2025-05-24-Jefferies-展望-第一季度后的模型更新_57页_2mb

Document Summary: Model Updates Post Q1

Core Content

This document outlines updated financial forecasts and price targets for several DACH mid-cap companies following the first quarter of 2025. The overall growth outlook for Europe is improving due to fiscal expansion, capital markets union, and a focus on competitiveness. While European stocks have outperformed US peers in 2025, European SMID (Small and Mid Cap) stocks have slightly underperformed compared to large caps. However, SMID valuations remain at the low end of historical ranges, suggesting a strong potential for future outperformance.

Key Viewpoints

• European Economic Outlook: The European growth outlook is improving, supported by fiscal expansion and strategic initiatives like the German €500bn stimulus package and the EU's Clean Industrial Deal.
• Investor Allocation: The document suggests that investors should consider reducing US exposure and increasing allocations to Europe, especially in sectors with self-sufficient local supply chains.
• Valuation Discount: Small caps are currently trading at a significant discount (around -10%) compared to large caps, which could present an attractive entry point.
• PMI and Market Cycles: There is a correlation between Euro Area Manufacturing PMIs and the relative performance of small and large caps. However, this relationship has weakened recently, likely due to macroeconomic uncertainties and political developments.

Key Changes in Price Targets and Ratings

Ticker	Rating	Previous PT	New PT	Change (%)
BC8 GR	Buy	€50.00	€48.00	-4%
BFSA GR	Buy	€35.00	€38.00	+9%
IFCN SW	Buy	CHF135.00	CHF117	-13%
VOS GR	Buy	€55.00	€85.00	+55%
NA9 GR	Buy	€105.00	€93.00	-11%
DOCM SW	Buy	CHF39.00	CHF15.00	-62%
WAC GR	Hold	€16.00	€25.50	+59%
BSL GR	Hold	€7.00	€9.00	+29%
FTK GR	Hold	€17.00	€25.00	+47%
COK GR	Hold	€26.00	€30.00	+15%
ACLN SW	Hold	CHF48.36	CHF49.00	+2%
GF SW	Buy	CHF64.05	CHF82.00	+2%

Company-Specific Highlights

Bechtle (BC8 GR)

• Rating: Buy
• New PT: €48.00
• Reason: Despite weaker Q1 results, the company is expected to benefit from the German stimulus and economic recovery. EBIT margin is expected to be 5.3% in FY25.

Befesa (BFSA GR)

• Rating: Buy
• New PT: €38.00
• Reason: Strong Q1 performance, with a bold earnings guidance, and a return to profitability. EBITDA is expected to reach €248m in FY25, with a 18.8% margin improvement.

Inficon (IFCN SW)

• Rating: Buy
• New PT: CHF117.00
• Reason: Adjustments due to rising tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, but the company remains optimistic about the long-term growth of its semiconductor business.

Vossloh (VOS GR)

• Rating: Buy
• New PT: €85.00
• Reason: Strong mid-term growth prospects, including project opportunities and the impact of the Sateba acquisition.

Nagarro (NA9 GR)

• Rating: Buy
• New PT: €93.00
• Reason: Cautious outlook due to geopolitical uncertainty, but the company is well-positioned for future growth.

DocMorris (DOCM SW)

• Rating: Buy
• New PT: CHF15.00
• Reason: Capital raise to support growth in Rx business, with a focus on improving market share and achieving positive FCF by 2027.

Cancom (COK GR)

• Rating: Hold
• New PT: €30.00
• Reason: Weaker Q1 results, but the company is expected to benefit from the German infrastructure stimulus and the end of Windows 10 support.

Accelleron (ACLN SW)

• Rating: Hold
• New PT: CHF49.00
• Reason: High relative valuation, with expected 5% organic growth and 7% YoY profit growth. The company is focusing on fuel injection and integrated vision systems.

Friedrich Vorwerk (VH2 GR)

• Rating: Hold
• New PT: €60.00
• Reason: Improved margin and EBITDA, with a focus on gas compression and industrial applications.

Georg Fischer (GF SW)

• Rating: Buy
• New PT: CHF82.00
• Reason: Strong performance and improved EBITDA, with a focus on operational efficiency and strategic initiatives.

Wacker Neusong (WAC GR)

• Rating: Hold
• New PT: €25.50
• Reason: Improved EBITDA and margin, with a focus on leveraging the German infrastructure stimulus and the end of Windows 10 support.

Outlook for European SMID

• Performance: European SMID has slightly underperformed compared to large caps, but valuations are at historical lows, indicating a potential for strong future returns.
• Growth Drivers: Fiscal expansion, capital markets union, and the German stimulus package are expected to support growth in the industrial and manufacturing sectors.
• Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly around the Ukraine conflict and global tariffs, remain a concern but are being addressed through unified European responses.
• Investor Strategy: Investors are advised to consider increasing European allocations and reducing US exposure, especially in the context of a soft economic landing and improving PMI data.

Conclusion

The updated model reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook for European SMID stocks, with several companies showing potential for growth and re-rating. The document highlights the importance of relative valuations, macroeconomic trends, and strategic initiatives in shaping future performance. Overall, the European market is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity, particularly for companies with self-sufficient supply chains and strong growth prospects.