20250901-招银国际-中国太保-02601.HK-Life_OPAT_outperformed_2Q_earnings_and_NAV_returned_to_a_healthy_trend_7页_914kb

CPIC (2601 HK) - Life OPAT Outperformed, Returns to Health

Key Financial Highlights

• 2Q Performance:
  • Group & Life OPAT grew 7.1% and 5% LFL, respectively.
  • Net profit rebounded 11% YoY in H1 to RMB 27.9bn (36% YoY growth in 2Q25).
  • NAV fell 3.3% YoY in H1, but improved 7% QoQ in 2Q, driven by stable interest rates.
  • NBV surged 32.3% LFL in H1 (23% YoY in 2Q), primarily from bancassurance (+156% LFL) offset by agency decline (-2.5%).
  • Life’s NBV margin rose to 15.0% (up 0.4pct YoY).
  • Participating FYRP jumped >13x YoY to RMB 10.1bn (43% mix, up 40pct YoY).
  • Wealth management and securities trading contributed to revenue growth.

Valuation & Outlook

• Target Price: Raised TP to HK$40.00 (0.6x FY25E P/EV).
• EPS Estimates: Updated FY25-27E EPS to RMB4.54/4.81/5.28 (up 9%/4%/2%).
• Risks:
  • Par sales volumes may not meet expectations due to PIR cuts narrowing guaranteed rates.
  • Catastrophic claims, interest volatility, and equity market risks.
  • Caution on FY25E profitability due to high H224 investment income base.

Forward Guidance

• Par Products: Sales expected to rise in H25, supported by new PIR cuts.
• NBV Growth: Life NBV projected to accelerate in Q3/4, driven by bancassurance and floating-yield products.
• P&C Segment: Claims ratio in-line, with auto insurance turning profitable in health sector.

DCF & Sensitivity

• Valuation targets: HK$40 based on SOTP, reflecting upside from UW profitability and par sales momentum.