皮尤-公众如何看到拜登时代的黑人，妇女，男同性恋者和女同性恋者（英文）-2021.2-19页_532kb

Summary of "Public Sees Black People, Women, Gays and Lesbians Gaining Influence in Biden Era"

Core Content

This report by the Pew Research Center, released in February 2021, explores public perceptions of which demographic groups are expected to gain or lose influence in Washington under President Joe Biden's administration. The survey was conducted from January 8 to 12, 2021, and included 5,360 U.S. adults from the Center's American Trends Panel (ATP), a nationally representative online survey panel.

Main Findings

Groups Expected to Gain Influence

• Black people: 65% of U.S. adults expect them to gain influence, with similar views from Black (67%), White (65%), and Hispanic (61%) adults.
• Women: 63% of adults expect women to gain influence.
• Gay and lesbian people: 60% of adults expect them to gain influence.
• Younger people: 54% of adults expect them to gain influence.
• Hispanic people: 53% of adults expect them to gain influence.
• Poor people: 50% of adults expect them to gain influence.
• Unions: 48% of adults expect them to gain influence.

Groups Expected to Lose Influence

• Evangelical Christians: 50% of adults expect them to lose influence, with only 9% expecting them to gain.
• Business corporations: 44% of adults expect them to lose influence.
• The military: 40% of adults expect them to lose influence.
• White people: 38% of adults expect them to lose influence.
• Men: 26% of adults expect them to lose influence.
• Wealthy people: 36% of adults expect them to lose influence.

Groups Expected to Be Unaffected

• Older people: 32% of adults expect them to be unaffected.
• Children: 47% of adults expect them to be unaffected.
• People like yourself: 39% of adults expect no change, while 36% expect a loss of influence and 24% expect a gain.

Key Information

• Partisan Gaps:

  • Democrats are more likely than Republicans to expect groups like Black people, women, and gay and lesbian people to gain influence.
  • Republicans are more divided in their expectations, with a notable exception being gay and lesbian people, where 60% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats expect them to gain influence.
  • Democrats (13%) are less likely than Republicans (48%) to expect wealthy people to gain influence.

• Racial and Ethnic Divides:

  • White adults are more likely to expect White people to lose influence (44%) than Black (23%) or Hispanic (28%) adults.
  • Black and Hispanic adults are more likely to expect other minority groups to gain influence.

• Comparison to Previous Administrations:

  • The public's expectations for Biden's presidency are more aligned with those for Barack Obama's early administration than with Donald Trump's.
  • Many groups that were expected to lose influence under Trump are now seen as potential "winners" under Biden.

Methodology

• The survey was conducted on the American Trends Panel (ATP), a representative panel of U.S. adults.
• The sample was weighted to reflect the U.S. adult population across demographics such as gender, race, education, and partisanship.
• The margin of sampling error for the full sample is ±1.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
• The survey used web-based and SMS methods to collect responses, with 88% response rate from sampled panelists.
• The survey was rigorously tested and data quality checks were performed to identify and remove satisficing responses.

Conclusion

The report highlights a significant shift in public perception regarding influence in Washington under Biden, with a clear trend of minority and progressive groups gaining influence, while evangelical Christians, corporations, and the military are seen as losing influence. These views are shaped by partisan and racial divides, reflecting broader societal changes and political alignments.