2026-01-20-中银国际-2025年四季度GDP点评_2025年四季度GDP增速放缓至4.5_呼吁2026政策前置发力_5页_914kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Michael MENG (852)39886433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance Last close % 1D % YTD HSI 26,564 (1.0) 3.6 HSCEI 9,134 (0.9) 2.5 HSCCI 4,143 0.1 3.2 MSCI HK 14,579 (0.0) 6.5 MSCI CHINA 86 (1.0) 3.6 FTSE CHINA A50 15,166 (0.4) (0.9) CSI 300 4,734 0.1 2.3 TWSE 31,639 0.7 9.2 SENSEX 83,570 0.2 (1.9) NIKKEI 225 53,584 (0.7) 6.4 KOSPI 4,905 1.3 16.4 ASX 200 8,813 (0.4) 1.6 DJIA 49,359 (0.2) 2.7 S&P 500 6,940 (0.1) 1.4 FTSE 100 10,195 (0.4) 2.7 * US data as of 19 Jan 2026 Commodity Price Performance Last close % 1D %YTD Brent Crude (US$/bbl) 64 0.0 5.4 Gold (US$/oz) 4,671 1.6 8.1 Copper (US$/t) 12,803 (2.3) 3.1 Aluminum (US$/t) 3,143 (0.8) 5.9 Nickel (US$/t) 17,390 (5.4) 5.4 CH domestic steel rebar 25 (RMB/t) 3,247 0.0 0.2 CH domestic high speed wire (RMB/t) 3,689 (0.3) 0.0 CH domestic hot rolled steel (RMB/t) 3,290 (0.2) 0.6 CH domestic cold rolled steel (RMB/t) 3,793 (0.2) (0.3) BDI (index) 1,532 0.0 (18.4) * US data as of 19 Jan 2026 Key Macro and Earnings Releases Con-sensus Last actual 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (CH) 20/1 3.0 3.0 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (CH) 20/1 3.5 3.5 PCE Price Index YoY (US) 22/1 2.8 2.8 Core PCE Price Index YoY (US) 22/1 2.8 2.8 Personal Income MoM (US) 22/1 0.4 0.4 Personal Spending MoM (US) 22/1 0.5 0.4 GDP Annualized QoQ (US) 22/1 4.3 4.3 S&P Global US Services PMI (US) 23/1 52.9 52.5 U. of Mich. Sentiment (US) 23/1 54.0 54.0 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (US) 23/1 52.0 51.8 BOJ Target Rate 23/1 0.8 0.8 Durable Goods Orders MoM (US) 26/1 3.3 (2.2) Industrial Profits YoY (CH) 27/1 -- (13.1) Industrial Profits YTD YoY (CH) 27/1 -- 0.1 Key BOCI Events Corp Access Date 中银国际 2026年中国投资展望 20 Jan 中银国际在线专家会-太空光伏技术路线及需求展望(Tencent Meeting at 8:30pm) 20 Jan 中银国际在线专家会-委内瑞拉事件与美国拉美政策的转向(Tencent Meeting at 11am) 20 Jan 中银国际在线专家会-SpaceX降本路径拆解及行业重点事件(Tencent Meeting at 10am) 21 Jan 中银国际在线专家会-比亚迪黑科技前瞻与2026年全链条战略展望(Tencent Meeting at 5:30pm) 21 Jan Please register with your BOCI sales rep. # MORNING INSIGHTS # GDP growth moderates to $4.5\%$ in 4Q25, calling for front-loaded policy in 2026 # Zhang Wan/Penny Peng Macro & Strategy | China Economy (i) China's GDP growth moderated from $4.8\%$ YoY in 3Q25 to $4.5\%$ YoY in 4Q25, slightly beating our expectation. For the full year 2025, GDP increased $5\%$ , the same as in 2024, achieving the annual economic growth target. (ii) In December, resilient industrial output growth and an expanding information technology industry helped stabilise economic growth, though domestic demand remained insufficient. Deepening property sector adjustments, "anti-involution" policy guidance, and slowing traditional infrastructure investment further softened overall investment growth. Retail sales growth also weakened as consumer sentiment remained tepid. (iii) Although policymakers have introduced incremental measures and sent clear signals to stabilise investment, front-loaded policies may be necessary given the intensifying weakness in domestic demand and the high base effect in 1Q25. # 2025年四季度GDP增速放缓至 $4.5\%$ ，呼吁2026政策前置发力 # 张婉/彭助 (i) 中国GDP增速从2025年三季度的同比 $4.8\%$ 放缓至四季度的同比 $4.5\%$ ，略高于我们的预期。2025年全年GDP增长 $5\%$ ，与2024年持平，达成年度经济增长目标。 (ii) 12月，工业产出的稳健增长以及信息技术产业的扩张对经济增长起到了稳定作用，但国内需求仍不足。受房地产行业调整加剧、“反内卷”政策以及传统基建放缓的影响，投资增速进一步放缓。同时，由于消费情绪低迷，零售销售增速也有所下降。 (iii) 尽管政策制定者已推出增量政策并给出“稳定投资”的明确信号，但鉴于国内需求疲软加剧以及2025年一季度的高基数，可能仍需2026年稳增长政策靠前发力。 # China Tourism Sector - OVERWEIGHT (H) # Tony Li, CFA/Penny Peng Sector Update | Consumer Services (i) OTA sector is under pressure after Trip.com was under antitrust probe. Investors feedback from our recent marketing suggested Trip.com, used to be a consensus buy for 2026, and such investigation could make investors uneasy after $>20\%$ pullback. (ii) We refer to past cases of antitrust probes, especially those related to Booking.com, and believe that the long term impact to the earnings of Trip.com, and to a lesser extent Tongcheng Travel, should be limited. However, given the uncertainty on legal settlement and the business model, we expect some time for investors to regain confidence, probably around Aug 2026. (iii) After all, we now view that H World Group would be the top pick of the sector. # 中国旅游行业 - 何时可以抄底OTA？過往个案研究 (增持-H股) # 李嘉豪/彭助 (i) 自携程接受反垄断调查后，OTA板块承压。我们从近期的路演反馈得知，投资者此前一致在2026年看好携程，而这次调查令公司股价大跌逾 $20\%$ ，令投资者们感到不安。 (ii)我们参考过往反垄断调查的个案，尤其是Booking.com，认为调查对携程、甚至同程旅游的长期业绩影响有限。不过，考虑到处罚结果以及后续业务模式的不确定性，我们预期投资者重拾信心需时，或可能需等到2026年8月左右。 (iii) 综合所有因素考虑，我们目前认为华住集团是行业首选。 # China Property - High base effect diminishing but pressure persists Gurney Liu, CFA News Alert | Property (i) There is marginal improvement in the new home market as both volume and ASP decline rates narrowed in December. We think this is mainly due to diminishing impact from high base effect, as lower YoY comparison pressure on developers could also translate into smaller price cuts. (ii) However, we believe the underlying market condition is still facing persistent pressure, as both volume and ASP decline rates for existing home market further expanded in December. (iii) Based on recent signal from the central government, we believe more tier-1 cities will follow the steps of Beijing and release further policy supports. Together with de-stocking policies such as buying commodity housing to use as social housing, as well as potentially subsidising home loan interest, we believe the property market will gradually stabilise by the end of 2026 or in early 2027. # 中国房地产－高基数效应逐渐消退但下行压力继续 (消息快报) # 刘宇声 (i)新房市场略有改善，12月份成交量和平均售价的跌幅均有所收窄。我们认为这主要是由于高基数效应的影响减弱，因为开发商面临同比压力降低，也可能导致降价幅度缩小。 (ii) 然而，我们认为市场基本面仍面临持续压力，因为12月份二手房市场的成交量和平均售价跌幅进一步扩大。 (iii)根据中央政府近期发出的信号，我们相信更多一线城市将效仿北京的步伐，推出进一步的政策支持。再加上购买商品住房作为保障性住房等去库存政策，以及可能的住房贷款贴息政策，我们认为房地产市场将在2026年底或2027年初逐步稳定。 # Key takeaways from BOCI expert call on domestic LLM Alex Lin/Alina Lin News Alert | TMT (i) BOCI Expert Call Series invited an experienced expert from domestic top LLM team to provide updates on domestic LLM progress. (ii) In 2026, primary strategic focus for Chinese model training shifts from standard LLMs to multimodal capabilities, with leading vendors scheduled to release the next generation of domestic large models throughout 1Q26. (iii) For infrastructure, the localisation rate for domestic training chips remains subdued for 2026 while model developers retain the ability to apply for overseas training GPU procurement quotas within current regulatory frameworks. For application, Alibaba has successfully executed AI restructuring across its core business scenarios and plans to roll out more segmented products once it expands its computing power. # 中银国际国产大模型专家电话会要点 (消息快报) # 林仲衡/林芷若 (i) 中银国际专家系列电话会议邀请了一位国产大模型行业资深专家，就国产大模型近况和发展进行分享。 (ii)总体而言，2026年国内模型训练的核心战略重心将从标准大语言模型（LLMs）转向多模态能力，头部厂商计划于2026年一季度集中发布新一代国产大模型。 (iii)基础设施方面，2026年国内训练芯片国产化率仍处于低位，但在现有监管框架下，模型研发企业仍具备申请海外训练GPU采购配额的权限。应用方面，阿里巴巴已完成AI在核心业务的重构，更多细分场景产品将于算力扩容后逐步推出。 # Certifications and Important Disclosure All views expressed in this material reflect the personal views of each analyst about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. 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