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Summary: How Concerned Should We Be About a Job Apocalypse?

Core Content

This report from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research analyzes the potential impact of AI on employment and the broader labor market. It discusses both the risks of job displacement and the opportunities for job creation due to AI-driven technological change. The report emphasizes that while AI could displace a significant number of jobs, it is also expected to create new employment opportunities through various channels.

Main Points

• AI and Job Displacement:
  AI has the potential to automate 25% of all work hours in the US, leading to 6-7% of job displacement over the adoption period. This is based on a 15% AI-driven labor productivity uplift and historical trends linking productivity gains to job loss. The risk of greater displacement exists if AI proves more disruptive than prior technologies.

• Labor Displacement Trends:
  Historical data suggests that technological progress often results in a temporary rise in unemployment. For example, the introduction of the automobile and other technologies initially displaced workers but eventually created new job categories. The report warns that AI adoption could lead to a peak gross unemployment rate increase of 0.6pp, but this is likely to be temporary as long as human labor maintains a competitive edge in certain areas.

• Job Creation Through AI:
  AI is expected to generate new jobs through three primary channels:

  1. Directly creating new occupations such as computer-related roles.
  2. Enabling increased specialization within existing fields, such as healthcare.
  3. Indirectly boosting demand for discretionary services due to economic growth and increased capacity.

• Historical Precedent:
  Over the past 85 years, 60% of workers are employed in occupations that did not exist in 1940. This underscores the role of technological innovation in job creation. The report highlights that 8-9mn jobs have been created in the gig economy, e-commerce, and content creation sectors in the last 30-40 years.

• Unemployment and Transition:
  The transition period for displaced workers may lead to a rise in frictional unemployment, as workers seek new roles. However, the report remains optimistic that AI will not cause permanent unemployment, as job creation will offset job loss over time.

Key Information

• AI Automation Potential: AI could replace 25% of all work hours in the US, with higher exposure in administrative, legal, and computer-related fields.
• Baseline Displacement Estimate: 6-7% of jobs are expected to be displaced during the AI adoption period.
• Unemployment Rate Impact: Under baseline assumptions, the unemployment rate could rise by 0.6pp. However, this may be lower if the Fed intervenes to support the labor market.
• Job Creation Dynamics:
  • New occupations: Over 6mn workers are currently employed in computer-related fields.
  • Specialization: The healthcare sector has seen an increase from 100-200 to over 1000 distinct occupations.
  • Discretionary demand: Sectors like pet care and educational support have seen growth due to increased income and economic capacity.

Conclusion

While AI presents a risk of widespread labor displacement, the report concludes that this is unlikely to be permanent. AI is expected to drive new job creation through direct and indirect mechanisms, and the historical pattern of technological change suggests that job losses in one sector are often offset by gains in another. Therefore, the labor market impact of AI is likely to be transitional, with the potential for long-term economic growth and employment adjustment.

Key Authors

• Joseph Briggs: +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com
• Sarah Dong: +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com
• Jan Hatzius: +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com
• Megan Peters: +44(20)7051-2058 | megan.l.peters@gs.com

Disclaimer

The report is based on public information and does not guarantee accuracy or completeness. Views expressed reflect the personal opinions of the authors and are not influenced by firm business or client relationships. The report is intended for wholesale clients and is subject to regulatory requirements in various jurisdictions.