> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** ```markdown # IntraFi Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey Report - Q1 2026 ## Core Content Overview This report presents the findings of IntraFi's Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey for Q1 2026, based on responses from 409 U.S. banks. The survey covers key concerns such as economic downturns, cybersecurity and fraud risks, staffing changes, and the potential impact of regulatory changes like the proposed Basel III updates. It also explores the future outlook for deposit competition, funding costs, loan demand, and access to capital. ## Main Findings ### 1. **Top Concerns for Bankers** - **Economic Downturn**: 56% of bankers listed an economic downturn as their first or second biggest worry. - **Cybersecurity and Fraud Risk**: 54% of respondents identified this as their top concern, citing AI's role in making fraud detection more challenging. - **Fed Leadership and Monetary Policy**: 17% of bankers ranked changes in Fed leadership or monetary policy as a major concern. - **Geopolitical Instability**: 16% of bankers listed this as a concern. - **AI Adoption**: 9% of respondents ranked AI as a concern. - **Stablecoins and Digital Assets**: 7% of bankers expressed concern about these. ### 2. **Staffing Trends Since 2023** - **Job Cuts**: Only 13% of banks reported cutting staff, while 47% said no change and 39% reported hiring more staff. - **Reasons for Staff Reduction**: - Improve efficiency/reduce costs (58%) - Change in strategy/direction (18%) - Elimination of redundant roles (11%) - Lower revenue/weaker business conditions (7%) - Automated/increased use of technology (4%) - Competitive pressures (2%) ### 3. **Departments Trimmed** - **Administration/Operations**: 56% of banks with cuts reduced staff in this area. - **Customer-Facing Branch Staff**: 45% of banks with cuts reduced this department. - **Lending/Credit**: 40% of banks with cuts reduced lending/credit personnel. - **IT/Technology, Marketing, Sales/Business Development, Risk/Compliance/Legal**: These areas saw smaller reductions. ### 4. **AI Impact on Staffing** - **Expectation for AI Impact**: 70% of bankers expect AI to have little impact on staffing levels over the next three years. - **Job Cuts from AI**: Only 27% of bankers believe AI will lead to job cuts, while 70% think it will not be a significant factor. ### 5. **Mortgage Lending and Basel III Changes** - **Interest in Mortgage Activities**: 21% of respondents said they are more interested in expanding mortgage lending/servicing due to proposed Basel III changes, while 79% said there is no meaningful change. - **Reasons for Caution**: Bankers may be waiting for additional regulatory changes, such as those related to private mortgage insurance, before increasing mortgage activities. ### 6. **Deposit Competition** - **Expectation**: 97% of bankers expect deposit competition to increase or remain at current, high levels. - **Experience**: 48% of banks reported increased competition over the past year, a 17-point increase from the previous year. ### 7. **Funding Costs** - **Experience**: 66% of bankers reported improved funding costs over the past year. - **Expectation**: Only 31% expect this trend to continue, indicating a significant drop in optimism. ### 8. **Loan Demand** - **Experience**: 43% of bankers reported improved loan demand over the past year, while 57% saw a decline or no change. - **Expectation**: 47% of bankers expect loan demand to improve over the next year, a drop from a 5-year high of 56%. ### 9. **Access to Capital** - **Expectation**: 95% of banks expect no change or improved access to capital in the next 12 months. - **Experience**: 76% of banks reported stable access to capital over the past year. ### 10. **Overall Economic Conditions** - **Experience**: 24% of bankers reported improved economic conditions over the past year, while 27% saw them worsen. - **Expectation**: 21% of bankers expect economic conditions to improve in the next year, a significant drop from the previous quarter. ## Key Insights - **Economic Outlook**: Pessimism about the economy has returned to levels similar to Q1 2025, with a 17-point decline in the percentage of bankers expecting improvement. - **Cybersecurity Concerns**: AI is seen as a major driver of increased fraud risk, but its impact on job cuts is not as feared as some experts suggest. - **Staffing Stability**: Despite overall job cuts in the sector, the majority of banks have not reduced staff and some have increased hiring. - **Regulatory Uncertainty**: Basel III changes have not significantly boosted interest in mortgage activities, likely due to uncertainty about broader regulatory changes. - **Regional Variations**: Banks in the West showed more optimism about improved access to capital compared to other regions. ## Methodology - **Survey Period**: April 1 to April 15, 2026. - **Respondents**: 409 bank executives (CEOs, presidents, CFOs, COOs). - **Data Collection**: Online survey conducted via email. - **Indices**: - **Bank Experience Index**: Dropped 2 points to 54.3. - **Bank Confidence Index**: Fell 4 points to 52.8. - Both indices are calculated using a composite of four factors: access to capital, loan demand, funding costs, and deposit competition. ## Conclusion Bankers remain cautious about the future, with economic downturns and cybersecurity/fraud risks being the top concerns. While there are concerns about AI and its potential impact on the sector, most bankers do not expect it to be a major driver of job cuts in the short term. Staffing levels have remained relatively stable, with most banks maintaining or increasing their workforce. The proposed Basel III changes have not yet significantly influenced banks' interest in expanding mortgage lending, and regional differences in access to capital and economic outlook are notable. ```