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Summary of New Growth Drivers for Low-Income Countries: The Role of BRICs

Core Content

This document explores the growing economic ties between Low-Income Countries (LICs) and the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), emphasizing how these relationships are reshaping LICs' international economic engagement. While industrial countries remain dominant development partners, the rapid expansion of trade and financial flows from BRICs has positioned them as new growth drivers for LICs. The study highlights the benefits and challenges associated with these evolving relationships, particularly in trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and development financing.

Main Points

1. Trade Linkages

• Evolving Trade Patterns:

  • Bilateral trade between LICs and BRICs has grown significantly, with total LIC exports to BRICs increasing by nearly 25% annually from 2000 to 2009, reaching $61 billion by 2009.
  • Total trade with BRICs reached close to $170 billion during the same period.
  • BRICs now account for about 20% of total LIC exports, up from 12.5% in 2000 and 7.5% in 1995.
  • LICs' trade with BRICs is more intensive than with the rest of the world, with a trade intensity index of 1.7 (2005–08 average), and even higher for fuel exporters (2.4).

• Trade Composition:

  • LIC exports to BRICs are dominated by primary commodities such as fuel, ores, and metals, except for Russia.
  • Imports from BRICs are largely manufactured goods, with China being the largest source, especially in machinery and transport equipment.
  • Trade complementarity between LICs and BRICs, particularly China and India, is higher than with the United States or the European Union.

• Policy Implications:

  • Trade with BRICs has had a significant positive impact on LICs' overall trade performance.
  • The potential for further growth lies in reducing trade barriers, lowering tariff escalation, and extending preferential access for LIC exports.
  • There is a risk of LICs becoming trapped in a commodity trap, which could hinder long-term growth.
  • Policies should focus on enhancing domestic productive capacity rather than restricting exports or erecting import barriers.

2. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• BRIC FDI in LICs:

  • BRIC FDI flows to LICs have grown rapidly, starting from a low base.
  • Initial investments were often made by state-owned enterprises in natural resource sectors.
  • Over time, FDI has expanded into agriculture, manufacturing, and services (e.g., telecommunications).
  • Private sector involvement, especially from SMEs in BRICs, has also increased, contributing to industrial clusters in some LICs, notably in East Asia.

• Chinese FDI in LICs and SSA:

  • China has become a major source of FDI for LICs, with significant flows to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
  • Chinese FDI is concentrated in natural resources, with a growing presence in infrastructure and industry.
  • Despite the potential benefits, challenges include ensuring that FDI enhances local firms' global links and contributes to domestic resource mobilization.

• Policy Considerations:

  • FDI should be used to improve productivity and support domestic industries.
  • Policies must encourage joint ventures, local employment, and skill development.
  • Long-term skill supply is critical, and local content requirements should be temporary.
  • FDI-driven projects, especially in resource extraction, should contribute to domestic revenue and public spending.
  • Careful fiscal planning is needed to manage the costs of FDI incentives and ensure debt sustainability.

3. Development Financing

• BRIC Development Financing:

  • BRICs have provided significant development financing to LICs, particularly in infrastructure.
  • This financing is now comparable to that from OECD DAC members, with expected contributions to electricity generation and transportation infrastructure.
  • BRIC financing often includes mixed packages (grants, FDI, and loans) that can generate synergies and help overcome inter-temporal financing constraints.

• Policy Implications:

  • BRIC financing should target high-return projects.
  • Debt sustainability must be carefully assessed, considering the growth effects of projects.
  • Transparent information on financing terms and amounts is essential for effective policy planning.
  • Strengthening governance and institutional capacity in LICs is crucial to maximize the benefits of BRIC financing.

4. Growth Spillovers

• Channels of Spillovers:

  • BRICs have contributed to LIC growth through trade, productivity gains, and FDI.
  • Trade spillovers are the most powerful, especially in Asian and African LICs.
  • Commodity price increases due to BRIC demand have improved LICs' terms of trade.
  • Indirect spillovers from BRICs' productivity innovations and import demand have also positively impacted global commodity markets.

• Impact of Global Rebalancing:

  • BRICs, particularly China, are expected to have a long-term impact on LICs by shifting global production and trade toward labor-intensive manufacturing.
  • This shift could provide LICs with greater opportunities to expand their manufacturing and export capabilities.
  • However, LICs need to prepare for this transition by improving infrastructure, skills, and investment climates.

Key Information

• BRICs' Economic Significance:

  • BRICs have become the largest trading partners for LICs, accounting for 60% of their trade with other emerging market economies (EMEs) in 2009.
  • Their GDP share in the world economy has grown from 5.8% in 2000–04 to 21.6% in 2015.
  • BRICs' share of global exports and imports has also increased significantly over the years.

• Data Limitations:

  • There are considerable data weaknesses, especially regarding FDI and development financing.
  • Data on BRIC financing is limited, with only partial information on Russia and Brazil.
  • For Chinese FDI, data is supplemented from multiple sources, including the Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Enhance the investment climate and promote private sector participation.
  • Focus on skill development and long-term competitiveness.
  • Use BRIC financing for high-return public investment while ensuring debt sustainability.
  • Strengthen governance and institutional capacity in LICs to better manage BRIC-related opportunities and risks.

Conclusion

The rise of BRICs has introduced new growth opportunities for LICs, particularly through trade and FDI. However, these relationships also pose challenges, including the risk of over-reliance on commodity exports and the need for careful management of debt and fiscal risks. To fully benefit from BRICs, LICs must focus on enhancing domestic productive capacity, improving infrastructure, and fostering a conducive investment environment. The study underscores the importance of policy coherence and transparency in leveraging BRICs' economic influence for sustainable development.