2018年-查塔姆研究所_Internationalism_or_Isolationism_The_Chatham_House–YouGov_Survey_50页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Internationalism or Isolationism? – Chatham House–YouGov Survey

Core Content

This report presents the findings of the Chatham House–YouGov survey on British attitudes towards international affairs, conducted in August 2014. It explores whether the UK is moving towards a more isolationist foreign policy or maintaining its traditional internationalist stance, in the context of Brexit, shifting global power dynamics, and domestic political pressures.

Main Views

No Clear Movement Toward Isolationism: Despite concerns about the UK's declining global influence and budgetary constraints, the survey indicates no significant shift towards isolationism. In fact, there is a growing public and opinion-former support for the UK to remain a great power.
Support for Ambitious Foreign Policy: A majority of the public (63%) and opinion-formers (61%) believe the UK should aim to be a great power, the highest support level recorded in the survey's history. This reflects a desire to maintain international influence despite domestic challenges.
Ethical Foreign Policy: The public is evenly split on whether the UK should pursue an ethical foreign policy, with 41% believing ethics should constrain national interests. Opinion-formers are more unified in their support for ethical foreign policy (67%), while the public shows more varied views, with younger voters (18–24 years) more likely to support an ethical approach than older voters.
Priorities and Concerns: The public and opinion-formers have different priorities. The public prioritizes border protection and counterterrorism, while opinion-formers emphasize promoting British business and trade. Both groups identify international terrorism as a major threat to the British way of life.
Development Aid and Responsibility: Public support for development aid is low, with only 30% expressing pride in the UK's aid spending. Many believe the UK should spend less on development aid during economic hardship, indicating a focus on domestic concerns over global responsibilities.
Military and Diplomatic Influence: The public's perception of the armed forces as a key tool of international influence has declined, from 53% in 2011 to 38% in 2014. Opinion-formers show a more pronounced decline, with only 23% seeing the armed forces as a top source of influence.

Key Information

Public and Opinion-Formers Divergence

The public and opinion-formers have divergent views on many foreign policy issues, particularly on European integration and foreign policy priorities.
EU Membership: The public remains broadly negative towards the EU, with 60% supporting a referendum on membership. However, opinion-formers are overwhelmingly in favor of EU membership, with 72% supporting it.
Regional Attitudes: There is a clear regional divide, with London and Scotland more pro-EU than other regions. Scottish respondents are more pro-European, supportive of development aid, and more likely to prioritize ethics in foreign policy.
Political Party Preferences: Support for an ethical foreign policy is highest among Liberal Democrats and Labour, with only one-third of Conservatives and 17% of UKIP voters endorsing it.

UK's Role in the World

The UK is seen as having a responsibility to maintain international security and lead the global response to climate change, with strong support across the public and opinion-formers.
Traditional Allies: The public holds more favorable views towards Anglophone countries and geographically close European nations, with Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands being the most positively viewed.
Adversaries and Competitors: Russia and Ukraine are viewed most unfavourably, with a significant rise in negative sentiment towards Russia following its actions in Ukraine. Israel also saw a sharp increase in unfavourable views due to its military campaign in Gaza.

Challenges for Policy-Makers

The UK remains a mid-sized power with a significant role in multilateral organizations, but faces budgetary and political constraints.
The challenge for the next government is to balance ambition with practicality, and to align foreign policy with public sentiment while maintaining influence on the global stage.

Conclusion

The survey suggests that the UK is not becoming more isolationist, but rather remains committed to an internationalist role, albeit with caution and divergence in how that role should be pursued. There is a lack of consensus on whether the UK should prioritize ethics or national interests, and public and opinion-former views on key foreign policy issues are often at odds. The UK's relationship with the EU is a central point of contention, with the public more skeptical than opinion-formers, and regional and political divides evident in attitudes towards European integration and global responsibilities.

Annex Notes

Methodology is detailed in Annex 1, which outlines the survey's design and data collection process.
Full List of Survey Questions is provided in Annex 2, offering insight into the specific issues probed in the survey.