20260310-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_8页_913kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed market update and analysis for the fixed income sector, covering bond price movements, issuance data, economic indicators, and analyst comments from the CMBI Fixed Income Department.

Key Market Movements

Fixed Income Daily Market Update

• ICBCAS Float 29: Tightened 1bp from RO at SOFR+38.
• Asia IG space: Recovered and tightened 5bps.
• Profit-taking flows: Observed on JP FRNs.
• GLPSP 4.25/4.6 Perps: Recovered 1.3-1.4pts.
• NWDEVL 10.131 Perp/FAEACO 12.814 Perp/LNGFOR 32: Down 0.6-0.7pt.
• Higher-yielding names:
  • FOSUNI 26-29 lost 0.1-2.4pts after profit warning.
  • WESCHI 28-29 leaked 0.9pt.
  • Chinese properties: FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26-29 down 0.1-0.5pt.
• SE Asian space:
  • PTTGC Perps down 1.3-1.8pts after Fitch revised rating outlook to negative.
  • TOPTB 6.1 Perp down 1.3pts.
  • GLPSPs dived 1.8-2.8pts.
• JP space:
  • Long-end SOFTBKs leaked 1.2-1.4pts.
  • Japanese and Yankee AT1s and insurance subs dropped 1.0-2.0pts.
• Middle East:
  • FABUH/BSFR/ARAMCO down 0.2-0.7pt.

Top Movers

Gross USD Bonds Issuance

• Asia Pacific: Gross USD bonds issuance increased by 24.6% yoy in 2M26 to USD72.1bn.
  • Top issuers: Japan (USD20.9bn), South Korea (USD15.1bn), China (USD9.4bn).
  • Sector distribution: Financials (64.7%), sovereigns (12.4%), utilities (5.5%).
  • IG bonds: 81.4% of total issuance.
• Asia ex-JP, AU & NZ: Gross USD bonds issuance rose 22.1% yoy to USD42.2bn.
  • Top issuers: South Korea (USD15.1bn), China (USD9.4bn), Indonesia (USD4.2bn).
  • Sector distribution: Financials (47.5%), sovereigns (21.2%), utilities (8.3%).
  • IG bonds: 73.0% of total issuance.
• China: Gross USD bonds issuance rose 2.7% yoy to USD9.4bn.
  • Top issuers: Financials (58.6%), communications (15.9%), real estate (10.8%).
  • IG bonds: 65.5% of total issuance.
• Middle East: Gross USD bonds issuance increased 33.9% yoy to USD67.4bn.
  • Top issuers: Saudi Arabia (USD27.1bn), UAE (USD11.6bn), Turkey (USD10.9bn).
  • Sector distribution: Sovereigns (43.6%), financials (32.2%), energy (8.4%).
  • IG bonds: 65.6% of total issuance.
• LGFVs:
  • Gross USD bonds issuance decreased 82.0% yoy to USD485.5mn in Feb'26.
  • Dim Sum LGFV bonds issuance decreased 93.9% yoy to RMB500mn.
  • The decline was partly due to tightened regulatory environment through Southbound Bond Connect.

China Economy Analysis

• CPI in Feb'26: Rebounded to 1.3% yoy, beating market expectations of 0.9%.
  • Core CPI: Rose to 1.8% yoy, the highest in years, driven by tourism price.
  • Food and goods prices: Increased less than seasonal patterns.
  • Service prices: Rose stronger than usual, particularly gold jewellery.
• PPI in Feb'26: Narrowed to -0.9% yoy from -1.4% in Dec, beating expectations.
  • Upstream sectors: Crude oil and non-ferrous metals saw significant price increases.
  • Downstream sectors: Consumer goods PPI remained subdued.
• Deflation concerns: China appears to be edging out of deflation, but price-wage transmission remains fragile.
• Future outlook:
  • CPI, PPI, and GDP deflator expected to reflate to 1.1%, 0.5%, and 0.8% in 2026.
  • PBOC is expected to lower interest rate and RRR by 10bps and 50bps by end of 2Q26.

News and Market Color

• Onshore primary issuances: 91 credit bonds issued with RMB94bn, up 25.9% yoy month-to-date.
• Kazakhstan: May place Panda bonds as soon as next month, seeking USD500mn.
• ACENPM: ACEN 2025 EBITDA up 17% to PHP22.5bn (cUSD380.1mn).
• ARAMCO: Cut output at two oilfields during Strait of Hormuz disruption.
• COSL: Priced CNH5bn 3-year Reg S senior unsecured dim sum bond at 1.95%, tightened from IPT at 2.45%.
• GLPSP: Media reported plans for a Hong Kong IPO to raise at least USD1bn.
• RIOLN: Rio Tinto halts sale of titanium business due to difficulties in dealing with potential Chinese buyers.

Author Certification

• The author certifies that all views reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
• Confirms no trading in the stocks covered within 30 days prior to the report.
• No financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in the report.

Important Disclosures

• CMBIGM provides general market information and does not offer personalized investment advice.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• The report is for informational purposes only and not an offer to buy or sell securities.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage incurred from reliance on the report.
• The report may be subject to change without notice.
• CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with issuers and may have conflicts of interest.

Disclaimer

• UK: Report is provided only to persons falling within Article 19(5) or 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Financial Promotion Order 2005.
• US: Report is not for distribution to any person other than "major US institutional investors."
• Singapore: Report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and is subject to Singapore regulations.

Contact Information

• Fixed Income Department
  Tel: 852 3657 6235 / 852 3900 0801
  Email: fis@cmbi.com.hk

• Analysts
  Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 / glennko@cmbi.com.hk
  Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 / cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk
  Yujing Zhang: (852) 3900 0830 / zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk