2007年-ECB欧洲央行_Revaluation_of_the_Slovak_koruna_within_ERM_II_2页_264kb

Box 7: REVALUATION OF THE SLOVAK KORUNA WITHIN ERM II

核心内容

Slovak koruna (SKK) joined ERM II on 28 November 2005 with an initial central rate of SKK/EUR 38.4550. Since then, it has generally traded on the stronger side of the central rate, but experienced temporary downward pressure in the second quarter of 2006. This was followed by a prolonged period of appreciation, which intensified in February and the first half of March 2007. To manage exchange rate volatility and market pressures, the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) has intervened in foreign exchange markets.

On 16 March 2007, the Slovak authorities requested a revaluation of the central rate of the koruna. Following a consultation process involving the European Commission and the Economic and Financial Committee, the euro area finance ministers, the President of the ECB, and the finance ministers and central bank governors of Denmark, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, and Slovakia agreed to adjust the central rate. The koruna's central rate was revalued by 8.5%, increasing to SKK 35.4424 per euro. The standard fluctuation band of ±15% continues to apply around the new central rate.

主要观点

• Exchange Rate Dynamics: The koruna initially appreciated after joining ERM II, but faced temporary downward pressure in early 2006. It then experienced a significant appreciation phase in early 2007.
• Revaluation Decision: The revaluation of the central rate was a mutual agreement to reflect underlying macroeconomic fundamentals and support Slovakia's macroeconomic stability.
• Intervention Rates: New compulsory intervention rates were set for the koruna from 19 March 2007. These rates are designed to control exchange rate fluctuations.
• Fluctuation Band: For the Danish krone, a narrower fluctuation band of ±2.25% was introduced, while the standard ±15% band remains for the koruna and other currencies.
• Policy Commitment: The revaluation is supported by Slovakia's commitment to maintaining macroeconomic stability, including fiscal adjustments, wage developments aligned with productivity, and structural reforms to improve market efficiency and competitiveness.
• Monitoring Mechanism: The Slovak authorities, along with EU institutions, will closely monitor macroeconomic and exchange rate developments to ensure the sustainability of the convergence process.

关键信息

• Joining ERM II: 28 November 2005 with an initial central rate of SKK/EUR 38.4550.
• Revaluation Date: 16 March 2007, with the new central rate set at SKK 35.4424 per euro.
• Fluctuation Band: ±15% for the koruna and other currencies, except for the Danish krone which has a ±2.25% band.
• Compulsory Intervention Rates: Effective from 19 March 2007, these rates are listed in Table A.
• Macroeconomic Fundamentals: The revaluation is justified by strong economic performance and a favorable outlook.
• Policy Measures: Include fiscal consolidation, wage developments aligned with productivity, and structural reforms to enhance economic resilience and competitiveness.
• Economic Indicators (Table B):
  • Real Economic Growth: 4.6% (2001-2005), 8.3% (2006).
  • HICP Inflation: 5.9% (2001-2005), 4.3% (2006).
  • Current Account Balance: -5.4% (2001-2005), -7.8% (2006) of GDP.
  • Fiscal Deficit: -4.8% (2001-2005), -3.4% (2006) of GDP.
  • Government Debt: 42.2% (2001-2005), 33.0% (2006) of GDP.
  • Interest Rates: Long-term interest rate decreased from 5.7% to 4.4%, and short-term interest rate from 5.9% to 4.3%.
  • Exchange Rate Against the Euro: Decreased from 41.2 to 37.2 (annual average).

总结

The revaluation of the Slovak koruna within ERM II was a strategic decision aimed at aligning the currency with underlying economic fundamentals and supporting macroeconomic stability. It was based on a favorable economic outlook and the commitment of Slovak authorities to maintain price stability and competitiveness. The new central rate of SKK 35.4424 per euro reflects this revaluation, with the standard fluctuation band of ±15% still in place. The Slovak National Bank has intervened in foreign exchange markets to manage volatility, and the decision was reached through a collaborative process involving the ECB and other EU institutions. The revaluation is expected to contribute to a balanced policy mix and the sustainability of Slovakia's convergence to the euro.