世界银行-空气污染减少经济活动：来自印度的证据（英）-2023.6-37页_1mb

This paper investigates the impact of air pollution on economic activity using district-level GDP data from India (1998-2020). Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is linked to health issues and reduced productivity, which may negatively affect economic growth. Using an instrumental variables approach with temperature inversions as the instrument, the study finds that a 1 µg/m³ increase in annual average PM2.5 pollution reduces year-to-year changes in district GDP by 0.7 percentage points. This effect is comparable to studies in Europe and the U.S., despite India's higher pollution levels (average PM2.5: ~50 µg/m³). Air pollution impacts GDP through reduced labor productivity, worker absenteeism, and lower agricultural output.

The findings suggest air pollution imposes substantial economic costs, with estimated impacts ranging from 0.37 to 0.41 standard deviations per unit change. High pollution levels constrain economic activity, and structural changes reducing pollution could positively influence GDP. However, extrapolating these results to other regions is limited due to India's unique pollution levels. The paper recommends further research on adaptation and long-term effects.