2025-05-28-Jefferies-索夫卡特（SCT）_初步观点_大额交易助力2025财年_但带来更严峻的可比数据_8页_124kb

Conclusion

The report concludes that Softcat is performing well and benefits from larger deals driving FY25 guidance to low-teens operating profit growth, upgrading from low single digits. However, this creates tougher comps for FY26. Despite strong performance, Softcat is rated UNDERPERFORM with a price target of £1,385, representing a -22% discount from current price. The valuation suggests it trades at a higher premium compared to peers like Sage (FCF ~4%) and Bytes (FCF ~5%), indicating better value elsewhere, but risks include macro factors and growth challenges.

Key Points from Analysis

• Softcat had strong gross and operating profit growth in Q3, linked to broader IT spending and larger deals.
• FY25 operating profit growth guidance increased from low single digits to low teens (c2-3%), but this does not necessarily extend to outer years due to stricter comparisons in FY26.
• The company is valued using DCF with a 9.5% WACC; key risks include lower returns on growth initiatives and macroeconomic downturns.
• Peer comparison: Softcat's FCF is estimated at 3.6%, below competitors like Sage (~4%) and Bytes (~5%), leading to recommendations of seeking better opportunities.
• Related research includes mixed analyst opinions, with some questioning sustainability of forecasts.
• Analyst certifications confirm personal views, and conflicts of interest noted in Jefferies' business relationships.

Overall Assessment

Softcat's good performance is tempered by valuation concerns and external factors, posing risks to sustained growth. Investors should consider alternatives given the UNDERPERFORM rating amidst high comps.