A股2024年十大预测-20240101-东吴证券-16页_1mb

A-Share Market 2024 Predictions Summary

Overview

Based on East Wu Securities' annual strategy report, this summarizes the key predictions for the A-share market in 2024 by the East Wu strategy team.

Key Predictions (2024 ten-top forecast)

• Prediction 1: A-share market will exhibit oscillating and rising trends, representing the start of a new bull market in 2024.
• Prediction 2: Growth-oriented market style will gain prominence, while small-cap and high-dividend styles face setbacks due to lingering excess returns.
• Prediction 3: Core assets that experienced significant declines over the past two and a half years are expected to undergo a valuation recovery.
• Prediction 4: Foreign capital flow will resume a sustained upward trend, potentially aligning with domestic investment movements.
• Prediction 5: China's nominal GDP growth is projected to improve markedly compared to 2023, supporting gains in corporate earnings and household income.
• Prediction 6: M1 money supply growth will show signs of warming up, enhancing the efficiency of macroeconomic policies.
• Prediction 7: Narrowing gaps in US-China nominal economic growth rates and interest rate spreads are anticipated, leading to RMB appreciation.
• Prediction 8: US economic performance may exceed expectations in the first half, prompting more than three interest rate cuts in 2024.
• Prediction 9: From the second half of 2024, synchronized manufacturing cycles between the US and China could drive restocking, improving overseas exports.
• Prediction 10: Throughout 2024, trading opportunities in digital economy sectors (e.g., data elements, AI, robotics), life health areas (e.g., silver economy, innovative pharmaceuticals), and "unbreakable" technology fields will persist.

Risk Considerations

• Economic recovery may not meet targets, potentially increasing market uncertainty.
• US Treasury yields might decline later than anticipated, negatively affecting capital flows.
• Geopolitical events could escalate tensions and impact global stability.