivity, and their slowdown may be the underlying cause of the productivity slowdown. Trade agreements have been crucial in supporting trade growth, and their absence would have led to a more severe decline. The interplay between trade policy and economic policy uncertainty highlights the importance of stable and predictable trade policies for global trade and productivity.