2013年-世界发展银行全球_Educational_Attainment_in_Afghanistan___An_Economic_Analysis_28页_713kb

报告摘要

Summary of Report No. 62: Educational Attainment in Afghanistan - An Economic Analysis

Core Content

This report provides an economic analysis of educational attainment in Afghanistan, focusing on the factors influencing school enrollment for both urban and rural populations. It examines the relationship between various socio-economic and cultural variables and the probability of children being enrolled in primary, middle, and high school. The study uses data from the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) 2007/08 survey to evaluate these factors.

Main Findings

Low Enrollment Rates: Afghanistan has low school enrollment rates, particularly in comparison to other conflict-affected regions. The Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) for primary and secondary education is notably low, with boys having higher enrollment rates than girls across all age groups.
Gender Disparities: Gender disparities in enrollment are significant. Girls' enrollment rates are consistently lower than boys', with the gap widening as children age. The gender parity ratio in enrollment and net completion rates shows that boys' enrollment is 1.5 times that of girls at the primary and lower secondary levels, and more than double at the end of the school cycle.
Net Completion Rates: Net completion rates for primary and secondary education are also low. Only 27% of 6-year-old boys complete primary school, while this drops to 6% by age 17. For girls, the rates are even lower, with only 20% of 6-year-olds completing primary school and 2% reaching secondary completion by 17.
Economic Prosperity: The level of economic prosperity in the community, measured by the proportion of bad jobs (casual laborer, self-employment, and family work), is the most significant factor influencing enrollment. This variable has the largest marginal effect across all equations.
Household Characteristics: Household size and per capita consumption expenditure are important. Large households have a lower probability of enrollment, but household expenditure is not strongly correlated with enrollment. Parents, especially mothers, play a central role in enrollment decisions.
Cultural Factors: Cultural practices, such as the mother wearing a burka or being accompanied when leaving the family compound, influence enrollment. In urban areas, being accompanied is negatively associated with girls' enrollment, while in rural areas, it is positively associated. This may reflect differences in social norms and access to support.
Disability and Child Labor: Children with disabilities are less likely to be enrolled, and child labor also negatively affects enrollment. The impact is more pronounced in urban areas.
Regional Variations: Regional disparities are significant. Children in the south, west, and southwest regions are less likely to be enrolled in primary school compared to those in the central region. However, girls in the west and northeast have a higher probability of enrollment than boys in the same provinces.
Insecurity Impact: Insecurity or violence-related shocks negatively affect the probability of enrollment, particularly for rural girls. This is consistent with findings from previous studies, though the effect is less pronounced than other variables.
School Quality and Availability: The availability and quality of schools, including the presence of co-educational schools and the proportion of female teachers, are associated with higher enrollment. Government-operated schools are less preferred than non-governmental ones.
Migration: While migration was a factor in qualitative studies, it had little impact on enrollment in econometric analysis, suggesting that it is not a major determinant of educational access in Afghanistan.

Key Variables and Their Impact

Demand-side Factors

Age and Gender: Age is a strong predictor of enrollment, with children aged 7–11 more likely to be enrolled than older children. Boys are more likely to be enrolled than girls.
Household Characteristics: Household size and per capita expenditure are important. Larger households have lower enrollment rates, while higher per capita expenditure is positively correlated with enrollment, especially in urban areas.
Parental Education: Parental education is a significant factor, with mothers' education having a larger impact than fathers'. This effect is stronger for girls.
Cultural Practices: Cultural norms, such as the mother's dress and mobility, influence enrollment. Wearing a burka is positively correlated with enrollment in urban areas, while being accompanied is negatively correlated with girls' enrollment in urban areas.

Supply-side Factors

School Availability: The availability of schools (boys-only, girls-only, co-educational, and madrassa) and the proportion of female teachers are important. The presence of co-educational schools and female teachers increases the likelihood of enrollment.
School Quality: Higher pass rates in the district and a higher proportion of female teachers are associated with higher enrollment. Male-only schools have little impact.
Accessibility and Connectivity: In urban areas, the distance to the nearest road negatively affects enrollment. In rural areas, the opposite is true, with increased distance from the nearest road associated with higher enrollment.
Community and Spatial Variables: Regional variables (e.g., south, west, and southwest regions) are significantly associated with lower enrollment rates. Province dummies are included to capture regional fixed effects.

Conclusion

The study highlights the complex interplay between demand-side and supply-side factors in determining educational attainment in Afghanistan. While economic prosperity and parental education are the most significant predictors, cultural norms and community characteristics also play a crucial role. The findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to improve enrollment, particularly for girls in rural and conflict-affected areas. Policy recommendations should focus on enhancing school availability and quality, supporting families through economic assistance, and addressing cultural barriers to education.