> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** 宏观专题 # 宏观经济深度研究 # 生产与生活之间：服务业扩能提质的逻辑 “十五五”规划建议提出实施服务业扩能提质行动，并围绕“生产性服务业向专业化和价值链高端延伸”“生活性服务业高品质、多样化、便利化发展”等方向作出了系统部署。“扩能”强调扩大服务供给的可获得性、覆盖面和承载能力，回应的是内需释放过程中供给接不住的现实问题。“提质”则强调专业化、标准化和附加值提升，避免服务业陷入低端化、同质化扩张。生产性服务业作为企业生产的重要中间投入，是提升产业体系运行效率、增强价值获取能力和推动服务贸易发展的关键环节。当前，中国生产性服务业增加值占GDP比重约 $30\%$ ，低于主要的制造型国家，尤其是高端专业化供给能力有待加强。生活性服务业则直接面向居民终端消费，承担稳就业、稳收入和改善民生的重要功能。近年来，服务在居民消费支出中的占比持续上升，2025年达到 $46.2\%$ ，但供给质量和制度环境仍约束着潜在需求的释放。虽然服务业整体仍处在快速发展阶段，无论是生产性还是生活性服务，结构优化和功能提升的潜力都值得挖掘。但是在实践中，理解生产性和生活性服务业的本质区别，才能找到政策实施精准刺激的关键抓手。总的来看，“十五五”期间生产性和生活性服务业的发展路径将分别对应效率提升与需求释放两条主线，协同驱动服务业实现长远的高质量发展。 生产性服务业：以提质为导向的效率型扩能。生产性服务业是指主要为各类市场主体的生产活动提供服务的部门，涵盖批发业、交通运输和仓储、信息传输与软件、金融、租赁和商务服务、科学研究与技术服务以及生态环保服务等领域<sup>1</sup>。按照这一口径，2025年其增加值占GDP比重约为 $30\%$ 左右。其中，金融业增加值占GDP比重最高，达到 $7.2\%$ ，批发业和信息传输、计算机服务和软件业次之，约占 $5\%^{2}$ 。除了结构上具有重要地位，生产性服务业对经济增长也有着重要贡献。2025年信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业增加值分别同比增长 $11.1\%$ 和 $10.3\%$ ，大幅高于服务业 $5.4\%$ 的整体增速。生产性服务业的服务对象是企业，为企业生产提供重要的中间投入。从“十五五”规划建议看，生产性服务业是服务业扩能提质行动中更具供给侧改革含义的领域，主要从“向专业化和价值链高端延伸”“与先进制造业、现代农业融合发展”“服务业数智化”三个方面展开部署，通过高质量供给提升实体经济的整体运行效率。 2026年2月25日 程实，博士 (852) 2206 8049 shi.cheng@icbc.com.cn 尹学钰，博士 (852) 2683 3864 sherry.yin@icbci.com # 相关研究： 2/12/2026：《美国经济四重风险》 2/9/2026：《结构性货币政策的传导与边界》 2/4/2026：《区间有序、路径难测——混沌演化视角下的人民币汇率再探索》 2/2/2026：《全球生产网络与绕不开的中国——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之三》 1/30/2026：《分位数视角下的美元指数走势》 1/29/2026：《独立性承压下的货币政策路径——2026年1月美联储议息会议点评》 1/26/2026：《以历史主动精神应对混沌演化——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之二》 1/22/2026：《人工智能重塑劳动力市场的理论认知》 1/14/2026:《从银价波动看“变乱交织、动荡加剧”》 1/7/2026：《价值链攀升的中国坐标——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之二》 1/6/2026：《人工智能时代的中国比较优势》 1/5/2026：《如何充分挖掘经济潜能？——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之一》 12/30/2025：《纵横捭阖：全球价值链重构与中国产业体系突破——“经纬之问纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之一》 12/23/2025：《中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向》 12/16/2025：《每一代人都有自己的Labubu——从新需求×新供给看中国消费新格局》 图1：生产性服务业的行业类型及增加值占GDP比重 $(\%)$ 资料来源：iFind及工银国际整理 注：2024—2025年科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业，水利、环境和公共设施管理业，以及批发业增加值占比为估算值。 首先，推动生产性服务业向专业化和价值链高端延伸，是提升价值获取能力的核心路径。生产活动的价值分布通常呈“微笑曲线”，上游研发设计与下游品牌服务价值密度最高，中游制造组装附加值相对有限<sup>3</sup>。中国制造业在中游环节具备绝对的规模优势，并逐步向上游攀升。但是下游生产性服务业增加值占GDP比重仍低于主要制造型国家的水平，且高端生产性服务供给能力相对不足。研发设计、工业软件、工程咨询、品牌营销等环节仍存在专业化程度不够、质量偏低等问题，制约了制造优势向高端价值链的转化。研究表明，制造企业服务业务的年收入增速通常可达 $5\% -10\%$ ，显著高于产品销售约 $2\%$ 的增速，且服务业务的息税前利润往往是制造业务的3—7倍<sup>4</sup>。国际经验显示，西门子（SIEGY.DE）、通用电气（GEV.US）、IBM（IBM.US）、博世等企业已将工业咨询、系统集成与数字化服务打造为独立的价值创造部门，实现制造能力的服务化输出。对中国而言，补齐生产性服务业专业化短板，是提升价值链地位和发展服务贸易的重要基础。 图2：中国生产性服务业增加值占GDP比重低于主要制造型国家 资料来源：国家统计局、世界银行、中国信通院及工银国际测算 注：中国为2025年数据，生产性服务业增加值来自作者测算，其他国家为2024年数据，生产性服务业增加值来自中国信通院测算。 其次，深化生产性服务业与先进制造业、现代农业的融合，是提升全要素生产率（TFP）的重要支撑。作为实体经济的中间投入，生产性服务业并不直接拉动终端需求，而是通过降低系统成本、优化资源配置和强化技术支持，间接提升宏观TFP。分解测算显示，生产性服务业具有较高的技术进步水平和要素集聚能力，其TFP对GDP的贡献率已超过第二产业，也高于生活性服务业<sup>5</sup>。然而，从国际比较看，中国生产性服务业与制造业的融合效率（0.669）明显低于美国（2.862）、德国（3.388）、日本（1.679）等主要制造型国家，与农业（0.355）和其他服务业（0.967）的融合程度亦有提升空间<sup>6</sup>，表明其对制造升级和技术创新的支撑作用尚未充分释放。“十五五”时期，推动服务更深层次嵌入产业链关键环节将成为建设现代化产业体系，尤其是传统产业提质升级的重要抓手。 第三，生产性服务业的数智化转型具有明显的结构优势和现实基础。作为典型的知识密集型行业，生产性服务业高度依赖知识积累、专业判断与信息处理能力，本身就是数据、算法与决策模型密集应用的场景。从数字化基础看，中国第三产业数字经济渗透率已达 $45.63\%$ ，显著高于第一产业（ $10.78\%$ ）和第二产业（ $25.03\%$ ）<sup>7</sup>，说明服务领域在数据化、平台化和线上化方面具备更成熟的应用环境。当前，信息技术服务和金融等生产性服务业已成为率先展开人工智能应用的领域，智能风控、算法决策、工业软件与供应链优化等场景不断拓展。通过数智化改造和模式创新，使服务由辅助性环节向核心能力模块转变，不仅有助于提高服务附加值，也有助于避免低价竞争和重复建设，进一步强化其对产业升级的支撑功能。 生活性服务业：以扩能为抓手的需求型提质。生活性服务业是面向居民最终消费的服务业形态，涵盖零售、住宿餐饮、房地产业、旅游、居民修理与服务、教育、卫生与社会工作、文化体育娱乐等行业<sup>8</sup>。从生产端看，2025年生活性服务业增加值占GDP比重约为 $22\%$ 左右，其中房地产业增加值占比最高（ $5.9\%$ ），零售和教育行业次之。从消费端看，同年服务零售额较上年增长 $5.5\%$ ，高于商品零售额增速1.7个百分点。其中，以新技术、新业态、新模式为支撑的新型消费活力旺盛，旅游游览服务、文化体育服务平台交易额分别同比增长 $25.1\%$ 和 $8.5\%$ 。与生产性服务业侧重效率提升不同，生活性服务业更直接承担稳需求、稳就业和改善民生的功能，是扩大内需和优化消费结构的重要支撑。“十四五”规划建议中“高品质、多样化、便利化发展”“扩大优质消费品和服务供给”“打造消费新场景”等表述说明，政策对生活性服务业的核心关切在于释放被供给约束和被制度壁垒压抑的潜在消费需求。 图3：生活性服务业的行业类型及增加值占GDP比重 $(\%)$ 资料来源：iFind及工银国际整理 注：2024—2025年零售业，居民服务和其他服务业，教育，卫生、社会保障和社会福利业，以及文化、体育和娱乐业增加值占比为估算值。 随着居民收入水平提升和消费重心转移，生活性服务业在扩内需中的地位日益凸显。居民服务消费占比的提升，既源于人类社会发展产生的更高需要，也得到了主要经济体发展规律的验证。马斯洛需求层次理论指出，低层次的生理、安全等需求得到满足之后，人类自然会转向追求高层次的认知、自我实现等需求。近年来，中国的居民消费正逐渐从生存型向发展和享受型升级，而服务消费相对实物消费更能满足发展和享受的需要。2016至2025年，服务性消费占居民人均消费支出的比重从 $41.8\%$ 提升至 $46.2\%$ ，相应地，居民恩格尔系数从 $30.1\%$ 下降至 $29.3\%$ ，居民消费正从商品消费为主向商品和服务消费并重转变。从国际经验看，美国个人消费支出中的服务占比从20世纪60年代的 $46\%$ 左右一路上涨至2007年超过 $65\%$ ，至今稳定在 $65\%$ 以上，2025年约为 $69\%$ 。从政策调控的视角看，在居民收入和耐用品消费增速放缓的背景下，生活性服务消费更具经常性和重复性，更有助于提升边际消费倾向。通过扩大服务覆盖范围、推动连锁化与平台化发展，可以提升服务供给能力，同时通过阶段性补贴和服务消费券等需求端措施，可以降低居民的消费成本。供需协同发力，有助于增强服务消费扩张的持续性。 图4：生活性服务业在美国的就业和消费结构中都很重要 资料来源：美国劳工统计局、FRED及工银国际整理 从就业结构和民生保障的角度看，生活性服务业同样具有不可替代的基础性意义。一方面，其劳动密集特征明显，相较于资本密集型和知识密集型产业，更能够吸纳青年群体和中等技能就业。在制造业自动化程度不断提高的背景下，发展生活性服务业有助于缓冲结构性就业压力，增强居民收入稳定性，从而形成“就业改善—收入稳定—消费扩大”的良性循环。2025年末，美国非农就业人数中约 $40\%$ 来自生活性服务业，多于生产性服务业（ $32\%$ ），零售业就业人数约为批发业的2.5倍，也反映出生活性服务在吸纳就业方面的广泛性。另一方面，提升生活性服务业供给质量，是改善民生水平和推动高质量发展的重要条件。医疗、教育、养老、托育等领域直接关系居民生活质量，其供给水平不仅影响消费意愿，也关系公共服务均等化和社会公平。通过完善行业标准、强化质量监管、推进品牌建设和数字化赋能，推动服务由基础保障型向品质提升型转变，有助于缩小区域与群体差距，增强居民获得感和长期信心。 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其载明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 # 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