2025-05-29-Jefferies-杰富瑞美国消费者动向_是否提前消费_结果都在上升_12页_980kb

US Consumer Pulse Summary

• Sentiment: U.S. consumer sentiment has risen significantly since late April, reaching a new high at 99, driven by improvements in financial and economic conditions. Key recovery groups include middle-aged consumers (Millennials, Gen X), Republicans, and highly educated individuals, while Democrats, Gen Z, Baby Boomers, and the least educated remain lagging.

• Labor Market Concerns: Despite overall sentiment improvement, 44% of consumers anticipate layoffs within three months, up from previous levels, and 41% report wage or hour cuts. This has led to increased savings and home cooking, but spending adjustments have not yet fully materialized.

• Spending Trends: Summer spending is on track, with both staples and discretionary purchases rising seasonally. Discretionary spending shows strong growth, particularly among higher-income cohorts, while low-income consumers exhibit caution. Car buying intentions are climbing due to tariff deadlines, with 28% planning purchases in the next quarter.

• Policy and Demographics: U.S. policy tweaks have most impacted least educated consumers, who report lower optimism. Tariffs are influencing consumer behavior, with increased food-at-home spending and shifts in car shopping.

• Seasonal and Income Variations: Spending patterns revert to seasonal norms, but low-income staples expenditure is tracking higher, suggesting potential defensive behavior. High-income discretionary spending leads, benefiting from tariff-induced urgency in purchases.