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Summary of 2023 Macroeconomic Analysis Report: Inflation Decline and Resident Demand Softness (May 15, 2023)

Key Findings

• Inflation: CPI and PPI in April 2023 showed significant declines due to high year-over-year comparison bases, falling oil and pork prices, and weak consumer demand.
• Consumer Credit and Investment: Resident loan demand remained low due to unemployment concerns, while businesses showed strong expansion intentions with increased loan uptake.
• Economic Activity: Post-holiday spending moderated as expected, with entertainment and travel showing resilience in some cities; manufacturing and industrial output faced moderate slowdowns.
• Real Estate: Sales volumes recovered, especially in secondary and tertiary cities, supported by policy interventions aimed at stimulating housing demand.
• Financial Indicators: M2 growth slowed, while corporate investment remained robust under supportive monetary policies.

Overall, the report highlights a mixed economic landscape where inflation pressures ease contrasted with persistent weak consumer demand, driven by macroeconomic factors like high bases and labor market issues, pointing to a gradual normalization in key sectors.