2025-06-10-Jefferies-2025年6月10日印度金融日报_15页_843kb

报告摘要

Key Market Data & Trends:

Equities: Nifty index rose 0.4% at last close (June 9), totalizing a 5% increase over the past month. Nifty Bank gained 0.5% daily, summing to the same period's 6% increase. Retail-focused ETFs (Capri Global, Five-Star Business) led daily gains, while JSW Holdings and Home First Finance underperformed.
Liquidity: The RBI discontinued daily VRR auctions starting June 11 due to surplus liquidity, estimated at INR 2.4tn on June 9. The INR/CAD dollar closed at 50.4961.
Banking: Net mutual fund equity flows decreased 22 month-on-month to INR 190bn in May. Large-cap funds saw the largest withdrawal (-53 MoM). SIPs remained resilient (INR 267bn). Bank credit growth decelerated to 10.5% YoY (May). Deposit growth also slowed to 10.5% YoY. Investment/deposit ratio stabilizes around 29%. Credit/deposit ratio remains near 81-85%. LICs dominate bancassurance (94% agency premiums) with regulatory stability noted.

New Developments & Company Announcements:

Leadership Changes:
- Kotak Bank appointed Srishti Sethi (30+yrs exp) as Group CRO. Max Financial CEO Asim Saleem's departure marks a slight setback, but smooth transition is key. Vinayak Agarwal (IPru AMC) joins Jio BlackRock as CRO.
Company Milestones:
- Jio BlackRock AM introduced its executive team, led by Sid Swaminathan (MD & CEO). Jana SFB applied for universal bank conversion. SBILIFE expects improved 4Q results despite lower ULIPs. HDFC Bank's core trends remain steady (4QFY25). Muthoot Finance (MUTHIN) posted another strong quarter.
Regulatory:
- Banca channel proposal drop confirmed, emphasizing bancassurance's role. RBI eased loan risk weights on NBFCs and MFIs. Proposed gold loan norms eased concerns initially. Band F&O expiry date adjustment noted.
Valuations (From Exhibits 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18):
- Valuation Buy/Hold/Underperform ratings across sectors vary. Major Buy picks include Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Can Fin Homes, Max Financial, LIC Housing Finance (Hold), KFin Technologies, PB Fintech, UBS. Hold recommendations for SBIN, BlackRock, Two-Sided AMCs. Sector performance ratings dominated by Buy but varied (Approx. 60% Buy, 35% Hold, 5% Underperform).

Sectors & Research:

BFSI Research: Focus on soft growth, private lead, regulatory monitoring (GI May-25). NBFCs show margin improvement, bank loan growth picked up.
Final LCR Norms: Expected changes may provide a positive ~10 trillion INR impact. Security issuance prepared related to eased norms.
Recent Notes: Covers Private Banks, NBFCs/Sectorals, MFs, Select Companies (IDFCFB, CIFC, LIC).

Other Features:

Rating distribution shows ~60% of mentioned stocks receive a Buy view.
Analyst certification confirms opinions are personal and not tied to compensation directly to reported recommendations.
Contact details provided for queries.

Disclaimer: Report is for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution prohibited. Full important disclosures on pages 10-15.

展开完整摘要