2025-06-05-Jefferies-亨利·谢恩（HSIC）_心境帝国_稳定的市场；2025财年下半年权重较大；2026年低风险部门每股收益增长_7页_104kb

Equity Research Summary: Henry Schein (HSIC)

• Rating and Price Target: Jefferies maintains a HOLD rating with a price target of $78, an increase from the prior closing price of $70.39. This PT represents ~11x Consensus 2025E EBITDA.

• Key Discussions: During an NYC meeting with CEO Stan Bergman and CFO Ron South, management emphasized the BOLD+1 strategy to drive growth in high-growth, high-margin businesses. These businesses, which accounted for ~40% of operating income in 2024, aim to reach 50% by the strategic planning period. Own brands are expected to contribute an additional 10%, driving 60% of operating income from these segments.

• Business Highlights: HSIC plans to enhance revenue and margins through cross-selling across 300+ businesses, digitization for device interoperability, and the rollout of a new Global eCommerce platform in the US and Canada in Q3. The KKR partnership supports the BOLD+1 strategy via cost synergies and purchasing power.

• Market Conditions: Management views global markets as stable overall, with the US dental market showing slight positive visit growth due to dentists' focus on value, favoring HSIC's own brands. Challenges persist in high-end implants due to high interest rates. Other markets vary: EU stable, Australia and New Zealand stabilized, Brazil shows growth despite macro issues, but equipment demand can be lumpy.

• Financial Guidance: HSIC expects 2025 financial results to be weighted toward the second half, with guidance on HSD sales growth and LDD EPS growth in 2026. Factors include mix shifts, product line growth, technology, and restructuring benefits. Restructuring costs up to $100MM by YE2025 will drive 2026 benefits, with KKR and new launches also impacting 2026 performance.

• Additional Factors: HSIC maintains normal M&A activity, having repurchased shares recently and seeing them as attractively priced. Historical M&A has been $300-400MM per year, with opportunistic deals based on strategic fit. Analyst certifications and potential conflicts are noted.

• Valuation and Risks: Current valuation stands at ~11x EBITDA, with risks including competition, dental office utilization trends, potentially ROIC-destructive M&A, cybersecurity threats, and ASP declines in dental equipment. HSIC's focus on high-margin growth aims to mitigate some risks.