> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH) Summary ## Core Content Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH) is a Chinese capital goods company that has been reviewed in a post-results call, with several key insights and financial forecasts provided. The report highlights the company's performance, future expectations, and valuation metrics. ## Key Takeaways - **Mexico Operation Loss Reduction**: The loss from the Mexico operation decreased from RMB60mn in 1Q26 to RMB20mn in 2Q26, with an expected full-year loss of approximately RMB100mn. - **Precision Industry Turnaround**: The precision industry segment (excluding ball screws) is expected to turn profitable in 2027E, with revenue growth and a production value target of RMB2bn annually. - **Hydraulic Components Demand**: Demand for hydraulic components for excavators is strong, with potential for increased order intakes in 4Q26E from a major US construction machinery customer. - **Ball Screw Capacity for Humanoid Robots**: Ball screw production capacity is expected to reach 100k units in the near term and 1mn units within 3-5 years. - **Earnings Forecast Adjustment**: The company's 2026E earnings forecast was trimmed by 3% due to FX losses and lower margin assumptions. - **Target Price**: The target price was revised to RMB132.00 from RMB125.00, based on a 42x 2027E P/E multiple, which is 1SD above the historical average, reflecting growth potential in both hydraulic and precision industries. - **Market Position**: Hengli remains a key pick in the analyst's universe. ## Financial Highlights ### Revenue Growth | Year | Revenue (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | |------|------------------|----------------| | FY24A | 9,390 | 4.5 | | FY25A | 10,941 | 16.5 | | FY26E | 13,600 | 24.3 | | FY27E | 16,409 | 20.6 | | FY28E | 19,169 | 16.8 | ### Adjusted Net Profit | Year | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | |------|------------------------------|----------------| | FY24A | 2,734.0 | - | | FY25A | 2,734.0 | - | | FY26E | 3,382.7 | 23.7 | | FY27E | 4,208.8 | 24.4 | | FY28E | 4,938.2 | 17.2 | ### Earnings Per Share (EPS) | Year | EPS (Reported) (RMB) | YoY Growth (%) | |------|----------------------|----------------| | FY24A | 2.04 | - | | FY25A | 2.52 | 23.7 | | FY26E | 3.14 | 24.4 | | FY27E | 3.68 | 17.2 | ### Valuation Metrics | Year | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | Dividend Yield (%) | |------|--------|--------|--------------------| | FY24A | 56.2 | 8.9 | 0.7 | | FY25A | 51.5 | 8.2 | 0.8 | | FY26E | 41.7 | 7.2 | 1.0 | | FY27E | 33.5 | 6.3 | 1.3 | | FY28E | 28.6 | 5.6 | 1.5 | ## Business Segments ### Hydraulic Cylinder - **Revenue**: Expected to grow from RMB6,569mn in 2026E to RMB8,520mn in 2028E. - **Growth Rate**: 24.4% in 2026E, 17.9% in 2027E, and 10.0% in 2028E. - **Gross Margin**: Expected to decrease slightly to 40.9% in 2026E, then increase to 41.0% in 2027E and 41.2% in 2028E. ### Hydraulic Pump and Valve - **Revenue**: Expected to remain stable, with no significant growth. - **Gross Margin**: Expected to remain around 49.0% for the forecast period. ### Hydraulic System - **Revenue**: Expected to grow from RMB463mn in 2026E to RMB600mn in 2028E. - **Growth Rate**: 20.0% in 2026E, 18.0% in 2027E, and 10.0% in 2028E. - **Gross Margin**: Expected to increase slightly to 34.5% in 2026E and 35.0% in 2028E. ### Component - **Revenue**: Expected to grow from RMB1,070mn in 2026E to RMB2,738mn in 2028E. - **Growth Rate**: 20.0% in 2026E, 60.0% in 2027E, and 60.0% in 2028E. - **Gross Margin**: Expected to increase from 15.8% in 2026E to 23.0% in 2028E. ## Risk Factors - **Demand Slowdown**: Potential slowdown in demand for hydraulic components. - **New Business Development**: Slower-than-expected growth in new business development. ## Analyst Ratings - **BUY**: Indicates a stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Indicates a stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months. - **SELL**: Indicates a stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months. - **OUTPERFORM**: Indicates an industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark. - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Indicates an industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark. - **UNDERPERFORM**: Indicates an industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark. ## Company Overview - **Market Cap**: RMB140,933.6mn. - **Shareholding Structure**: Wang's family holds 64.3% of the shares. - **Share Performance**: - 1-month: -1.6% - 3-months: -10.2% - 6-months: -7.8% ## Analysts - **Wayne FUNG, CFA**: Contact: (852) 3900 0826, Email: waynefung@cmbi.com.hk - **Jake Zhang**: Contact: (852) 3900 0849, Email: jakezhang@cmbi.com.hk ## Disclosures - The report is not tailored for all investors and should not be considered as investment advice. - Past performance does not guarantee future results. - The information is subject to change without notice. - CMBIGM may have conflicts of interest and does not assume responsibility for the report's objectivity. ## Legal Information - **CMB International Global Markets Limited** is a subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited, which is a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank. - The report is intended solely for distribution to major US institutional investors. - In the UK, the report is provided only to certain categories of investors. - In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited, an exempt financial adviser.