2025-06-10-Bernstein-索纳-布鲁精密锻造有限公司（SONACOMS）_索纳BLW_电动汽车风险增加_评级下调至与市场表现一致_19页_722kb

Summary of Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd Analysis

• Rating Change: Downgraded from Outperform to Market-Perform due to increased near-term risks, with price target revised from Rs 550 to Rs 540.

• Key Risks:

  • Slower US EV growth and policy changes, including subsidy phase-outs and relaxed emissions standards.
  • Tesla losing market share and Sona's high EV order exposure.
  • China's rare earth export restrictions impacting EV production in India.
  • Potential delays in OEM investments leading to reduced execution.

• Positive Outlook:

  • Long-term strengths in innovation, market share gains, and expansion into new segments like e-motors and robotics.
  • Fair valuation based on 3-year average PE, though near-term upside is limited.

• Financial Highlights:

  • Current price: Rs 521.35, traded at 42x forward PE.
  • Revenue and EBITDA estimates slightly revised down, with long-term growth assumed at 16-17% CAGR.
  • Recommendation: Maintain a neutral stance due to risks favoring a wait-and-see approach.