2025-05-26-Bernstein-英国土地公司（BLND）_英国土地公司_选择英国土地公司（BL）还是兰德斯公司（Landsec）_我们认为两者皆可_16页_715kb

Financial Analysis: British Land and Landsec

Overview

Bernstein Research maintains "Outperform" ratings for both British Land (BLND.LN) and Landsec (LAND.LN) as of May 27, 2025, with price targets of GBp 470.00 and GBp 760.00, respectively. Both companies show strong financial performance and similar growth targets over the next five years, but their portfolios are diverging strategies.

Key Trading

• British Land: Rated Outperform with a GBp 470.00 price target. Trades at an 8.5% 2025e EPS yield, offering a discount to EPRA NTA of 33%. Focuses on retail parks and London campuses, targeting 8-10% total returns.
• Landsec: Rated Outperform with a GBp 760.00 price target. Has a higher 2025e EPS yield of 6.0%, with a 30% discount to EPRA NTA. Aims to rebalance its portfolio toward office, retail, and residential assets by 2030 for a lower-risk profile.

Portfolio Differences

• Landsec: Increasing exposure to residential, retail, and office assets, with a focus on income growth and asset monetization. Recent investments include Bluewater and St David’s Cardiff.
• British Land: Continues to prioritize retail parks and London campuses, driving ERV growth through capital recycling and cost efficiency.

Financial Performance and Guidance

• Both companies have delivered solid ERV growth and strong occupancy rates. Landsec's office portfolio shows stronger ERV growth, while British Land's retail parks outperform.
• Financial metrics are at the top of target ranges (e.g., LTV, Net Debt/EBITDA). Both target 8-10% total returns, with EPS growth of ~6% annually through 2030.
• Estimated 5-year total returns are similar, with Landsec expected to grow EPS by 22% and British Land by 23%.

Valuation and Risks

• Valuation: Both are attractively valued based on earnings growth and a discount to EPRA NTA (30-33%), despite market expectations. Landsec's lower yield reflects higher execution risks with its portfolio shift.
• Risks: British Land faces oversupply in Central London, while Landsec's pivot to residential and retail carries execution risks, with both operating in cyclical real estate markets.

In summary, Bernstein recommends both stocks as attractive investments due to strong earnings growth potential, but prefers Landsec for its lower valuation and diversified strategy.