> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Australian office indicators Key leasing and capital markets metrics across the Australian office market Q4 2025 # Strengthening demand is driving a lift in rent growth # NET ABSORPTION GROWS AGAIN Australian CBD office net absorption rose again in H2 2025 by 71,541 sqm, taking annual absorption to 135,279 sqm – the highest total since 2022. This growth was broad based with all main CBD locations experiencing positive net absorption in 2025. However, average CBD vacancy still rose by $0.5\%$ to $14.8\%$ in H2. This rise reflected the delivery of new supply particularly in Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide. # STRONG RENTAL PERFORMANCE There has been a marked uplift in prime office rental growth in many capital cities. Adelaide and Brisbane continue to stand out with exceptionally strong annual effective rent growth. Sydney and Melbourne CBD rents also gained significant momentum in H2 2025, mostly driven by an acceleration of rents in core precincts. The dispersion between the performance of premium and/or core buildings and the rest of the market continued to grow in Q4. # LESS NEW SUPPLY IN 2026 The national office supply pipeline is dwindling over the next five years. Over the next three years, the development pipeline in major CBDs is forecast to deliver c680,000 sqm of new supply - close to half the 10-year average. The pipeline looks particularly thin in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth. Developers face multiple pressures including high construction costs, elevated funding costs and higher cap rates which have increased economic rents and made it significantly harder for new developments to be feasible. Combined with the expected continuation of positive absorption, this should see the national average vacancy rate fall, and rent growth strengthen further, throughout 2026. # CBD net absorption continues to grow 12 months net absorption ('000sqm),vacancy rate $(\%)$ # Strong rent growth in several CBDs Annual net face rental growth & net effective rental growth $(\%)$ # A rapidly diminishing pipeline of new supply Historic and forecast completions by city ('000 sqm) # Key data points Prime market averages – Q4 2025 <table><tr><td></td><td>Net face rent ($/sqm)</td><td>Growth (q/q, %)</td><td>Growth (y/y, %)</td><td>Incentives (%)</td><td>Net effective rent ($/sqm)</td><td>Growth (q/q, %)</td><td>Growth (y/y, %)</td><td>Yield (%)</td><td>Overall vacancy (H2, PCA, %)</td></tr><tr><td>CBDs</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Sydney</td><td>1,397</td><td>1.9</td><td>5.5</td><td>35.6 (g)</td><td>809</td><td>4.6</td><td>7.1</td><td>5.70</td><td>13.8</td></tr><tr><td>Melbourne</td><td>756</td><td>0.1</td><td>5.2</td><td>47.6 (n)</td><td>396</td><td>0.2</td><td>4.0</td><td>6.76</td><td>19.0</td></tr><tr><td>Brisbane</td><td>868</td><td>1.1</td><td>7.7</td><td>37.8 (g)</td><td>462</td><td>1.6</td><td>11.4</td><td>7.25</td><td>11.8</td></tr><tr><td>Perth</td><td>734</td><td>0.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>47.0 (n)</td><td>389</td><td>0.5</td><td>-0.4</td><td>7.58</td><td>16.9</td></tr><tr><td>Adelaide</td><td>572</td><td>0.7</td><td>9.5</td><td>34.1 (g)</td><td>325</td><td>0.3</td><td>11.6</td><td>7.26</td><td>15.5</td></tr><tr><td>Canberra</td><td>481</td><td>4.1</td><td>5.2</td><td>28.6 (g)</td><td>308</td><td>3.1</td><td>4.3</td><td>6.97</td><td>10.2</td></tr><tr><td>Suburban</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>North Sydney</td><td>945</td><td>0</td><td>1.8</td><td>40.2 (g)</td><td>495</td><td>-1.6</td><td>-2.0</td><td>7.49</td><td>25.9</td></tr><tr><td>St Leonards</td><td>671</td><td>0</td><td>0.4</td><td>42.0 (g)</td><td>326</td><td>-2.5</td><td>-4.5</td><td>8.13</td><td>29.1</td></tr><tr><td>Chatswood</td><td>647</td><td>0</td><td>0.8</td><td>42.0 (g)</td><td>312</td><td>-4.9</td><td>-8.5</td><td>8.15</td><td>18.5</td></tr><tr><td>Macquarie Park</td><td>480</td><td>0</td><td>2.1</td><td>41.0 (g)</td><td>283</td><td>-1.7</td><td>-2.8</td><td>8.00</td><td>24.0</td></tr><tr><td>Parramatta</td><td>575</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>38.4 (n)</td><td>355</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>8.13</td><td>22.1</td></tr><tr><td>Southbank</td><td>692</td><td>0.0</td><td>2.5</td><td>47.50 (n)</td><td>363</td><td>0.0</td><td>2.5</td><td>7.33</td><td>15.0</td></tr><tr><td>St Kilda Road</td><td>534</td><td>0.8</td><td>1.7</td><td>50.0 (n)</td><td>267</td><td>0.8</td><td>1.7</td><td>7.94</td><td>31.6</td></tr></table> Recent transactions <table><tr><td></td><td>Property</td><td>Price (A$m)</td><td>Size (NLA sqm)</td><td>Purchaser</td><td>Vendor</td><td>Core market Yield (%)</td><td>WALE</td></tr><tr><td colspan="8">CBD</td></tr><tr><td>Sydney</td><td>Grosvenor Place (50%)</td><td>860.0</td><td>85,509</td><td>GPT</td><td>CSC</td><td>6.0</td><td>3.4</td></tr><tr><td>Sydney</td><td>Grosvenor Place (25%)</td><td>430.0</td><td>85,509</td><td>CSC</td><td>Blackstone</td><td>6.0</td><td>3.4</td></tr><tr><td>Sydney</td><td>Darling Square</td><td>360.0</td><td>27,749</td><td>Barings</td><td>Lendlease JV Aware Super</td><td>U/D</td><td>U/D</td></tr><tr><td>Melbourne</td><td>470 Collins St</td><td>60.3</td><td>11,000</td><td>Fortis</td><td>Suleman Property</td><td>6.2</td><td>1.2</td></tr><tr><td>Melbourne</td><td>750 Collins St</td><td>383.0</td><td>41,399</td><td>Trust-Capital</td><td>GPT Group</td><td>6.5</td><td>10.0</td></tr><tr><td>Brisbane</td><td>Central Plaza One</td><td>222.5</td><td>40,446</td><td>Aravest</td><td>ISPT</td><td>6.8</td><td>4.7</td></tr><tr><td>Brisbane</td><td>60 Albert St</td><td>208.0</td><td>21,263</td><td>Ashe Morgan</td><td>Dexus Wholesale Property Fund</td><td>7.5</td><td>7.5</td></tr><tr><td>Canberra</td><td>23 Furzer Street</td><td>305.0</td><td>46,029</td><td>LDR Capital</td><td>Mirvac</td><td>7.83</td><td>9.1</td></tr></table> # Sales volumes rise # Transaction activity lifts in Q4 and Sydney CBD core yields tighten further CBD office investment activity rose to $2.4 billion of closed transactions in Q4 2025. Activity was driven by Sydney, with the sale of both a 25% stake in Grosvenor Place to CSC for $430 million and a 50% stake to GPT for $860 million – a combined sale value of $1.3 billion. Several significant sales also occurred in Melbourne including TrustCapital selling 750 Collins St to GPT for $383 million, and PAG selling Flinders Gate for $254.5 million to Dexter. In Brisbane, Aravest bought a 50% stake in Central Plaza One for $222.5 million from ISPT. It is estimated that around $0.5 billion of Q4 transactions remain under contract. CBD office transaction volumes totalled $5.4 billion in 2025, below the$ 7.1 billion recorded in 2024. However, increasing investor confidence that asset valuations have stabilised will likely foster greater confidence and drive a continued pick-up in deal momentum across all cities in 2026. - In precincts leading the rebound, including the Sydney CBD Core, rising confidence in the market outlook has reduced the number of high-quality assets being listed. Owners are beginning to see early signs of capital growth and are therefore holding off sales until valuations recover from their cyclical lows. Investors seeking to deploy capital may need to look beyond the core. - Average prime yields tightened slightly further in the Sydney CBD core in Q4 by 5 bps while other precincts remained steady, highlighting the underlying strength for best-in-class CBD assets. Average prime yields were largely unchanged across all other CBD locations in Q4 2025, confirming that core asset values have stabilised in these markets with the next move likely to be up. Australian CBD office investment rebounds CBD office investment volumes by city (AUD billions) Strong finish to 2025 Cumulative CBD office transaction volume by year (AUD Prime office yields tighten in Sydney CBD Australian borrowing costs rise sharply Yield by swap duration # Positive absorption continues # Demand strongest for high quality CBD assets and core locations - In H2 2025 there was positive net absorption of 71,541 sqm across the Australian CBD markets, which took yearly absorption for the past 12 months to 135,279 sqm – the strongest since H1 2022. The sustained recovery in net absorption signifies growing demand for office space and the improved sentiment throughout most CBD markets. - All capital cities recorded positive absorption over the last 12 months, driven by a slowing supply pipeline and increased tenant demand. Tenants seeking high-end contiguous space are increasingly aware of the looming shortage of new stock. This is bringing forward tenant demand as they look to secure new space well-ahead of their current lease expiry. - The 'best and the rest' thematic continues to prevail, with a focus on high quality, well-located premises that have the best amenity for employees, if not on the doorstep, then immediately adjacent in the precinct. - Demand for newly built product remains high nationally as occupiers are still focused on delivering new workplaces which will encourage high productivity, collaboration, employee wellbeing and are well-credentialled with high ESG ratings. - The clear divergence in performance by location also persists, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where the core CBD precincts have been outperforming for some time. However, positive absorption has now spread to neighbouring markets including Sydney's Western Corridor and Melbourne's Docklands precinct. CBD net absorption continues to grow 12 months net absorption ('000sqm), vacancy rate $(\%)$ Source:Knight Frank Research, PCA Strong demand for prime office space Net absorption by grade over past 2 years ('000sqm) Source: Knight Frank Research, PCA Rising net absorption in main CBD locations Rolling 12-month CBD net absorption by city ('000 sqm) Source:Knight Frank Research, PCA Tenant demand rises for core precincts Net absorption in 12-months to Jan-25 (000 sqm) Source:Knight Frank Research, PCA # Vacancy stabilising # CBD vacancy stabilising in some markets, but the pipeline is thinning out - Across the Australian CBDs, the vacancy rate rose by $0.5\%$ to $14.8\%$ in H2 2025. Vacancy rates in non-CBD markets continue to lag CBD markets with the average vacancy rate rising $1.2\%$ to $18.5\%$ . Given positive net absorption, the rise in the CBD vacancy rate largely reflects increased supply from the delivery of new/refurb buildings in Melbourne and Brisbane rather than a weakening in demand. A significantly thinner supply pipeline in 2026 is expected to see the CBD vacancy rate fall in 2026. - Canberra and Brisbane have the lowest vacancy rates amongst the capital cities at $10.2\%$ and $11.8\%$ respectively, whilst Melbourne and Perth are significantly higher at $19.0\%$ and $16.9\%$ , respectively. Adelaide has seen the strongest improvement over the past year with vacancy falling $0.9\%$ to $15.5\%$ . Sydney CBD's vacancy rate was broadly stable in H2 and stands at $13.8\%$ . Reflecting the trend of tenant demand in recent years, vacancy rates are lower in the most favoured CBD precincts, most notably Sydney's Core and Melbourne's Eastern Core and Civic precincts. Over the next three years, the development pipeline in major CBDs is forecast to deliver around 680,000 sqm of new supply - close to half the 10-year average. This compares to the last three years where new supply has totalled over 1.2 million sqm. - The pipeline looks particularly thin in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth. Developers face multiple pressures including high construction costs, elevated funding costs and higher cap rates which have increased economic rents and made it significantly harder for new developments to be feasible. This will lead to tighter leasing markets and consequently faster rental growth. Vacancy continues to rise Total vacancy rate $(\%)$ Source: Knight Frank Research, PCA Vacancy rates mixed across markets Total vacancy by market, Jan-25 vs Jan-26 $(\%)$ Source:Knight Frank Research, PCA Vacancy rates lower in preferred precincts Total vacancy at Jan-25, % Source:Knight Frank Research, PCA Prime CBD office supply tightening Historic and forecast completions by city ('000 sqm) Source: Knight Frank Research, PCA # Face rents drive growth # Positive rental growth across Australia, with Adelaide and Brisbane outperforming - Average prime net face rents continued to rise in Q4, with strong growth in Canberra $(4.1\%)$ , followed by Sydney $(1.9\%)$ , Brisbane $(1.1\%)$ , Adelaide $(0.7\%)$ , and Perth $(0.5\%)$ . Net face rents in Melbourne $(0.1\%)$ remained relatively steady in Q4. Over the past year, Adelaide $(11.6\%)$ and Brisbane $(11.4\%)$ have led the way, while growth has accelerated in Sydney $(7.1\%)$ , Canberra $(4.3\%)$ and Melbourne $(4.0\%)$ . Perth $(-0.4\%)$ has been more subdued but growth is expected to return in 2026. - Incentives were broadly stable across most capital cities in Q4. Sydney was the exception, tightening from $36.1\%$ to $35.6\%$ (gross) in Q4. This move was largely driven by the Core $(-0.7\%)$ and Barangaroo $(-1.0\%)$ . - With occupier demand weighted towards core CBD locations, the Core precincts in Sydney CBD and the East in Melbourne CBD have continued to out-perform with $11.8\%$ and $10.7\%$ net effective rent growth over the past year, respectively. This has created a significant gap between rents in core and non-core locations, with core rents $55\%$ higher in Sydney and $75\%$ higher in Melbourne. - Looking forward, sustained demand and declining levels of new development – particularly new premium buildings – will aid prime rental growth and lower vacancy rates over the medium term. Economic rents remain well-above expected market rents, making the construction of new office towers largely unviable, concentrating tenant demand into existing buildings. Strong rent growth in several CBDs Annual net face rent growth & net effective rent growth $(\%)$ Prime incentives stabilise Rent growth strongest in favoured precincts Net face rent growth vs net effective rent growth $(\% \mathrm{y / y})$ Core precinct rents continue to pull away Average CBD net effective rents by precinct (\)/sqm) and spread between precincts (%) We like questions, if you've got one about our research, or would like some property advice, we would like to hear from you. You can also click here to subscribe to our research. Ben Burston Chief Economist +61290366756 Ben.Burston@au.knightfrank.com Andrea Roberts Office Leasing +61290366703 Andrea.Roberts@au.knightfrank.com Al Carpenter Valuations +61290366662 Al.Carpenter@au.knightfrank.com Alistair Read Senior Economist +61450831899 Alistair.Read@au.knightfrank.com Rob Sewell Capital Markets +61290366847 Rob.Sewell@au.knightfrank.com Lisa Atkins Asset Management Services +61396044710 Lisa. Atkins@au.knightfrank.com