> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观专题 # 宏观经济深度研究 # 以历史主动精神应对混沌演化 # ——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之二 当前，随着“大国博弈更加复杂激烈”，全球经济系统的运行方式随之呈现更强的非线性、双向性与高敏感性，经济金融环境进入混沌演化的阶段。混沌并非无序，其特征在于有规律但不可预测，并在临界区间同时孕育着风险与机遇。正如“十五五”规划建议所强调，要“积极识变应变求变，敢于斗争、善于斗争，勇于面对风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验，以历史主动精神克难关、战风险、迎挑战”。在这一框架下，全球增长底线仍具韧性，第四次科技革命与产业变革的加速推进为经济提供了上行弹性。同时，关税摩擦与地缘冲突所形成的混乱稳态、不确定性的高位固化以及安全约束的持续强化，使市场运行区间的上下限同步扩张。资产层面，风险偏好在科技创新与降息周期支撑下保持进取，避险需求也因尾部风险常态化而持续存在，形成风险资产回报与避险资产回报并行、在不确定性中踏刃而起的资产格局。 主导变量的历史切换：从秩序红利到博弈约束。“十五五”规划建议对于当前全球环境的判断是“大国博弈更加复杂激烈”。大国博弈通过多重渠道影响资源配置与预期形成，使经济系统的运行逻辑发生变化，传统线性分析框架的解释力下降，混沌演化逐渐成为刻画当前经济金融环境的重要特征。 回顾历史，不同的主导变量往往决定了经济运行的基本形态。例如，在20世纪90年代至2010年代初期，全球经济的主导变量主要体现为全球化扩展与技术扩散。这一阶段，低通胀、低利率与相对较高的确定性构成了宏观环境的基本特征，经济波动更多表现为周期起伏，结构性断裂相对有限。进入2018年以来，主导变量逐步发生转向，贸易、科技、能源、金融与货币体系的运行逻辑日益嵌入地缘博弈之中，过去以比较优势为导向的扩展路径受到多重约束，并开始在宏观数据层面得到体现。 首先，全球贸易弹性呈现下行趋势。自20世纪末至本世纪初，全球贸易对GDP的增长弹性维持在较高水平，贸易扩张显著快于经济增长。2008年金融危机之后，这一弹性水平回落并降至1以下。其含义在于，全球GDP每增加1个百分点，所带动的贸易扩张幅度明显收敛，贸易对经济增长的放大效应减弱。在这一背景下，贸易运行方式发生转变，所反映的不仅是需求变化，也越来越多地体现出产业链重构与博弈因素的共同作用。 其次，国家安全维度对资源配置的约束明显增强。与贸易弹性回落相伴的是安全逻辑在宏观资源配置中的权重持续上升。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所数据显示，全球军费开支已连续第十年增长，2024年达到2.72万亿美元，同比增幅 $9.4\%$ ，创冷战结束以来的最高水平。这一趋势表明，国家安全考量正系统性地嵌入财政支出、产业布局与技术投资决策之中，对资本流向与要素配置形成持续影响，全球经济运行框架随之发生变化。 再次，全球不确定性由阶段性波动演化为结构性常态。IMF编制的全球不确定性指数（World Uncertainty Index）自2018年后运行中枢明显抬升，重大冲击后回落有限。2025年以来，不确定性在高位基础上进一步上移并持续存在，逐步固化为全球宏观环境的重要背景变量。 2026年1月26日 程实，博士 (852) 2206 8049 shi.cheng@icbc.com.cn 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.com # 相关研究： 1/22/2026：《人工智能重塑劳动力市场的理论认知》 1/14/2026：《从银价波动看“变乱交织、动荡加剧”》 1/7/2026：《价值链攀升的中国坐标——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之二》 1/6/2026：《人工智能时代的中国比较优势》 1/5/2026：《如何充分挖掘经济潜能？——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之一》 12/30/2025：《纵横捭阖：全球价值链重构与中国产业体系突破——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之一》 12/23/2025：《中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向》 12/16/2025：《每一代人都有自己的Labubu——从新需求×新供给看中国消费新格局》 12/12/2025：《格物致知，成势在人——投资于物和投资于人的时代逻辑》 12/11/2025：《利率下行，风险上行——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评》 12/5/2025：《人工智能浪潮中的真实与泡影》 11/24/2025：《在临界中博弈路径——2026年全球大类资产展望》 11/21/2025：《在交汇中重塑平衡——2026年香港经济展望》 11/20/2025：《在变化中破局开新——2026年中国经济展望》 11/17/2025：《在混沌中构建秩序——2026年全球经济展望》 10/30/2025：《加速降息进行时——2025年10月美联储议息会议点评》 图1：全球贸易弹性下降 资料来源：Wind、工银国际整理(X轴、Y轴分别为取对数后的全球经济量与商品贸易量。) 图2：全球不确定性指数 资料来源：IMF、工银国际整理 临界混沌下的资产共振：从此消彼长到踏刃而起。临界混沌的双向性意味着，不再是单一资产风格占优，也就是说风险资产与避险资产同时具备获得正回报的结构性基础。由于经济增长机制仍在运转，但尾部风险却始终存在，资产价格对不同维度的信号高度敏感，且反应并不同步。正因如此，临界混沌的双向性将同时放大上行、下行风险的定价空间。 首先，风险资产仍具备高回报基础。在临界混沌区间内，宏观不确定性上升，但并不必然意味着增长动能枯竭。进一步看，资本市场对宏观经济的反应，并不取决于增长速度本身，而更多反映增长质量的变化，即对生产率提升、盈利结构改善与资本回报效率的前瞻定价。例如，在2020—2025年间，尽管全球GDP增速整体维持在 $3\%$ 左右的低斜率区间，MSCI全球指数及主要市场指数却多次录得显著高于经济增速的年度回报，显示资本市场对技术进步、产业重构与长期盈利能力改善保持高度敏感。 其次，避险资产并未失效，反而持续具备配置价值。与风险资产并行的，是避险资产回报逻辑的结构性延续。在混沌阶段，系统对极端情形高度敏感，任何局部扰动都可能被迅速放大。这决定了风险对冲需求不会消失，只会常态化存在。黄金的表现正是这一特征的集中体现。基于我们时变系数模型结果，在不 确定性上行阶段，黄金的对冲属性仍然显著，只是表现形式由单一因子驱动转向多重风险叠加下的非线性定价。也就是说，当前黄金运行主要由多重力量的拉扯所决定，上行与下行因素并存，但尚未形成新的均衡。这意味着，在临界混沌阶段，博弈风险未完成出清前，避险资产或不会退出定价体系。 最后，资产配置逻辑从“此消彼长”到“踏刃而起”。在混沌演化的背景下，风险资产反映的是对结构性演化方向的押注，避险资产反映的是对路径不确定性与尾部风险的定价。这正是临界混沌的双向性与敏感性在资产层面的映射。由此，以线性周期思维理解一个非线性系统并进行配置的方式已经不再适用。 图3：经济增速与资本市场回报（%） 资料来源：Wind、工银国际整理 以历史主动精神破局混沌。面对风高浪急、惊涛骇浪的外部环境，主动应变与前瞻选择的价值，体现在对主导变量变化的持续跟踪与顺势而为之中。 历史经验表明，确定性往往并不会自行显现。在混沌阶段，经济系统呈现出高度非线性特征，既存在内在规律，又伴随显著的不可预测性。在这样的环境下，配置逻辑难以固化为静态最优解，更需要根据主导力量的迁移进行动态校准。长期回报的形成，取决于是否顺应结构性演化方向，而非对短期噪音作出过度反应。 从现实数据看，这一趋势已逐步显现。当前，全球资本开支中与科技和能源相关的投资比重持续抬升，资源配置加快向技术重构与安全约束集中的方向演进。在宏观波动加大的背景下，权益资产的长期复利特征并未削弱，反而在行业与结构分化中更加突出，反映风险偏好并未消退，而是对方向判断提出了更高要求。 由此看，历史主动精神体现在对历史规律的理解、对时代潮流的顺应，以及对自身位置的清醒认知。在临界混沌阶段，资产回报往往呈现多路径并存的状态，风险资产与避险资产在不同情景下同时具备回报基础。理解这种并行定价的特征，有助于从被动防御转向更具前瞻性的主动配置，踏刃而起，在不确定性中形成更具韧性的决策框架。 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其裁明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 # UK This communication is sent on behalf of ICBC International Securities Limited, being a subsidiary of ICBC International Holdings Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Hong Kong (collectively with other subsidiaries of ICBC International Holdings Limited, the "ICBCI Group"). Members of the ICBCI Group are not authorised or regulated by the FCA or the PRA. The communication of this research document by the ICBCI Group is exempt from the general restriction in section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, which prohibits the communication of an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity, on the grounds that the communication of this document is directed at, and the services and activities described herein are available only to, the following persons in the United Kingdom, namely (i) persons falling within any of the categories of "Investment Professionals" as defined in article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "Financial Promotion Order"), (ii) persons falling within any of the categories of persons described in article 49(2) of the Financial Promotion Order, and (iii) any person to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made. Persons not falling under the indicated recipients are strictly prohibited from acting upon this document. Members of the ICBCI Group are able to conduct certain business for UK clients on a cross-border basis in reliance on certain exclusions to authorisation requirements. As a result of ICBCI Group's unauthorised status, UK clients of ICBCI Group will not benefit from the protections and rights afforded to clients of firms that are authorised in the UK, including but not limited to the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, Financial Ombudsman Service and protections afforded under the FCA's and PRA's rules and requirements. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this research. # Singapore NOTE: For Singapore, research reports may only be provided to investors who have been confirmed and verified as institutional investors (within the definition of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289)). The analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation in all or in part of the research report contained hereby certified that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of such analyst(s) about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst(s)' compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed in this research report. The information herein is prepared and published by ICBC International Securities Limited. This research report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publishing, provision or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject ICBC International Securities Limited, its group members and/or its affiliates (collectively, "ICBCI" or "we") to any registration or licensing requirement in such jurisdiction which we do not hold the relevant registration or licence. This research report shall not be of itself considered as an offer or invitation to buy or sell any securities described herein. This research report is (i) for your private information; (ii) not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be illegal; and (iii) based upon information from sources that we consider reliable, but has not been independently verified by ICBCI. This research report provides general information only. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. In preparing this research report, ICBCI has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this research report are suitable for any particular investor. You shall make your own decision with respect to all transactions involving securities referred to in this research report and assess whether each transaction is suitable for you in light of your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives. This research report may contain information obtained from third parties, including ratings from credit ratings agencies and the distribution of third party content in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the related third party. Third party content providers do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information, including ratings, and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such content. Third party content providers give no express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability of fitness for a particular purpose or use. Third party content providers shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of their content, including ratings. Credit ratings are statements of opinions and are not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold or sell securities. They do not address the suitability of securities or the suitability of securities for investment purposes, and should not be relied on as investment advice of the third party content providers. Figures presented herein may refer to past performance or simulations based on past performance which are not reliable indicators of future performance. Where the information contains an indication of future performance, such forecasts may not be reliable indicator of future performance. Moreover, simulations are based on models and simplifying assumptions which may oversimplify and not reflect the future distribution of returns. The facts described in this research report, as well as the views, estimates, forecasts and projections expressed in it are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to and unless otherwise agreed by ICBCI no reliance should be placed on information contained in this research report. ICBCI accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages arising from or in connection with the use or reliance of this research report or its contents to the extent that it is not inconsistent with the obligations applicable to ICBCI that it may otherwise be subject to under the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission as may be amended, varied or replaced from time to time. This research report is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon as personal professional advice (including without limitation, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations) and is not to be taken in substitution for your exercise of judgment. Unless otherwise agreed by ICBCI, ICBCI does not act as your adviser and assumes no fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise. Investors shall consider whether any information or views in this research report is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The report should not be viewed as identifying or suggesting all risks, direct or indirect, that may be associated with any investment decision. ICBCI produces a number of different types of research products including, among others, fundamental analysis, quantitative analysis and short term trading ideas; views contained in one type of research product may differ from views contained in other types of research product, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies or otherwise. The compensation of analysts who prepared this research report is determined solely by the management of research department and senior management of ICBCI. Analysts' compensation is not decided based on revenue of ICBCI's corporate finance business but may be linked with overall revenue of its corporate finance business as a whole, of which corporate finance, sales and trading are a part. If this research report is distributed by a financial institution or an entity, including without limitation any information provider, other than ICBCI, that financial institution or entity is solely responsible for its distribution. Clients of the distributing financial institution should contact that institution if they decide to effect a transaction in the relevant securities. Clients of the distributing financial institution or entity should also contact such institution or entity directly if they require further information on the securities mentioned in this research report. This research report does not constitute investment advice by ICBCI to the clients of the distributing financial institution or entity (who are not clients of ICBCI), and neither ICBCI nor its respective officers, directors and employees will accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from their use of this research report or its content. ICBCI manages conflicts with respect to the production of research through its compliance policies and procedures (including, but not limited to, Conflicts of Interest, Chinese Wall and Confidentiality policies) as well as through the maintenance of Chinese walls and employee training. If you are a recipient of this report in Singapore, you have only been provided with this report on the basis that you are and you have represented and confirmed that you are an institutional investor as defined under the Singapore Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289) and its attendant regulations as may be amended from time to time ("Institutional Investor"). You acknowledge that ICBCI may request for additional supporting documentation and information in order to verify your status as an Institutional Investor prior to providing you with such report and before continuing to provide you with any further reports or any other services and you agree to provide such documentation and information on a timely basis. If you are not an Institutional Investor or there has been a change in your status such that you are no longer an Institutional Investor, please inform ICBCI immediately. THIS RESEARCH REPORT HAS BEEN FURNISHED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED ANY PART OF THIS RESEARCH REPORT IN ANY MANNER TO ANY OTHER PERSON WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF ICBCI. # Malaysia This document is provided to you only at your request, and is not an offer, invitation or agreement by ICBC International Securities Limited and/or group members under ICBC International Holdings Limited (collectively "ICBCI group") to enter into any transaction with you on its or any other terms. ICBC International Securities Limited is not licensed by or registered with Securities Commission Malaysia to carry on business in any regulated activity under the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007. ICBCI group is not able to and does not provide advice or services that constitute regulated activity in Malaysia, except in the circumstances permitted by Securities Commission Malaysia for unlicensed foreign capital market intermediaries. ICBCI group is not able to and does not conduct banking business or investment banking business in Malaysia or provide advice or services in Malaysia that constitute banking business or investment banking in Malaysia. Although the document is prepared by ICBC International Securities Limited, the document is being distributed by the Malaysian licensed partner pursuant to an arrangement entered into with such partner. Should you need advice or a service that is banking business or investment banking business in Malaysia you need to seek the assistance of an appropriately licensed person. Receipt of this research report constitutes your acknowledgement and agreement to the above terms. Copyright 2026 ICBC International Securities Limited. All rights reserved.