20211208-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_2页_137kb

Summary of the Document

Core Content

The document provides a comprehensive overview of the current market and sector developments in China, Hong Kong, and Macau, with a focus on macroeconomic policies, stock market performance, and industry-specific updates. It also includes company-specific news and important disclaimers regarding the nature of the information provided.

Main Market Trends

• Hong Kong Stocks Market:
  • The market surged yesterday due to positive sentiment from the RRR cut and the overnight rebound in the U.S. market.
  • Tech stocks, especially those with secondary listings in Hong Kong, and the China property sector outperformed the index.
  • The Hang Seng Index rose 634 points to 23,983 points, with a daily turnover of HKD153.4 billion.
  • Technically, the index needs to climb above 24,600 points to signal improvement.
  • According to ig.com, the Hang Seng Index is expected to open approximately 100 points higher this morning, reaching 24,100 points.

China Macro Overview

• RRR Cut:
  • The People's Bank of China (PBoC) cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), expected to inject about RMB1.2 trillion into the banking system.
  • Part of the liquidity will be used to repay maturing MLF of RMB950 billion, leaving at least RMB250 billion for banks.
• Policy Easing:
  • The RRR cut is seen as a signal of monetary easing, in response to rising downside growth risks, property slowdown, energy controls, and virus resurgences.
  • The PBoC introduced a new relending tool to support green bank lending.
  • Market expects further policy easing, including more RRR cuts, additional relending quotas, and favorable tax treatments for small businesses, green investment, and technology upgrades.
• Economic Outlook:
  • Real GDP growth is at risk of further deceleration into early 2022.
  • Total social financing growth has dropped to a record low of 10%.
  • Positive outlook for China A-share ETF, China bank, China insurance, and China property sectors.

Macau Gaming Sector

• GGR Performance:
  • In the first week of December, the average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP260 million, up 14% from November's MOP228 million.
  • Daily mass market GGR increased by 20% compared to November.
• Industry Developments:
  • Unconfirmed reports suggest Wynn Macau Ltd may shut down all its junket operations.
  • The daily average of inbound and outbound tourist movements between 25 November and 1 December reached 58,000, surpassing the peak recovery month of May.
• Travel Policy:
  • Starting from 10 December, the Hong Kong government will launch the new 'Hong Kong Health Code' system, which is expected to facilitate quarantine-free travel with Macau and mainland China.

China Coal Sector

• Price Trends:
  • The BSPI declined slightly by 0.3% week-on-week (Ww) to RMB767 per ton as of 1 December.
  • The CCI5,500 spot coal price remained stable at RMB947 per ton over the past week.
• Supply and Demand:
  • The average daily coal supply to coal IPPs nationwide reached 8.6 million tons in mid-to-late November, up 30% YoY and hitting a historical peak of 9.43 million tons.
  • The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expects coal inventory to improve further and to ensure sufficient supply for the winter heating season (4Q21-1Q22E).
• Pricing Mechanism:
  • The NDRC introduced a "basic + floating" pricing mechanism for 2022E long-term thermal coal contracts.
  • The base price for 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal is expected to be in the range of RMB550-850 per ton.
  • Seaborne coal's base price is projected to rise by 30.8% to RMB700 per ton from RMB535 per ton.
• Market Expectations:
  • Major coal groups are expected to benefit from the potential upward revision of base prices.
  • Coal prices are likely to remain stable due to the relatively balanced supply and demand dynamics in 4Q21E.

China Property Sector

• Sales Performance:
  • In the first week of December, property sales slightly increased week-on-week (WoW) in both primary and secondary markets.
  • Primary GFA sold in 36 cities rose 1% WoW but fell 29% YoY.
  • Secondary GFA sold in 10 cities increased 3% WoW but dropped 37% YoY.
• Regional Highlights:
  • The Yangtze River Delta Region outperformed, with Shanghai (+158%), Huai'an (+79%), and Wenzhou (+34%) leading the WoW increases.
  • Hangzhou and Yangzhou also showed notable increases in secondary GFA sales.
• Inventory Levels:
  • Inventory remained flat WoW but decreased 1.2% YoY to 12.3 months (vs. 12.0 in November 2021).
  • Inventory increases were mainly seen in Hangzhou (+3%) and Xiamen (+2%).
• Policy Easing:
  • Various provinces have introduced easing policies, including:
    • Shanghai allowing graduates to obtain local Hukou upon employment in pilot districts.
    • Nantong launching 100,000 talent apartment units during the 14th Five-Year Plan.
    • Hangzhou permitting non-locally registered households to purchase collective ownership housing.
    • Gansu accelerating the development of affordable rental housing.

Company News: China Longyuan (916 HK)

• Power Generation:
  • The company reported November power generation of 5,647 GWh, up 11.5% YoY.
  • Domestic wind power generation increased by 12.8% YoY to 4,718 GWh.
• Utilization Hours:
  • Market estimates domestic wind utilization hours in November rose by 2.0% YoY.
• Curtailment Rate:
  • The curtailment rate expanded by 1.08 percentage points to 5.13% in November 2021 (vs. 4.05% in November 2020).
• Regional Performance:
  • Qinghai, Hubei, and Shanxi led the YoY growth in power generation with increases of 218%, 98%, and 94%, respectively.
  • Guizhou and Inner Mongolia saw YoY declines in power generation of 45% and 41%, respectively.

Key Disclaimers

• The document is for general information and not investment research or recommendation.
• No independent verification of the information is conducted.
• The information is based on data from recognized sources but may not be accurate or complete.
• Kim Eng (HK) does not take responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on the contents.
• Opinions expressed are subject to change and may not align with fundamental, technical, or quantitative analyses.
• There may be conflicts of interest, including participation in financing transactions or investment banking services for mentioned companies.