2025-05-19-Bernstein-逆全球化毕竟_这是一个大世界_逆全球化世界中赢家和输家的行业调查_341页_28mb

Summary of "DEGLOBALIZATION: IT'S A BIG WORLD, AFTER ALL"

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of deglobalization on various sectors and economies, particularly focusing on the United States and Asia. It outlines the current state of trade relations, the role of tariffs, and the implications for investment and business strategies in a post-globalization world.

Main Points

Globalization and Its End

• The era of globalization, which began in the late 1980s and early 1990s, has come to an end.
• The transition to deglobalization is marked by increased trade barriers, reduced cross-border flows, and heightened geopolitical tensions.
• The end of globalization was not due to a single event but rather a culmination of factors including Brexit, the pandemic, and the rise of protectionist policies.

US Tariff Policy

• The US has significantly increased its effective tariff rate, reaching 22% as of April 2025, the highest since the 1910s.
• The most affected Asian economies are China (54% → 145%), Vietnam (46%), Cambodia (49%), and South Korea (25%).
• The US effective tariff rate is now higher than during the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the 1930s.

Impact on Asian Economies

• China remains the largest trade partner of the US, but its exports have declined from $505Bn to $439Bn since 2017.
• Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and India have seen increased trade deficits with the US.
• Singapore and Australia are the only major Asian economies with a trade surplus with the US.

Economic and Inflation Impacts

• The potential inflation impact from reciprocal tariffs on Asian exports is estimated at 0.89%–3.56%, depending on pass-through rates.
• China's tariff value is the largest contributor, with an estimated 0.79%–3.14% of the inflation uptick.
• The impact on GDP growth is most severe for Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, and Malaysia, while India, Singapore, Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines are considered safer.

Most Impacted Products

• China: Cell phones, computers, toys/games, and apparel.
• Japan: Passenger cars, industrial machines.
• South Korea: Passenger cars, crude oil, industrial machines.
• Vietnam: Telecom equipment, cell phones, furniture, and apparel.
• Taiwan: Computer accessories, computers, semiconductors, and telecom equipment.

Investment Implications

• Domestic sectors in Asia, such as telecom, retailing, utilities, and real estate, are seen as safe havens.
• Defensive stocks (high-yield, low-volatility) are recommended for their resilience in a slower-growth environment.
• The most vulnerable sectors are consumer durables, apparel, and autos in China and Taiwan, as well as transportation in South Korea and healthcare equipment in Malaysia, Thailand, and Australia.

Key Information

Trade Relations and Tariff Trends

• The US has shifted from a trade deficit with China to a more balanced relationship, though the deficit with other Asian economies has grown.
• Tariffs have been applied broadly, with China facing the highest rates.
• There has been a rollback in tariffs for most Asian markets (excluding China), with the effective rate dropping to 10%.

Shift in Supply Chains

• China+1 strategy is helping many Asian economies diversify their supply chains.
• ASEAN has seen the highest growth in FDI from China, followed by the EU and the Middle East.
• LATAM and Africa have also received significant FDI from China, with LATAM reaching $596Bn in 2022.

Sectoral Analysis

• Consumer & Retail: US retailers are reducing exposure to China; global spirits and luxury goods are affected by geographical indications.
• Healthcare: US biopharma and life science tools face challenges due to tariffs and trade tensions.
• Industrial: Companies like Prysmian are adapting through vertical integration strategies.
• Technology: The impact of tariffs on semiconductors, automation, and IT services is nuanced, with some sectors benefiting from local production and others facing headwinds.

Uncertainties and Outlook

• The future of global trade remains uncertain, with potential changes in tariffs and trade policies.
• The document suggests that staying close to home is becoming a more strategic move for companies and investors.
• Deglobalization is not a complete reversal of globalization but rather a shift in the global economic order.

Conclusion

Deglobalization is reshaping trade dynamics, with significant implications for both the US and Asian economies. While some sectors and economies are better positioned to withstand the impact, others are facing substantial challenges. The shift toward local production and supply chain resilience is becoming a key theme, with investors advised to focus on domestic-oriented sectors and defensive stocks.